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Thanks for clarifying beerbull. I know the WTL/WTI narrative suggests that US production is all light but really not excessively at that end of the spectrum. I think that the critical point is that a significant proportion of US growth production, mostly out of the Delaware basin, is light so the ratio will progressively get worse over time. Bakken is now confirming that growth has stalled, another couple of months data will put it beyond doubt leaving only the Permian as a growth patch - everywhere else will start showing accelerating production declines.
RE global storage drawdowns: https://mobile.twitter.com/OpenSquareCap/status/1143938086457528320
Well hell. That was a nice draw. Saudi stocks getting to multi year lows. Japan and Europe stocks have reversed their builds over the last couple of weeks. China and India stockpiling Iranian crude in Q1 starting to work through as well. Oh, and US production showing signs of rolling over. I don’t want to be too much of a big head but I did say end of Q2! Thanks to everyone who contributes company and production data - not my area. Now to sit back and wait for the falling demand forecasts to be proved comprehensively debunked and i’ll back on the imported beers before summer is over! Disclaimer: could be a 5mbbl build next week of course which would mean grain alcohol for the foreseeable.
Nice to have that confirmed.
Ticking off the boxes along the way to a 10-bagger from today's Mcap
Next up - infill drilling and resource delineation + scoping study to look at starter pit to fast track early production, all before the end of the year.
There's a difference between seeking and actually having something on the table though! The rumour is that there is something to get excited about.
Going about that there is a debt funded deal to buy into a producing asset in the works. Amazing news if true, that would really accelerate our development and remove the need for as much equity funding.
Just a rumour though.
Strong after hours performance for gold. Looks like short-covering driving the breakout. June/August '13 peak within a whisker of being broken. After that there is clear air to $1478, not expecting anyone to lose their heads until the breakout is back tested and confirmed but we should see a gradual return to fair value for us over the next few days/weeks.
Got taken down on the close but it's relatively tiny volumes driving big moves. Minuscule free float.
Starting to get back towards a reasonable valuation. Still 100% to go up before getting close to being anything like within a sensible valuation range.
With the current resources and run up to delineating a maiden resource £12m is a reasonable Mcap at the bottom of the range. £14m e/v is more like a normal valuation for a company with this kind of resource and development potential.
2 days, 50% rise and still an absurd valuation of £4m e/v. That's $5 per Oz of resource in the ground at the low end of the 1 - 2 million Oz commercial potential, at Sanankoro only, as stated by the independent consultant SRK.
This assessment only goes as deep as 100m and doesn't include any potential resource at a deeper level.
Tekeledougou prospect returned 17m @ 6.6g/t including 1m at 102 g/t from the Kouroudian from one hole during their initial exploration campaign which is just 10km from HUM's plant.
I mean, I don't want to get a reputation as a mindless ramper but £5m market cap is just nuts.
Nothing except that HUM aren't exactly rolling in free cash at the moment and they would probably face a blocking vote from the other substantial shareholders who understand the value here. It wouldn't be just a matter of offering £10m they would have to pitch it at more like £25-£30m which is beyond their means right now.
It took less than 0.5m shares to move the price up 10% this morning. Crackers. 75% held by management and related parties (who stumped up all the cash for the last fundraise btw - something I’ve never seen before) + HUM I own a reasonable chunk and I know a few others which, between us, would take out another 1.5% or so and we ain’t selling. There is probably only £450k of stock in free float at 3.5p valuation. Imagine how quickly we go back to £12m valuation if a few people decide that 1-2m Oz is worth owning at around $4 per Oz at e/v Now imagine what happens if we hit a nice nuggety patch in the current maiden resource drilling with a couple of 75g/t over 1m intercepts - oh wait, we already have one of those. It would be an incredible coincidence if we just happened to hit that one intercept during our widely spaced exploration drill campaign and there were no more high-grade veins out there. It won’t take much of a tailwind to see us 3-bag in the short term and there is news flow on the way with drill results + we will have a maiden resource before Xmas.
Toe back in the water with a 100k buy. I’m reasonably confident that we will get funding at some point - even if there is a significant equity portion it won’t be a disaster for equity holders and although it will take some time to clear any overhang it will be very value accretive in the end.