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Azvalor have added over +3.3m shares over 6 consecutive sessions
Aggressive buying indeed imo, question is, is it for them or a third party under an undisclosed "gentlemen's agreement" !!
Either way, it shows intent !!!!
gla
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.28%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.13%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.44%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.325%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's over 250,000 shares
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +260,000 shares at 44.87 on Friday 18th !! note ADDED
Prudential / M&G added +450,000 shares at 44.9 and 44.96 on 18th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +266,000 shares at 45.72 on Monday 21st !! note ADDED
It was similar POO levels The board have been very clear, 48.5p has been flat out rejected. Would think a 20% uplift to that will have to be a starting point for discussion, so we’re back to 56p minimum and maybe they can pull a deal off where that is only for the SE Asian assets leaving value in Tanzanian and Mexico to be realised separately
A good uplift today, maybe the share accumulation is finally helping! I feel a revised offer coming...
I don’t have the charts to hand but I’m sure the original offer was when poo was similar to now and the sp was around these levels also? Have Medco just watched the sp drop and get greedy reducing their bid? Let’s be honest they will have wrote fortuna off in there valuation anyway so that was just another reason to try take the piss.
All those buys and with 84% held now, you got to feel confident something is happening.
GLA
NewKOTB
Updates appreciated.
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.28%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.13%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.44%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.287%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's over 250,000 shares
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +260,000 shares at 44.87 on Friday 18th !! note ADDED
Prudential / M&G added +450,000 shares at 44.9 and 44.96 on 18th !! note ADDED
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.18%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.13%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.44%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.287%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +260,000 shares at 44.87 on Friday 18th !! note ADDED
Expected an RNS today with revised offer. Must happen this week imo
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.18%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.10%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.44%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.287%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +260,000 shares at 44.87 on Friday 18th !! note ADDED
Yep, they manage just 260k on Friday and looks like they are having an issue grabbing more today.
-----------------------
"They will need to move the bid up soon if Azvalor are still buying ..... fewer and fewer sellers on the market as the week has drawn on.
Azvalor will be lucky to get 250k shares today imo
Free float is getting smaller so any real buying pressure will be hard to counter."
POO is back to Nov 20 2018 prices amd climbing drammatically. This is the POO pre the first offer around 58p. While Fortuna is no more they will have to raise their bid back to the entry level of around 58p, trry and buy the SE asia assets separately or potentially walk away if they feel there is not a knats chance in hell the BOD would entertain an offer. It does feel that they would need to go to 70p to get any traction from shareholders as most are long suffering but my suspicion is an offer around mid 50s in next port of call and share price is finally over 45p with some expectation of the offer being extended. Having said all that the way Medco have flippantly made offers is not exactly comforting as these offers are generally a little more considered and Medco could appear to be opportunists.
Soon. In the region of 50's is my guess
I feel the reason medco made the bid was due to low oil price in the hope of getting this on the cheap. Clearly situation now changed and wouldn't surprise me if they walked with tail between their legs. I for one won't be dissapointed.
I feel like the recovery in oil could give Medco an excuse to revert back to their first bid without looking to foolish. 58p at the absolute minimum, tempted to grab some more shares but then if you can’t control that greed you can’t control your money.
Always a pleasure to read your evaluation.
Your last paragraph hits the nail on the head for me as I think we have seen the bottom for oil now and in 6 months we will be creating some serious revenue,I too think Medco won’t let this opportunity slide.
On the other hand I won’t be dissapointed if nothing comes from these negotiations as we will see 70-80p by year end regardless if poo keeps stable.
That is the question Rookie .... imo it all hinges on whether our board are willing to split our assets.
I do think to make it a worth while bid, one that's got the backing of the board and major holders it would need to begin at 68p for purely our SE Asian portfolio, unfortunately I don't think Medco will begin at that, but may well be their final bid. So it's 50/50 imo if a deal will ever get agreed.
Our board would need to issue a plan alongside any part-sale that can also return value from what remains, Tanzania and Mexico plus any mileage we can get out of Fortuna.
The way forward would be a little messy should we go down the road of splitting off our SEA assets, both in terms of how cash / value is returned to shareholders and how the remaining portfolio is handled. Remember, we would loose all income and as this would not be a short process safeguards would need to be in place in terms of available cash.
The one major plus is we have +84%, at least of institutional holders, they know how this game could playout and atm are happy to hold, and in several cases add significantly. That gives me great confidence.
The deal, when it arrives and not if, imo would need to be good otherwise we walk imo
As a footnote our remaining portfolio is estimated achievable returns at between $120m - $770m (13p-85p) as it stands atm.
'D' day is only 6 trading days away for Medco to play their hand or walk away for 6 months. By then I would hope we are trading at more than 68p so makes Medco task near impossible to re-ignite any approach. This is Medco's best shot, and I don't think they will waste it, but who knows.
gla
What bid are you going for NewKOTB?
Think we can safely say we will have and RNS on Monday .... CODE 1 ... ALERT .... ALERT ... ALERT (lol)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
18-Jan-19 17:34:03 44.90 1 Sell* 45.10 45.40 0.45 O
They will need to move the bid up soon if Azvalor are still buying ..... fewer and fewer sellers on the market as the week has drawn on.
Azvalor will be lucky to get 250k shares today imo
Free float is getting smaller so any real buying pressure will be hard to counter.
It's a large bet whatever their game...that makes them the second largest holder now.
Azvalor have added £1.2m in shares since Monday.
Aggressive buying indeed imo, question is, is it for them or a third party under an undisclosed "gentlemen's agreement" !!
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.18%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.10%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.44%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.25%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Strange action by L&G over the past sessions, although they still hold +36m shares !
Legal & General reduced -500,000 shares at 45.1262 from 5.5% to 5.43%
Legal & General reduced -900,000 shares at 45.12 from 5.43% to 5.3%.
Legal & General reduced -600,000 shares at 45.04 from 5.3% to 5.22%
Now net adding once again, still at 5.22%
Only 4 trades in the first couple of hours... what's going on?
All they have to do is offer/pay fair value which would also be satisfactory to their own shareholders. Not the derisory indicative bid they made.