In simple terms, it's worth what someone is willing to pay. On 5/8, your Fair Value was £1. In another post on the same day, it was £1.05 and today it is 95p. I am sure that you can point to things / consensus changing to validate your figures changing quite so rapidly, but that is exactly my point - what is stated today, may not hold true the next; it is largely meaningless. The 'bet' as it were, over whatever time frame one is in for, is will it go up or down - i.e. buy now or sell now. What one person or group believes something is worth means naff all if every other person or group believes the opposite. In general terms your position seems more optimistic for next year I believe (at this point in time!) - now, should that hold true, it is merely a question of at what level one feels comfortable buying in at. Personally, I am more than happy at these levels and believe, not negating events beyond our control as ever, that these prices offer good value based on a 6-8 month time frame. Of course, I may be wrong, but all I state is opinion and dressed as exactly that. An extract from one of your posts not long ago (one that I still believe was a better summary of the 'current' position!!):
Experts/analysts only came out pre update, which was solid by the way, analysing the impending 'profit warning'.
I have high expectations of Club Med and Fosun steering this back onto the tarmac.
Margins are improving, debt coming down and digital transformation gaining momentum so these short term jitters shouldn't concern anyone too much.
I don't agree. The markets are too erratic to really predict right now. These are tricky times. Is TCG really fundamentaly much different from say 12 months ago.? I don;'t think so and it has taken some important commercial initiatives this year. Realistic but not pessimistic.
What`s Changed? Not so long ago 127p was your true valuation of this company,debt down,oil down,bookings up,is it because The company say ¬we probably lost £25 million on Tunisia? Surely with every thing now going in TCG`s favour this forecast loss will be downgraded,and maybe,just maybe you for once have got it wrong.
We stayed ahead of 100 throughout the mini crisis. All irrational incoherent madness. Glad the Chinese are on holiday so that we can take breath. May remain a little choppy but for me 108 is a psychological barrier - let's hope it sticks. And thanks to Easy Jet for some handsome figures. Today TCG up 4.5%. TUI up 1%.
I bought in last monday at 102. I intend to hold for a while as i believe in this company in the long term. A nice boost in sp in the short term would be nice to see though and i hope the forcasted 25 million will be less due to the lousy weather. Im currently sat in Newcastle airport waiting to fly out to Florida for two weeks. Good luck to all, except shorters :)
...gets my vote. No charts, no analysis, just rain :-). Sort of cheers me up when I keep having to pop the heating on for an hour in the evenings!! ... doesn't quite make up for the fact that the wife has just tried to flood the house with an overflowing bath though - child saves the day so he's in my good books (for a change lol). Some irony, however, that I was just leaving to go in to town to buy some wellies; the great bloke in the sky definitely has a sense of humour at times!
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