Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Beautiful CJ.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
Just a note to Myavian who took great pleasure telling us a couple of weeks ago that Fe had dipped intraday below $100
As we speak, it is $109.68 pt
UBS analyst turns positive on China's property market after being first to downgrade China Evergrande to sell three years ago:
https://twitter.com/CathyYuanZhang/status/1783689534737432609
Bothered….
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AAL/rejection-of-bhp-proposal/16441905
Livestock. Our immediate problem is whether our BoD can get the IOCA across the finish line. They do that and UFO will go from strength-to-strength off the back of Silver, and our other PGEs, for years to come!
And that excludes Brockman!!!
Good morning to you.
FG
What will drive silver to surge?
Right now, demand for silver is skyrocketing beyond its traditional uses to emerging technologies including electric vehicles and renewable energy projects. Much like gold, silver has been used as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures – I see no reason why this would not continue.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046176/are-we-facing-a-2010-like-silver-boom-1046176.html
I have said many times look at the Fenix example they went out there found a buyer negotiated a deal to pay it back by discounting per ton and in 12months had paid it back and were siting on a profit. They have already said they have the contractors and the costing all they have to do is go to China find the buyer and away we go. Or just JV it lol.
944T
Not really worried either way, it is what it is.
Alien Metals could be a marginal producer with low capex and high production cost, reasonable annual tonnage, decent mine life, with plenty of room to grow the resource. Fabulous infrastructure and great jurisdiction, in a commodity that will be in high demand for decades with build out of the words move to electrification. This means we have huge operational leverage, and will boom and bust with iron ore price, giving volatility to the share price.
OR
We JV and have done with all the worry, take our cut for all the hard work over the last 5 years (often it takes 10), all the stresses just go away, and we crack on as a revenue and cash flow generating company and develop the rest of JV our critical and battery metals portfolio.
Not trying to talk anyone into buying or holding here, as in the main what any of us say, won’t affect the success or failure of my investment. I’m only here the sentiment and community camaraderie.
Good evening one and all.
Fenix is a great example. Look at how they have hedged as prices have moved up. Trouble is we can’t hedge yet. It’s a perfect example of where UFO should be if we had been mining a year ago. I agree!
Well said Smiller.
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/bulk-buys-how-iron-ore-junior-fenix-resources-sees-a-pathway-to-a-long-term-future/
DEMAND
Those with lower grades may want higher grades to blend.
What about Fortescue's low grade iron ore?
The bad news for Fortescue is that the broker believes that the discount will widen on its low grade iron ore in the coming years.
And given how much the miner is planning to spend on its decarbonisation plans, this could have consequences for its free cash flow and ultimately its dividends.
Goldman expects Fortescue's discount to the benchmark price to be 89% in 2024, 86% in 2025, and 83% in 2026 and 2027.
PRICE
FE62% regulates and fluctuates between a range through supply and demand.
https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Iron%20ore
AUD/FE divergence
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/215/aud-iron-ore
Higher highs and higher lows in Global Iron Ore price.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
Commodity prices and stagflation empirical study.
Our analysis suggests that the individual stagflationary effects of commodity prices and the dollar on non-commodity export-dependent economies have compounded each other over this period as the two variables increased in tandem. This was a break from the historical pattern, when commodity prices and dollar used to move in opposite directions, so that their individual effects on stagflation risk tended to offset each other.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303f.htm
FOB, C1, AISC
Old FMG study from 2015 says 12% of their cost comes from Oil price.
https://fiig.com.au/research-and-education/fiig-research-news-item/2016/11/23/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics
C1 $20+ in 2021.
https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2021/10/29/fortescue-consolidates-costs-as-iron-ore-shipments-peak/
Alwyn said we can make money above $85! I believe the current average Iron ore price fluctuates could be $100. I believe JV partner will mine the ore much cheaper than our AISC. I believe JV partners will drive a hard bargain, but the Ore will get mined and Alien Metals will be transformed from a loss making business that dilutes about £2m per annum to a revenue and cash flow generating business. I have nothing more hopeful I can say than that and I have no idea what the share price will be.
Can crash* but the economics are enough demonstrated by Fênix
Enuff , how are fenix in the game then and have been for few years now? Obviously it cant crash
Sinter. Out of interest, did you see the AA Q1 realised price per tonne from South Africa? I remember quite some months ago telling CJ to get real on the spot price of ore v what should go in to a realistic model. At current prices (real not spot) we are marginal supplier. If they drop $20 or so, we are out of the game.
Sorry. I want this to succeed but…
AA still in the running then?
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bhp-proposes-39-billion-takeover-over-anglo-form-copper-mining-giant
why would a larger iron ore producer with fob costs of nearer $20, spend the $85 in our development study?,
surely they would jv and use their own cheaper contracts, or renegotiate due to economies of scale.
they surely would also not spend the semi variable and fixed costs that small operators need to spend.
i would imagine the jv partner who benefits the most from our road construction would offer the best jv terms, and we would have the most leverage over i.e. no capex funding, no road.
bhp group limited
anglo american plc
fortescue metals group limited
han**** prospecting pty limited
mineral resources limited
please form an orderly queue.
guy, rob and elizabeth are just conferring with their advisory panel and iron ore specialist consultants.
we may be in touch during the early part of next week.
Norm there is no right answer . I guess if you go down contract route we need to borrow or get the capital upfront and that comes with risks. I think I lean more towards a good jv with a good miner who we can continue to work with on the other DSO sites and they cover the upfront costs
Hopefully some good news get the share price up 0.30 for a start
Tbh.. the issue was never "can we sell the product" that's a given.. the demand is there 100% the issue is can UFO get the funding to get the mine / road to get the Ore / to screen it and load it into the trucks and away..
For me the JV model doesnt really work on Hanc0ck.. Happy to be proved wrong but I just dont see that the margins are wide enough.
with Ore at around $110 and FoB at $85 then $25 Gross per tonne.. there are likely other costs like further Drilling etc.... so even if its a 2Mt producing Mine how much would UFO get from it ?
As a shareholder surely everyone wants to see the maximum profit realised.. For me a mining / management contract would be much better.. a JV suggests that an "earn in" agreement is on the cards..
New UFO Linkedin post:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/alienmetals/posts/?feedView=all
His Excellency The Honourable Stephen Smith Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom also speaking
https://uk.embassy.gov.au/lhlh/HC.html
Someone has friends in high places.
Well done again to the UFO management team putting this together. Getting serious.
Very, very interesting 🧩🧩🧩
IMO good news definitely coming before the event.
If I were an exec of UFO about attend a presentation next Wednesday. I would put out an RNS even if it were relatively trivial.
There are many items that could be updated in a very positive way :-)
agreed, 👍 need to monitor likes on linked in, x retweets etc, of neighbours, financiers and advisors.
……………………………..
o considering various longer-term financing options, including continued discussions with strategic partners regarding offtake funding, debt, and equity project funding in connection with the han**** project and the pinderi hills pgm, silver and base metals project; and
o actively exploring the potential for the sale or joint venture of non-core assets providing further funding for the company.
? appointment of technical director, mr. rob mosig, to the board as a non-executive director, who brings significant expertise in exploration, development, and strategic partnering, whilst having direct experience on the company's pgm and base metals project in the west pilbara. following rob's appointment, mr. alwyn vorster has stepped down from the board to focus on his other directorships and business commitments. alwyn will continue to assist alien metals as an advisor to the board on the han**** project development.
? the company has further strengthened its iron ore team with the appointment of an iron ore expert from global mining consulting firm csa global (now erm). csa global has extensive iron ore exploration and development expertise, including significant roles with fenix resources ltd (asx: fex), which transformed from an iron ore explorer to a producer within 18 months.
? an advisory board is to be established, consisting of technical and mining industry experts to guide the company on the various strategic options currently available to alien metals for the financing and/or development of its key assets.
? the project and technical team will continue to focus on the han**** project, progressing exploration to increase the resources and reserves as set out in the development study on (aim: 8 february 2024). the study demonstrated strong economic returns from the han**** project, as outlined below.
……………………….
hopefully news before the london event next week.
Yeah that makes sense. I think the JV will be our neighbour to the north... That road is mighty important.
Sorry Max, I was replying to Smiller, and saw your post after I’d finished……what he said 👇
They have recently said in the last interview we are not “Miners”, so the AA offtake and funding must have been discounted at board level, and not be one of the many offers they have received and are looking at both Hanc0ck and P.Hills.