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"Well at 90k bopd even at 30 bucks they are making 1 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR!"
Don't confuser gross field sales with what the producer "makes"
Muppets thinking a deal can be reached within 3 days? That is, misreading an old statement?
I don't think its about the re-opeopening of the pipeline, if it is, we'll be in the 140s at least! Its about Brent turning bullish again, higher Brent means larger local sales volumes at better prices. This is just a guess, I could be wrong.
The bots are working really hard to flush out stock that's for sure.
Even with a wave of selling they just absorb it & look for more.
They might nee another tree shake etc to try & scare a few out.
could easily make the 130p mark the way things are going right now, it just depends what price they've agreed to fill the order at, that might stop it getting there.
GLA
LOTM
Well at 90k bopd even at 30 bucks they are making 1 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR!
Belgrano, someone might have called the guy from Victoria Plumbing to sort out the pipeline issue as the Iraqis didn't seem to have a clue. Fingers crossed.
At a loss as to 8 percent rise, was there a mates article about 3 days anywhere?
Undervalued shares newsletter.
There is also a buyer in for regular tranches. algos having a problem keeping this down hopefully
Very encouraging start, I do believe we are near the end game. We know that big investors here do have contacts within Kurdistan and probably Iraq where any information can be sold to the right people.
Normally a reason. Anyone out, not that expensive to get back in.
I think the huge bull flag on the daily about to appear may be it
Some news must have got out surely, deal reached?
I believe people saw DNO numbers at 90k bopd, our December numbers were already 21k bopd by the 11th, put two and two together.
Sly shxts
"Genel moving as well"
Folk giving 5 shares as a gift instead of Quality Street.
Genel moving as well
"I sold yesterday sod law"
You will be ok, it's just traders doing the hokey cokey
I sold yesterday sod law
A mad rush it seems
4.5p jump in 20 minutes
I’d hazard a guess and say we won’t see anything meaningful until after the 5+ bid round terms are known in Jan.
The Iraq government now has legal control over all payments to the KRG IOCs, so have the leverage in negotiations.
OK, so looking into the 5th bid round terms and the ‘profit sharing’ agreements. The IOC takes around 2-5% of the gross revenues in remuneration after tax. Leaving the government with 95-98%.
All in, a company can expect on a sliding scale : 0.73c to $4.55 per bbl profit, against the oil revenue per bbl.
i.e.
0.73c = Oil market price of $21.5 bbl
$2.11 = Oil market price of $ 50 bbl
$4.55 = Oil market price of $100 bbl
Comparison:
The KRG contract provides an IRR of 17.7%
The 5th bid round contract an IRR of 15.1%
This doesn’t sound much, but the effect on NPV is massive.
It would drop the NPV of GKP by around 64%. Basically, GKP would be worth 1/3 of what it was under the KRG contract.
All imo and dyor.
I actually don't think we will see contracts altered in any significant way. Certainly the short-sighted Iraqi Politian's would like it as it further lines their pockets. Got to be remembered the last round of profit shared contracts was deemed a failure by the lack of uptake.
Far more likely is a tweak of the Iraqi constitution rules to enable current Kurdistan contracts to be recognised. They just cannot afford to continue like this as loosing critical income in a major way due to their own stupidity.
They wont want to do it, but they will have to as they now find themselves aligned against the IOC's, Kurdish authorities and Turkey, all of which they need to satisfy and work with.
Great, thanks for the reply theoryman. I’ll look into the potential new profit sharing ones.
As far as I am aware there hasn’t been a new TSC signed in the last five years.
The only type of contract which is illegal under the Iraq Constitution, as of Feb ‘22 onwards, are Production Sharing ones.
News releases from the FGI imply that the 2024 round of bidding for new contracts will be based on an improved version of the 2018 profit sharing model.
If the new contracts are offering that, it seems reasonable to assume that any adapted contracts for those IOCs already operating under PSCs will be offered something similar - mind you this is Iraq where they all seem to have undergone logic bypass operations.
If you want to DYOR into what the old TSCs offered then find the original contract for every one of them and what they offered, then find every agreed change as production targets were met etc.. Probably not worth the effort 🙄 There used to be a government site where every one of them was listed, it was a long list!
Agreed