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When you’re ready to eat a bit of humble pie – let me know, i'll warm it up for you and serve it with a bit of gravy.
As i've said before - not being rude but you are only 10% of the share registry - the UK holders are curretly much more important and is why they are looking to add another UK analyst.
IBB_Invest - I don’t suppose the excellent question on Canadian Coverage came from you, did it? Regardless, you cheery picked his response and completely skipped over the comments made on why the coverage is as it is. As a reminder, the point you were making a month back was that peers had up to 10 investment banks covering them indicating that i3e’s Canadian marketing was deficient(IYO). You also went on to say that they only had 1 third rate analyst covering them in Canada.
No one is disputing that more buying in Canada would be a good thing. All Majid has said is that the question is valid. He’s hardly going to say it’s a stupid question. Majid explained why there was less coverage than peers which you conveniently skipped over and its all to do with money and how much these investment banks can make out of the Companies they cover. This is discussed further in i3e’s response to the SPECIFIC comments you originally made in quotes below:
“The Canaccord Genuity analyst covering i3e is not a third-rate analyst… Investment banks have their own criteria to consider when allocating their resources. One criteria is the amount of income they might receive from trading volumes in the stock and potential investment banking income generated from the relationship developed with the corporate entity. Small cap stocks like i3 Energy have more limited trading volumes and in i3 Energy’s case as circa 90% of its shareholding is UK based, the majority of its liquidity is on the AIM market ... It is especially true for small cap stocks that institutional shareholders typically appear on the register as part of an equity raising process because there is not enough liquidity to build significant positions in open market trading without materially moving the price. The equity raised by i3 Energy to fund its acquisitions in Canada was all raised in the London market in 2020 and 2021, when the North American equity market for small cap Canadian oil and gas stocks was extremely limited. I3 Energy has grown its Canadian shareholding over time from circa 3% to just over 10% and we expect it to continually to grow organically, particularly the retail element. A significant growth in the institutional shareholding percentage will take longer and will likely be associated with an equity raise in Canada, for which the Company has no plans at the moment.”
So, in short you have not been vindicated, you cherry picked the answer, ignored Majids specific comments on coverage or at least did not understand them and took the snippet you did quote out of context.
A question for you – if Majid was really saying that increased trading in Canada was key and that the way to do it was by increasing coverage – he would do it surely? He gave no indication of doing this other than lobbying Canadian National Bank and indeed went onto say that they hoped to add another UK analyst!!!!
When you’re ready to eat a bit of humble pie – let me know, i'll w
Thanks Joe. Do you know if CNRL ever developed their Hangingstone asset?
Final attempt
IBB_INVEST, the Hangingstone land was part of the Toscana assets, a minor asset less than 5% of the NPV, and was a 26% share of a large licensed area operated by Canadian Natural Resources producing gas.
HTH
Retry!
IBB_INVEST, the Hangingstone land was part of the Toscana assets, a minor asset
IBB_INVEST, the Hangingstone land was part of the Toscana assets, a minor asset
IBB_Invest, in its argument with 'Know It All Tony' has been vindicated in the debate over Canadian coverage by none other than i3 Energy CEO, Majid Shafiq. Recall Tony' position that Canadian coverage is the result of low Canadian ownership and not the other way around. IBB' position is that Canadian ownership is low is because no one in Canada knows who the hell i3 Energy is even though 100% of revenue comes from Canada.
During yesterdays Investor Meet Company webinar, an excellent question regarding Canadian coverage was asked and Majid has this to say:
"Look, obviously we want trading in our stock. We want more liquidity. All of that liquidity at the moment is in London. The question around research in Canada IS A VERY VALID ONE as we would like more liquidity in Canada and hopefully that will happen".
Thanks Majid for the support against Tony!
Found another Easter egg regarding Hangingstone. i3 board chair, John Festival, is also on the board of Hangingstone producer, Athabasca Oil. Would you look at that
Wow, what happened to Canuck?! He provided some good info and opinion that didn’t include a factually incorrect rant about Polus!
Regarding i3 Energy being land speculators, my take is that Majid sat on this thermal oil Hangingstone land waiting for the perfect moment to bring it to market to extract maximum value. That moment is now with Transmountain Pipeline opened since May 1st with Canadian heavy oil discount narrowing and signs of US shale oil declines becoming more evident which makes Canadian thermal oil with its ultra low declines very valuable going forward. Investment is ramping up in the oil sands and i3 management know this. Will be very interesting to see what they get for this.
Athabasca's 'steam-to-oil' ratio on its own Hanginstone is improving every month. It can now compete for capital with its other assets (it used to be a bottom of the pile asset). I3, being the land speculator that is, knows this fully well, and will extract a proper pound of flesh.
Coincidentally, National Bank is the banker for both Athabasca and I3. Don't be surprised they put the transaction together, and 'reward' I3 with some much needed Canadian "analyst" coverage (that is not Cannacord)
Tony, fully agree. My takeaway notes from that excellent presentation too. Have to hand it to management, we are seeing a step up in investor and IR engagement both in terms of frequency and quality.
That was my question to management regarding the N.E. Alberta land which they indicated is Hangingstone. No one knew that they had a land position there so this is another freebie. Hangingstone is heavy thermal oil (oil sands) which needs SAGD for extraction. I3 Energy is not a heavy thermal oil producer so completely non-core and, by management comments that they cannot talk much on it, an asset sale is very likely underway on this. Hangingstone is a core area of Athabasca and Greenfire so these are two candidates likely in the process of buying i3’ acreage there. Value is unknown as it’s non-producing however heavy oil pricing has flipped and very very valuable now so fingers crossed there could be some good cash coming to the balance sheet soon with this non-core sale!
"I kind of see us as property owners with a lot of scattered assets. Some providing decent yields (rental income). Others less so or nothing. "
Congratulations on not investing in an actual oil and gas company.
However, it does appear that this company would like to become one in 2025, by promising not to fool around with inconsistent drilling budgeting.
These recent comments by Shafiq should be noted,even in a difficult enviroment i3e still managed to achieve record production of 20,711 boepd. In my view the huge discount to NAV is now a huge buying opportunity that rarely comes around these days and i think the SP will build steadily throughout rest of this year and into next.
"“We proceeded to focus on low-risk wells in our core production assets and appraisal wells in the Clearwater and are very pleased with the results, which were delivered on budget even in an inflationary cost environment.
“Despite these challenges and due to our ability to adapt our portfolio and investment and drilling strategy quickly, i3 achieved record annual average production of 20,711 boepd."
GGG
Excellent analysis. I agree 100%.
Agreed good presentation and future looks bright providing AECO improves. Something I'd like mgt to clearly state though, is why they believe we're consistently trading at half of peer metrics. It has been years and 'value hasn't outed'. So why is this still the case in their veiw? And what can they do to improve this disconnect. I think the recent asset disposal is a great example of what could move the needle. The issue of course is the market was thinking this would result in instant increased production, and less willing to wait until December before we see the benefits of the extra $25m. But another non-core asset disposal could just do the trick to provide a higher, more solid base to increase from in 2025.
I kind of see us as property owners with a lot of scattered assets. Some providing decent yields (rental income). Others less so or nothing. Problem is we have a few amazing assets that can drive significant yield and value gains, but need investment (renovation for the property analogy). So get rid of the low / no yielding assets and invest in those that will definitely move the needle. Feels like they've made a decision on this direction, rather than looking for acquisitions. It will take a little more time for value to build, but if they can make a few more asset sales and get another circa $50m away in 2025 then things could get very interesting here by end of 2025 with an improved gas price environment. Hopefully this is their strategy and they commit to it. I for one am supportive and will stick with a long term core holding providing they stick to this line of thinking (whilst trading at the edges). GLA
From the Proactive Investor Website:
i3 Energy attractively geared to higher gas prices, says Stifel
i3 Energy PLC has received a forecast update from broker Stifel following the confirmation of the 2024 capital budget.
“Specifically, we have reduced and deferred drilling activity into H2/24, which results in 2024 production within the 18-19,000 [barrels of oil per day] guidance range, albeit towards the top end.
“We incorporate higher capex per well, reflecting the increased complexity of the 2024 programme of wells.
“Assuming some continuation of this results in our NAV falling to 28p (from 30p).
“Overall we remain positive. The shares trade at a considerable discount to both peers and NAV.
“Whilst the prevailing low gas price means that growth is on hold, the business remains funded, and we believe is poised to strongly re-rate on better prices.”
Shares today were up 2.5% at 11p
I3e has the potential to be one of the sector performers of 2024/25 ,the update due in just over a weeks time should be a very good read and put plenty of meat on the bones of what we already know.Fair value on this right now should be in the 15p to 18p ranges. Great buying opportunity at moment,and a decent candidate for SIPP investment.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsZGHmHhCtk&t=3991s all revealed at 1:20:51 - you did not mishear VL
I thought he was just talking generally about closed periods for director buying. They obviously had one recently with Royalties deal and may or may not have another one. Same with any busy company.
RH said learn more in Q update by May 15th unless I mis heard
2) agreed but i'm not sure they confirmed they were in a closed period now. I think their response to why they were not buying on the market was a more general comment that their buying windows are restricted. But why buy anyway when you get stock / option awards ?
2) nonetheless material if closed period remains
Presentation now on youtube also
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsZGHmHhCtk
Key takeaways:
1) A strong presentation and highlighted how prudently i3e is being managed - imo
2) Potential for a further sale of non core assets - I would not be expecting i3e to generate anything like they did with the royalty production because I think they maybe none producing - but cash is cash !
3) i3e sitting at a 45% discount to peers on a PDP basis per Majid - this should narrow significantly imo as gas prices improve
4) Capex program promising a very strong end to the year and an even better 2025
5) Line fill complete on the coastal link pipeline. They would not have done this if the LNG plant was not expected to take gas very shortly - they would have left the line under purge otherwise. So we can expect commissioning of LNG Canada shortly i.e. line fill within the plant, start up of the cooling facillity and tank fill in preparation for LNG shipments.