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Well done
Nice to see the BOD clear up any ambiguity with an official RNS. Medco left in no doubt that they need to pay up, or F-off...
I too am thinking of adding more but I'll wait a few days to see what the reaction is to Tuesday's update.
I’ll be adding more tommorrow morning, this can’t go for less than 55p
Putting our 20% share of Tanzania LNG up for sale at only 25% (75% discount) of what we achieved for our last 20% we sold ...... would give us 35p/s
I would take that on top of +60p from Medco
95p/s that is more in line with a realistic valuation imo.
Back in September our Stategic Update stated:
"Consider options to unlock the potential value in our LNG assets - value that is not today reflected in our share price despite a rapidly improving LNG landscape. We intend to ensure that our shareholders share appropriately in any value subsequently realised..."
"Consider options" .... so lets get those 'options' in play.
Having given more thought about Medco, it makes little sense to go for, well I wouldn't even call it optimistic, more like stupidity opening potential offer of 48.5p..... why, knowing you will not be successful let alone achieve anywhere close to that !
Are Medco after just after our SE Asian assets, to me it appears so, when they value Ophir at 48.5p
If this is the case our board should be looking for takers of our Mexican and Tanzania assets. Shell or Pavilion should be interested Tanzania with 15 Tcf of gross contingent resource, net contingent (2C) resource of 3 Tcf (501mmboe)
Sell SE Asian at +60p and get Tanzania and Mexico sold at the same time.
Sum of the parts has to be more than 48.5p, does it not ?
Could Shell or Pavilion be our boards white rabbit out of the hat ?
gla
The times the oil industry are in now, no one wants to spend billions exploring, not even the big boys! so it's easier, less time consuming and a lot cheaper to takeover a smaller company's assets!
Ophir are sitting in a pretty position. To larger oilers they are a very attractive buy. With great assets and almost no debt which is very important to potential buyers.
Ophir would be far better knocking back any offers that come in just now and start building up its cash reserves and see what progress can be made on Tanzania, There will be definitely more buyers prepared to grab this company up.
For a bit of fun does anyone care to speculate on what will happen this week? For me it's; - Official offer from Medco that is slightly higher than the 48.5p, perhaps 51p per share. - Board to reject offer - Potential for a third party to show their hand GLA
Thanks for the response Munch... will be an interesting week indeed
Like Faroe Petroleum ... ??
Presumably there would need to be a shareholders vote to accept any deal. Difficult to imagine all the institutional holders listed in the recent forms accepting a deal based on 48p, when their involvement would have started at probably a much higher price. Particularly true if the next update is favourable. IMHO this low bid may just be an opening gambit..
This is going to be bought for a song and long term holders are going to be shafted, I can hear it coming and it stinks.
Munch,
You must remember that NO offer has been tabled formally atm so we haven't had the need to reject one!
Next week Medco will formally bid imo ..... but certainly not at 48.5p or less.
"This morning, Medco submitted an updated possible offer to the Board of Ophir at 48.5 pence per Ophir ordinary share and subsequently made a unilateral announcement without any further discussion.
This announcement does not amount to a firm intention to make an offer under Rule 2.7 of the Code and there can be no certainty that any offer will be made.
This announcement has been made by Ophir without the approval of Medco or Medco Global.."
------------------
Davstock, could be, although our last year it was on 16th !
Toppprize. I said it will rise if they rejected bid based on the offer / valuation coming in much higher .... now Medco have shown their hand I can see the sp falling ...eg. Bid of 55-60p gets rejected but sp roses based on the fact it’s still 40-50% above current price. The fact that the price is currently around where the bid is at or 10% off where it might come in ...... many day traders / short term traders will sell knowing that it’s not going much higher .... good luck. Can see a lot of action here next week
I don't think they mean at COB, a pre close announcement is an update before the final results I think? So should be first thing and presentation later.
Cheers
Davstock,
"..will be our pre-close trading statement on 15 January 2019 when we shall update investors on the progress made throughout our portfolio and the advances to our production and cashflow base in Southeast Asia..."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=OPHR&ArticleCode=o4o7u4yh&ArticleHeadline=Ophir_Energy_Block_R_Licence_Equatorial_Guinea
Hi NewK, Where did you see that the update is at the COB on the 15th?
Thanks
The fact that the board have chosen to deliver the trading update at the CoB 15th is NO coincidence (deadline for 8.3 notifications). This has been planned and as such, unless our board are in cahoots with Medco, I expect a strong update both in terms of production and cash on hand, with a bit of luck a rabbit too.
This imo will put pressure on Medco to up their offer as I hope our SP will react well to our update.
Final offer from Medco imo will be 68p
gla
I totally agree that it all balances on the trade update. If the update is strong and the offer rejected then we could end up dropping immediately but then rising up above the offer prices, as clearly it would credible that the company value is higher. 50+p within a few months I'd estimate. If the update is weak/average then there could be a lot of pressure to accept the offer, as we'd be at risk of falling back to where we were (including for the impact of the PoO increase though). I'd guess somewhere 35-40p.
So now that Medco have shown their hand I think a lot of what happens next will depend on the trading update on Tuesday. I assume Medco have had access to this information as the books are open so to speak, perhaps the update is not as good as we anticipate but we will find out soon enough. My prediction (Not a wizard) was based on the SP range seeing as we had a spike to 50p and dropped back to low to mid 40s my assumption of a high 40s bid was correct albeit a guess like others here, after all the market rarely gets it wrong. Only time will tell what happens next, should Tuesday be a decent update we should tell Medco to take a long walk off a short cliff as over time we should be trading higher with the Santos assets and the ball of cash that brings in the coming years. Best of luck for next week all.
Munch box - you seem to contradict what you posted a few days ago that ‘when it gets rejected... and it will. The SP will rise’ please explain only a few days later you think it will fall if rejected??
Well said davstock
We really have no reason to sell up
Unless it is a very good offer
Debt free oil company with great cash flow
Ophir need to Hold tight ..
Would be logical to sell if that is your belief....and buy back in if you believe the long term outcome.
The most important thing here that everyone should understand is that Ophir is a different company than it was in the past. No longer is it a cash burning explorer. For the first time it has true assets that will constantly bring in cash. They will be debt free in 12 months or so. The share should start to reflect this as soon the next couple of results start to emerge.
There won't be many oil companies around the world that will bring in such a substantial cash flow and not have any debt.