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Cash pile must be over $50M now and growing. Putting very little value on Yanfolila itself as well as Cora assets and Dugbe. Can only see this as a real takeover possibility at this value. What with the increased mine life being drilled and expansion on the mine going forward. Any company taking over all of this has great expansion to their own company.
As a supporter of HUM, I have to say both positive and negative points of view should be given some merit. To dismiss either out of hand is foolish. If everything was as good as when the sp was 38p then why are the shares not f flying off the shelf? I still believe we will see profit, but I'm not blind to the issues raised.
The phone conference call was not mentioned and Dan was found to be irked again with the question of the BOD not buying more shares. I too thought his answer was weak. all IMO.
Melodramatic to the extreme. I agree on the 1p options, a disgrace, but that's about it. So completely agree with Tom on all points.
HUM are the only company I know to bring in their 1st mine both on schedule and under budget. Some other companies manage one, but not both. Most AIM companies fail at both.
I actually made several prosoal BOD sending to hum weeks ago, assumes they Achieved FCF they projected 2018, include use 15 percent FCF one time share buyback, internal growth more than m&a to re-design dugbe to 6-7m/y plant and monterization the asset in capital effiency way,, non-related m&a should seeking major shareholder approval( I think it is fair large shareholder include odey or sportt have a say if HUM diversified away from precious metal, if they ok, I am fine) . Now they just ignore email with no response, when it comes to serious stuff to possible to create shareholder value per share.
Sorry - it was Bert I emailed.
TBBT, you do have a flair for the melodramatic, You might be better off in Amdram than investing! ‘Trusting’ Beaufort - the we’re just a nomad paid to do a job. AGG fiasco - why fiasco? They did DD, found it wanting, moved on. Hardly a fiasco. 1p options - well, I’m never a fan of gurenteed inventive for management so in conjunction with hearty pay packets, I have to agree Bunker Hill ‘misadventure’ - convirtible bonds with warrants is a great deal and the co just needs to survive for that to become a very nice pay off for us. The dreadful communications - I emailed Dan and the folllowing day he phoned me back. They have been on podcasts and done interviews Immature interview - I’m not sure we read the same interview. It seems to me that once you have taken a view on something you commit to that view absolutely and all objectivity goes out of the window, not a healthy thing to be doing when investing.
Yes, I agree. But really that's how it is.
Management performance here has been pretty pathetic, culminating in that absolutely juvenile interview that Dan Betts gave to Mining Journal about a week ago.
It's time they were gone.
TBTT that's a pretty damning assessment you have made there!!
I don't think the BOD are in any position to refuse any reasonable takeover offer - say at 40p. That's a 50% premium to today's share price, which is still trending downwards.
The BOD really need to look at themselves in the mirror and ask themselves what have they done to support the share price over the last eight months. The answer is very little. A fair few of their actions (trusting Beaufort to act as company broker in the first place, the AGG fiasco, the 1p options, the Bunker Hill misadventure, the dreadful communications, the lack of promotional activity) have been positively harmful. So the BOD can only blame themselves.
Ultimately, we (the shareholders) own this company. And it's high time it was run in our interests, and not just the BOD's. And, IMO, our interests are best served by a takeover and new management, because Hummingbird's assets are most definitely worth more than the current market capitalisation.
For me, Dan Betts & Co. - through a mix of arrogance, irresponsibility, immaturity, and naked greed - have failed to earn the market's confidence.They've had their chance and failed, and now it's time to move on.
It’s all a matter of timescales, which is the unpredictable element. The $ will weaken at some point, sand it may be a ‘snap’ rather than a gentle fall. History has shown us on many occasions that economic cycles have a sudden jolt when they reach their extremes....
Agree with most of what you say Darola apart from the dollar falling. US debt creation and yield-starved global investors buying dollars to snap up those 3 per cent yields on 10-year bonds spells a stronger dollar in my opinion.
Few things that are up there with death and taxes in terms of probability. The dollar will weaken, gold will rise, HUM will pay off its debt and increase its cash pile, CORA will reach a JORC compliant resource and enter a JV with HUM, HUM will extend the LOM, HUM will increase mine capacity. And all of this suggests HUMs SP will rise - what’s not clear is when. And the more of the probabilities that land and the longer the wait for the SP rise, the higher the probability of a takeover - at the type of premiums discussed today. So for the patient HUM will come good at some point, the only thing that can stop it is a force majeur. I didn’t mention M&A (such as B/H) or Dugbe in the above as whilst these are likely, they are not dead certs - I consider that the above points WILL happen.
Should the long term PI lose out with a low takeover , it would not be what DB has led us to believe.
The management team have delivered the mine on time to budget, a good job.
I have patiently trusted my well over £ 100 000 investment ( average price 36p) believing an empire was being built.
I still believe in the company and do not believe DB would let these loyal shareholders down.
If I am mistaken, needless to say, I would not be associating in any future business promises.
Investors back teams that deliver on investments, not just building programmes.
oops, Only the P.I.s who bought in for the long ride for what was thought higher profits in years to come would be the real losers. IMO
At the end of the day the management at HUM are not in it for us, but for themselves. Although they may not look like they receive a lot for their shares, I,m sure there would be sweetners on the table for them to help grease the wheels for the takeover, and furthermore many would be given positions within the new owners company. After all it still requires the mine to be run.
So ultimately only the P.I.
I don't think that DB and others will be keen to sell as they bought lots of shares at a very high price at the initial share offering.
If an offer came in at 45p say the price might open lower at say 40p if traders do not expect a counter offer and to allow some margin should the deal not go through. On the other hand if a bidding war is anticipated then it might open at (say) 48p. I cannot see a bid lower than 40 a share simply because it hit that level earlier.
The US$ seems to be defying gravity at the moment and keeps increasing in value. What is crucial is the price in local currency. A low price will encourage buying, especially in India and China. The current price of about $1174 is particularly bad news for high cost producers. This price makes a dent in the profit that HUM makes but sub $800/oz production cost still leaves a huge profit margin. Each day that passes the fuller the HUM money chest, and furthermore the falling value of the £ to US$ make any repatriated remittances even higher.
The Buzz
Just announced - Mali election result postponed to Thursday:-
https://www.dawn.com/news/1427172/mali-presidential-election-results-postponed-to-thursday
At least the election has proceeded reasonably in 'good order' so far.
The Buzz
Hum isn't acting like a company that wants to stay an independent entity. I hate saying it, but I would take 40p right now.
It they stay 26ish for a a week or so, take over will 40 p Best, 50 percent is fair. Most people will happy to take it. Question is management incentive not to sell, they loss job and salary after sale. So there is that.
If an offer comes in at say 45p per share for example, the day it is reported at 7am the share price will automatically open at 45p so the gain could be almost 100% in an instant. HUM shareholders may say get lost to the 45p offer and whoever then may come back with a bigger offer of say 53p - if we have more than one interested party it could be a case of a bidding war.
At 90m mcap we are ridiculously cheap and likely on the radar of some bigger fish!!!
@goldrider: depends what you mean lose or gain? You lose the potential upside on a selling today to an acquirer. The price you sell should be reflective of that and therefore a price shareholders are prepared to exit at - which must be a premium to the prevailing share price (otherwise you’d just sell the shares in the market and there should be a premium for control). Typical UK bid premium is 30-50% but there’s a wide variation for what’s negotiated, recommendable by a board and ultimately acceptable to the key shareholders. Hope that helps.
Please help relieve my ignorance - anybody. Of course I cannot understand how such a nice looking company has a share price languishing in the doldrums but what will the effect of a takeover be? Will this not bring the sp down further?
Will the private investors lose, or gain?