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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
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Jersey Oil&gas Share Chat (JOG)



Share Price: 61.00Bid: 60.00Ask: 62.00Change: -1.00 (-1.61%)Faller - Jersey Oil&gas
Spread: 2.00Spread as %: 3.33%Open: 62.00High: 62.00Low: 61.00Yesterday’s Close: 62.00


Share Discussion for Jersey Oil&gas


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yoyo
Posts: 690
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.50
be
28 May '19
nice to get an upgrade on the 25mbo.

GLA
 
Tommy393
Posts: 23
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.50
31st SLR
28 May '19
I agree with you Bullson .
I’m with Dick , looking forward to an exciting few months !
bullson
Posts: 129
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
RE: 31st SLR
28 May '19
I am with you Dick!
Nice start to the week and I can only assume there is more to come...we got a while to go until we reach a fair value again but we knew this would be the case...but I am very certain this will happen within the next 3-4 months.
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
27 May '19
Thanks for your insights, noix & bullson. All interesting stuff. Recent disappointments will have doubled the directors' resolve.

Let's hope they can buy some cash-generating production to help fund future exploration.

I watched the 5 March video i/v with Malcy again. AB said they'd run a NPV10 value over 25MMboe at Verbier (JOG 4.5MMboe) and this showed it being worth £30m alone, The 'valuation' talk is 15mins 30secs in.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/03/core-finance-ceo-interview-andrew-benitz-of-jersey-oil-gas/

It rarely pays to look and sound confident. Lesson learned (inc by me).

With MER already appearing highly likely to be a rare public sector success story, no-one is going to walk away from 25MMboe in Verbier with the opportunities that already exists for tie-back to existing infrastructure - and whatever gets added makes the Verbier case more appealing.

For those willing to embrace risk and who are not already 'full up', looks a good time to consider an investment here but wdik? Certainly much to look forward to here - there won't be any shortage of activity over the next 12 months and beyond.

dyor
share_talk
Posts: 6,427
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
Weekly Oil & Gas Highlights
26 May '19
Everyone was disappointed with the result of the Verbier-2 appraisal well, which last month failed to encounter its targeted reservoir, though untested potential remains for the project.

Originally, the discovery was estimated to host 25mln to 135mln barrels of crude and, in the wake of Verbier-2, it was thought that the actual size of the asset is closer to the low-end of that range.

https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1132615373617008641

https://www.share-talk.com/weekly-oil-and-gas-highlights-26th-may-2019/
noix
Posts: 252
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
26 May '19
Why on earth do they not include an edit function.
That should have read "aforementioned discoveries."
noix
Posts: 252
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
26 May '19
90% plus of 10y and the J2 reservoir lies in 20/5d and 21/1a. They are the two blocks to get in the 31st SLR, certainly in this part of the GBA, If you look closely, 20/5e is a relatively small block and only shaves the aforementioned prospects discoveries.
bullson
Posts: 129
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
26 May '19
Noix...I typed my last entry while you posted yours;) Funny how we both pointed to a very similar conclusion.
bullson
Posts: 129
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
26 May '19
Thx Dick. Shame 20/5e with the 10 year well is excluded...I guess it is still owned by Repsol Sinoptech and they only handed back the block where the J2 prospects sits on. In any case the owner of that block (20/5e) will be very happy to see a GBA hub coming up to make a development/production for the 10 year well also commercial...who knows our group (JOG, Equinor and Cieco) might have already discussed with them how to work together across all the blocks...it would be a win win. As I posted before they (Repsol Sinoptech) tried to sell Buchan/10year well and J2 a while back when they still held all the licenses but obviously couldn't find a farm in partner at that time. But now there is a completely new spin to this driven by the OGA and of course healthier oil prices.
All looks very good and exciting to me.
noix
Posts: 252
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
26 May '19
I'd be amazed if the consortium isn't after 20/5d and 21/1a in the 31st SLR and disappointed if we were not awarded them.
Repsol Sinopec have 20/5e but they appear to have lost interest in the area, having tried to sell assets a couple of years ago, including the 10y discovery, which presently is the main interest in the vicinity, with a potential 14-43 million barrels over two reservoirs.
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
25 May '19
https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/web_files/gis/ukcs_maps/Buchan-area-map.pdf

For those who aren't familiar with the geography, JOG, with Equinor and CIECO, currently hold Licence P2170, which incorporates Blocks 20/5b and 21/1d (broadly to the NW & NE of Buchan).

Verbier lies in Block 20/5b, between Hannay and Buchan and Cortina is in 21/1d, directly between Buchan and Tweedsmuir South, almost straddling both at is SW and NE extremities.

The Blocks currently being offered for licence by the OGA in the 31st Supplementary Round are coloured blue on the linked map.

Place your bets.............

dyor
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: 31st SLR
25 May '19
noix - I'm with you generally on this but took AB's comments to mean that discoveries in newly licensed fields in the Greater Buchan Area would make sub-sea pipe connections for oil delivery to shore more likely and less costly to put in place on a shared basis. Such infrastructure would enhance the commercial value of Verbier, regardless of who made the discovery/ies. It's just my take on things - for some reason JOG hasn't stated it has applied. Suggests to me Equinor might be involved because they don't seem to want to say much about anything until it's an unqualified success.

It would be a big surprise (to me at least) if JOG - with or without its P2170 partners; hopefully "with" - had not applied for one or more of the new Greater Buchan Area licences and an even bigger one if it wasn't appropriately rewarded for its enterprise.

https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/web_files/gis/ukcs_maps/Buchan-area-map.pdf

Not that long to wait for the results of the applications:
"Companies have until the round close for applications at 2.00pm on the 2nd of May 2019 to apply for blocks on offer in the Supplementary Licensing Round. Decisions are expected to be made as early as possible in Q3/4 in 2019".
https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2019/supplementary-31st-round-offers-exceptional-opportunity-for-greater-buchan-area-revival/

dyor
noix
Posts: 252
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
31st SLR
25 May '19
AB stated at the end of the Malcy interview that the 31st SLR was one of the events to look forward to and this was a header in the recent rns:
" Licensing awards in the 31st Supplementary Offshore Licensing Round: We look forward to the results of the 31st Supplementary Offshore Licensing Round which we see as being highly beneficial to the Verbier discovery, with the potential to enhance its commercial viability."
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: West Phoenix
25 May '19
I see the Storebror tug left Southampton at 10.24hrs on 24 May (yesterday) heading for the Nab Spoil Area.

http://www.southamptonvts.co.uk/Live_Information/Shipping_Movements_and_Cruise_Ship_Schedule/Vessels_Sailed/

Bullson, I don't know where it's heading after that
fairdealer20
Posts: 2,397
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
West Phoenix
25 May '19
Having completed the drills in UKCS the rig has been in Olen shipyard for almost 6 weeks is now en route to Lille Prinsen a Fieid in the Norwegian CS, where Oil was discovered in 2018 and operated by Equinor. The vessel's arrival at Lille Prinsen is estimated for later today.

Bullson this would seem to fill WP's schedule to 20th June and possibly beyond
bullson
Posts: 129
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: dickupham speaks and JOG rises.....
25 May '19
You are right Noix...the West Phoenix now only shows booked until Nov19 for Equinor Norway/UK however I have seen on Seadrills homepage under the fleet status report (updated 23rd May) that the West Hercules has now an option for Apr20 til June20 for Equinor, it doesn't say if its UK or Norway yet though...they already got it booked for Equinor Norway from now until Mar20 but the option for Apr til June is new. So what I am trying to say is that there are plenty of options for further drills. The West Hercules is the same class as the West Phoenix.

I am too are very optimistic since the current share price only factors in the cash value and as there are several catalysts that can bring us back up to a) fair value around the 230 pence mark and b) beyond that in case of new discoveries or increased recoverable oil amounts in the existing discoveries:

- purchase of a producing asset could happen anytime really as we know they are trying hard, and we know it will be a good deal since they are very selective to make sure its good value. The tax credits we got are GBP30 milllion, that is a huge benefit and turns into cash once we produce
- full results of the 3D seismic analyzed with the well results etc will allow Equinor/JOG/Cieco a full evaluation of the block and beyond and commit tp further appraisal drills and or exploration drills, maybe a multiwell program even?
- 31 Licencing Round with possible new blocks and licenses for the group. This could easily increase the oil reserves at least on P10 and P50 levels.
- OGA pushing forward with a hub development. I wouldn't be surprised if it is a condition for the bidders to commit in driving this hub forward in case of a successful bid.

Exciting times ahead.
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: dickupham speaks and JOG rises.....
25 May '19
I appreciate your comments, Herron - and your amusing header. Ha ha.

I'm a bit more optimistic than you re when a follow-up appraisal well might be drilled. I guess a lot depends on what becomes evident when all the data from the last drill is merged with the new 3D seismic data and fully analysed. Reading between the lines, the area to the NW of the discovery well seems to be favoured for a further well - and "Verbier Deep" seems to have emerged as a live possibility.

It will be interesting to learn what, if any, new licences are awarded to JOG (and partners?) in the 31st Supplementary Round allocations. That's assuming applications were submitted by one or more of JOG and its partners. Nothing has been definitively said about the position. Given Verbier was thought at the time to be the biggest UKCS discovery of 2017, it would be no surprise if this hadn't sparked the OGA's initiative to run a supplementary round concentrating on the Greater Buchan Area. I don't know how these things work but it would seem a bit odd if Equinor (as operator) hadn't shared data from Verbier with the OGA. If it did, I wonder what might be thought fair recompense for the P2170 partners?

Look fwd to finding out what your digging unearths re the West Phoenix, noix

We live in interesting times.............there's a lot going on.

Risk can never be removed

GL

dyor
noix
Posts: 252
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
RE: dickupham speaks and JOG rises.....
24 May '19
West Phoenix is booked to Equinor for the period May 2019 - November 2019 in Norway/UK waters.
When I have a bit of time I'll have a scout to see what else they are up to.
Herron
Posts: 47
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:69.50
dickupham speaks and JOG rises.....
24 May '19
It has been very reassuring having your measured opinions these past two years and some. Acting on the mantra
"buy shares when they're cheap" (and to bring my average down to £1.50, I have bought twice this week. Our leaders paid themselves a £10k bonus last year and what a good decision it was to raise £24million when the sentiment was right. I suspect that we will have to wait well into 2020 for another drill but maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps the licencing awards and the data analysis will promote an earlier drill. Success of any kind would make new funding much easier.
dickupham
Posts: 1,244
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:67.00
garbled value
24 May '19
JOG is valued today at only what it has in the bank. Makes sense (not)

The cash value of c/fwd tax losses is £10m - nil value attributed
JOG's share of a min 25MMboe in Verbier** (which will probably be lifted when most economic) - nil value
Cortina - nil value
Meribel - nil value
Wider P2170 Area recently subject to 3D seismic survey to identify further prospects - nil value
Skill and accumulated knowledge & experience of JOG personnel - nil value
Future potential for added value from producing assets to be acquired - nil value
Work put into acquiring further licences in area adjacent to P2170 (assumed to have been carried out) - nil value

What exactly is 'the market' valuing? If it thinks JOG is going to waste the cash, it should be looking to other assets to hang something on.

One thing's clear - the cash isn't going to stay where it is for long, so why pretend it has a value except to allow the company to pursue its aims? Are these worth anything?

It's no good people waiting for announcements to be made that point to safety and then piling in looking for multiple returns on investment cost. It's taking well-judged risk (and having patience) that gets the big rewards. Those who don't want risk should avoid the sector.

** fair value for proven UKCS "oil in the ground" is about $10pb. JOG has at least 4.5MMboe of discovered oil. Even at $7pb and at minimum volume it's worth $31.5m - or £25m

Price in the short term is about supply and demand, which is affected by sentiment. It has little to do with value which people can work out for themselves. Risk has to be factored into everything and luck also comes into the equation. I still like JOG's chances and so do some others. Time will tell.

dyor
Shredders
Posts: 106
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:67.50
RE: How close were we...
23 May '19
Many thanks, I had missed that sentence from the annual report.
graybird
Posts: 1,983
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:67.50
bullson
23 May '19
yes , i no , ron reads are posts. so maybe they had chat and thought more info for pi,s , well hope they keep it up
bullson
Posts: 129
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:67.50
RE: How close were we...
23 May '19
Yes Ajax there were a lot of details in the reports of the chairman and ceo, another one I found significant was mentioning the 10 year well on numerous times plus the new map. I cannot compare it directly with last years reports but it felt very thought through and brings to the point what makes shareholders concerned etc. I think they did realize that communication wasn't their stronghold recently and that there was some criticism in regards to that - so maybe that was the reason but this is just my personal and subjective opinion.

Important for me was that I felt well informed afterwards and that it addressed a lot of important matters in great detail. It made me feel very positive.
graybird
Posts: 1,983
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:67.50
ajax
23 May '19
23 May 2019 BUY JOG LSE 1,229 68.10p £849.45,, used 25% of loyds div kept my word lol,we can both cry if no oil lol,
ajax62
Posts: 6,986
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:68.50
RE: How close were we...
23 May '19
I'm surprised the BOD included that in the last RNS but it does show how close they actually were and that they are trying out there with various acquisition opportunities.

So a vote of confidence atleast for all shareholders




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