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No problem Autonomy1
Yes the pipeline has been close since March.
They had to get the internal politics sorted out 1st of all between Baghdad & the KRC. That has taken quite a bit of time. Baghdad had to show the KRG that it held all the trump cards, but at the same time get them onboard with the way the whole country is going to be run in future.
I think the 3 days comment was very optimistic to say the least, but at the same time it was a very public statement by those at the highest level telling those below them that they want this sorted out as a matter of urgency.
So now no-one is any doubt as to what is required.
They just need to find the right "addendums" to make it work for everyone.
You have to bear in mind that the existing Baghdad oil & gas contracts are completely different to the ones the KRG issued and as such, they have to alter the KRG ones so that they work for the APIKUR (our group) the KRG & Baghdad so that they don't disadvantage all the other IOC working in the rest of Iraq otherwise they'll open up a massive can of worms for themselves.
No good getting the KRG bit fixed to find other IOC's shutting down production or refusing to drill new wells etc until they get similar terms to APIKUR members.
Hopefully not to much longer to wait ....
LOTM
Thanks for the info
It just seems that to me that they are finding any excuse not to open it.What is it about 9 months of closure.Why couldnt the contracts have been sorted out in the summer so that when Turkey was ready to open it again everything was ready to go
Last week it was going to open in 3 days now i read that Ioc have only met with Baghdad once so it will drag on for more weeks until the contracts/debt is sorted
Hi Autonomy1,
I think your wrong about Baghdad. They have to pay the wages of all the KRG staff & that it quite a monthly sum. They also have to pay Turkey for the pipeline if there isn't a certain amount of oil flowing through it.
So by not having KR production they are forking out a lot of cash with nothing new to show for it. Get the KR oil flowing properly again & the income from it will cover most if not all of the above & probably gives them some money to distribute to other regions as well.
But your right about the contracts being a problem & this is where they need to find a solution & soon to get that oil & revenue flowing again.
LOTM
I just cant see a solution to the reopening of the pipeline,Baghdad are not not bothered if it opens or not and i cant see them paying the debt of the Krg to do so.The Krg need it open but have no money to pay the 1 billion that is owed and Ioc wont pump until they get the money owed.Baghdad want different contracts with the Ioc so its a real mess
Hi Mr.Spacetomato
I'm not someone who follows "technicals & charts"
Yes the sharp drop in crude prices recently has surprised me, but there again Biden is weak & past it. Otherwise Iran & Russia wouldn't be exporting like they are now.
Saudi's apparently need around $85 to balance there hefty budgets, so I'd expect them to cut production further, others may join in.
This of course causes a problem further down the road when crude consumption picks back up, not enough oil above ground in storage, which will then cause prices to spike yet again.
All of that of course assumes things in the Middle East don't get any worse, if they do then who knows what's going to happen.
LOTM
"Technical Analysis Daily Light Crude Oil Futures
The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment.
The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop.
The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements.
Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels"
And I see that China market dropped 2% today! Yesterday all major oilers went down big time Yesterday.
What's your take on What's happening to the markets this week? I thought OPEC restrictions and US cracking on Russian oil tankers would have prevente a drastic drop on the oil price?
Someone is buying up Genel stock big time at the moment, could well be the directors
I can't get a quote on 10,000 share at all now.
Barely able to get a quote on 5,000 ( sometimes it gives it other times refuses) & the price is 1.1p over the current offer price of 84.4p quote is 85.5xxx
And if you want to sell them volume they'll give you a premium for it.
Could be an interesting close
LOTM
Just saw this in the share news
Jefferies starts Genel Energy with 'hold' - price target 95 pence
LOTM
By the looks of it there are 4 refineries in the KRG
1. Kar refinery (Kalak or Keurgosk)
2. Bazian Refinery
3. Lanaz Refinery
4. Tawke Refinery
With a combined capacity to process in excess of 250,000 BOPD
Wouldn't it be a good idea for APIKUR to buy an interest in 1 or 2 of the refineries so that they can get income from the whole process ?
At the moment they only get mid $30 for selling there oil to the refineries, but by owning part of the refineries themselves they would get a much bigger slice of the pie than there getting right now.
LOTM
Back to wanting over the offer price for 5K again ! by near 0.5p not as bad as the 1.5p over the other day !
Its one of those shares that goes quiet then all of a sudden there is a burst of interest ........ its all about timing
I wonder if the directors are busy buying more at the moment!
LOTM
Roxi, I’ve started holding here, as this could double on news, and after update I’m feeling a more positive (still got my GKP).
Over GKP, Genel always slow to catch up, maybe later today we will see some movement ?
Why is gkp on an another planet compared to genl? They have had better rise and managed to sustain it.
More liquidity?
Genel are encouraged with what's going on at the moment, and exports im sure will be soon be flowing again,
One of the main questions that needs to be asked during the meeting is ...........
Can you please give an indication if Genel was able to reclaim outstanding debt in October similar to DNO who have stated publicly that they got $8M back of there outstanding amounts due to higher production levels. So on a 75/25 split it would suggest that Genel should have been able to recover close to $3M of the $110M that's outstanding ?
LOTM
Jim800
Its not the KRG, the oil that is produced from the field is being sold to local refinery's rather than through the pipeline to Turkey. Now there is the possibility the refineries are owned by the KRG or there families but even then exporting the oil will be more beneficial for them in $ terms.
Over 50% of the oil DNO/Genel produce belongs to the KRG, they are not able to export the oil & hence do not receive the much higher price to fund the Government & there slush funds (so there the ones who lose out most in actual fact)
The KRG have also agreed to supply to SOMO (Iraq Government) 400,000 bopd from there region in return for the funding provided by the central government to the region.
Given the tie-up now between the KRG & Iraq regarding oil/gas the arbitration award (if any) in effect will be against the Iraq government !
They are trying to attract overseas investors etc, not settling such a case properly would not help there cause at all.
The KRG are the ones under the most pressure right now.
LOTM
So KRG have access to v cheap oil at about one third of international prices. Do you think they want the ITP back open? Does the profit KRG might make (if Iraq give them any) from international sales outweigh the savings they’re currently making on our cheap oil?
Not paying any arbitration award, not repaying outstanding Genel / DNO debts from previous years and having a monopoly on local cheap oil might seem a more attractive option - certainly in the short term.
RNS
No surprises. With local sales, treading water financially.
Debt slightly reduced (could/should have done more imo)
Morocco/Somaliland continue to progress at glacial speed.
Bina Bawi court hearing set for 2 weeks in February. The KRG has a history of fighting hopeless cases (see Dana £2b successful action for the same sort of thing).
BUT, here’s the big point, talks on ITP have seemingly made dramatic progress in the past few days (outside scope of today’s RNS, hence yesterday’s dramatic sp rise).
So fingers x’d.
Hi astle01,
Sorry my mistake I did look through all there announcements the other day, I was looking for it saying "Quarterly" in the announcement whereas they tend to call it "Trading & Operation's update".
Probably because they had used the word Quarterly in last week's advance announcement was why I was focused on that.
Thanks for the correction.
LOTM
LOTM-13
Genel has always done a Q3 trading and operations update. As they said on Twitter, "As usual for trading updates, Luke Clements, CFO, will host a short presentation and Q&A..."
Jim800
I only got back in last week due to the price going to a 52 week low compared to GKP which never re-trace to the same extend.
The heavy director buying in mid October was a massive hint in itself when you think about it.
They would already virtually know how the company did for the 3rd Quarter & then doing financial numbers etc when they never normally do something like that tomorrow. Is just a massive flag ( now we don't know if it is good news or bad on its own) but put the 2 things together & you're probably 90%+ chance that the news is good / very good otherwise why on earth would the directors put £3M into shares at that moment in time.
Never trust what's listed as buy's & sells, the best way to get a feel for what's going on is to put in some dummy trades & see where the actual bid/offer prices are.
I wasn't happy paying 82p mid morning but it just felt with everything else that was going on I wasn't going to get more stock under 80p ahead of tomorrow & as it kept moving up it never really looked like going back down :( so I ended up paying about 85p for another 2 bundles.
So I've got more stock than I really want to be holding & will sell some tomorrow or the next day depending on the news etc.
I was expecting a lot more volume in the closing auction, but it is what it is.
LOTM
Nice we have caught up, PF looking much better today, just a couple of small lagards to pick up, and ill be very happy