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Can see it get rejected and mid 30s again.
I was correct. My guess was on point. Thank you.
Totally agree!
They are trying to ruffle up the shareholders. The starting price in Oct was 58p and probably would have gone to 70p and more if Fortuna could have been agreed.
Re reading the first offer and noticing Medco initial offer potentionally included contingent value rights on fortuna, that to me says they had valued the company under the assumption the licence wouldn’t be renewed and 58p was their valuation on all other assets.
I can’t see how they have back tracked so much other than an attempt to get the sp to plummet?
It really depends what %age a lot is and whether they would be better off taking what's left and investing elsewhere...
Difficult to call. But there were a lot of big buys after close yesterday. Interesting week ahead for sure.
There is very little chance of Medco succeeding in getting this at 50p. A lot of the Institutions will hold a higher average than that given a lot of them have been on board for years!
The interesting thing now with Medco going rogue with the statement and not letting Ophir know and then Ophir countering that with their statement without Medco''s approval has changed the conversations they can now have with each other!
Yes, that is a good article. And all the institutions who've been piling in will still make some money. A bird in the hand, and all that. I was hoping for 55p, maybe the insties will try and squeeze 50p out of Medco. That would still be a great bargain for them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/medco-energi-offer-for-ophir-energy-has-shrunk-as-oil-slides-hfd930bvt?shareToken=f932d0033582b306e478fe4ee5899738
puts it in a nutshell...
I know it sounds unlikely but anyone from medco side could have a position through any number of intermediaies privately and made a good 20% return from initiial offer and since they know the offer prices can play the piper. for medco to hold 0 shows no interest at all as surely they should put their money where their mouth is? If this was hostile they would have 5% at least so they can pick off shareholders? I cant work it out as their offer is not even close and holding no stock shows any offer has no teeth.
is the form8 announcement not more to do with the takeover code rule
"If the offeror acquires an interest in shares in an offeree company (i.e. a target) at a price higher than the value of the offer, the offer must be increased accordingly."
i.e. they are stating that they do not hold any shares at a value higher than the offer.
If they make offers then they'll find out what the price is to get >50%, as we've seen that doesn't mean they have to talk to too many people. Who knows where that sweet spot truly is though?! I guess we'll find out, or find out where it isn't.
I think they can approach large share holders and make an offer for they're holdings? They must have a game plan.
It does seem to have gotten quite hostile! I can't really figure out what the game is though. It is baffling that Medco own no shares, could they have an agreement to buy from an II, or would that have had to be declared?
Must be exactly that, hence why the bod released all previous offers to let share holders know they are dreaming. It seems a very unprofessional approach by Medco.
Just seen the form 8 announcement from Medco which they filed just before 6pm. Showing zero holding? WTF?
To be offered 58 then 53.5 and 2 weeks later drop it to 48.5 for no reason is ridiculous. The biggest point everyone should be aware of is that Medco announced the possible offer today before Ophir even knew about the latest offer. That tells me that this has gone hostile slightly. It looks like Medco has got fed up with Ophir not biting so they have taken matters into their own hands and dropped the Dec 20th price down to 48.5. Medco knew on the 20th that Fortuna was a goner and oil has recovered so the they are at it. Don't be fooled with this very low starting offer.
Hopefully this has made the BOD angry and ready for a fight!!!
Couple of humdingers there... get the feeling they know something?
Surely got to see true value of a minimum of 50% from here, I just hope the competition sits up and notices the value/potential.
i cant see this getting anywhere close to where the BOD/shareholders would accept. To put in a derisory 45p offer is just cheeky. The problem now is they have tabled such a low offer that i cant see Medco and OE getting close to agreement. Had they started at 55p they might have then raised offfer up to 65p and got the deal. I think this will now not go to any level worthy of acceptance and even if Medco could pay 65p or higher it would now look ridiculous to their own shareholders why they would increase the offer by 50% from their initial offer. I think this one is a going to be damp squib.
"..On 22 October 2018, Medco made an unsolicited approach to Ophir to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Ophir at an offer price of 58.0 pence.."
Interesting that from the 23rd of October, our SP was pulled sharply down, within 3 weeks of the unsolicited approach we had lost 23% on NO news.
Our excellent drilling update RNS and tidying up of our Debt Facility RNS and pay down of debt that resulted in a +10% rise in SP was quickly dragged back-down within just a week.
All this time our resident BOT was working overtime firing in hundreds and hundreds of automated trades
Tell me our SP has not been managed by an interested party that want out assets for fire sale price. Our board knew this so called them out with their EG Licence update that very cleverly included "evaluating the options available to the Company to maximise value for shareholders for the rest of the portfolio".
We know that the 48.5p offer has no chance so it's interesting that after the traders left and we went red briefly on the day the SP closed up 5%.
Over 18m shares traded today, I expect alot more 8.3's on Monday / Tuesday as Medco have not withdrawn as of yet.
Medco want us at the best price .... my guess is this saga has legs and the market thinks so too.
We just want another interested party to join in ..... or the board to pull a rabbit.
gla
duster,
I think the fact it was not reported meant that our board thought it was a derisory offer. So in terms of market rules, they are allowed to refute it without informing the market. All above board.
Now, this is where it should get interesting. Logic follows that they were advised or feel the company was worth alot more, probably in the region of 80p imo as per house broker.
So now the board have to earn their crust imo .... get 80p on the table or get the SP to re-rate and fast.
BE can never be seen as a bad result so good luck with your next adventure.
Me, going the distance which ever way this falls as long as the 15th ops update is on track afaic.
atb
Just came to say the same thing - curiously strong finish :)
That was somewhat unexpected. 45p
NKOTB
Got out today at BE not sure I like the way this has been dealt with an approach at 58p in October not even reported to market.
Not playing with a straight bat so out
ATB
Senn