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Investors don't necessarily invest on the basis of the number of shares they buy, they can invest on the basis of the size of the investment measured in £s.
Ehhhh !!! ermmm I will stick with my approach lol !!! SLBY is worthless to RETAIL and will continue to be so for a long time to come !! So on that note !!!!!!!!!! you know the rest lol./.
Yes, BP past has put us where we are now. There as been a slide in the SP.
Investors don't necessarily invest on the basis of the number of shares they buy, they can invest on the basis of the size of the investment measured in £s.
A SQUEEZE !!!!! ferk meeeee,,, there are 4.3 BILLION of these puppies in issue,,, lol
As I've mentioned before, such a high proportion of shares held in (one assumes) firm hands creates the technical conditions for a price squeeze should significant buying occur.
Nothing that special Patrick, they went with light mud weight and it bit them in the bum, they then had to resort to a heavy mud weight to keep the wellbore condition adequate to continue drilling, which worked to a degree, BUT still resulted in only drilling just over a third of the desired horizontal leg.
Bottom line is it will always be difficult to maintain hole conditions, and they suffered after the well was completed with the clean up, meaning the wellbore in reservoir suffered "some" skin damage from the use of the weighted muds they ended up using, so that likely also reduced the productivity from the 1/3rd horizontal leg by a chunk too. meaning at best it is realistically about 25% of the original planned horizontal that is producing.
They can do much better next time, simply STICK to plan A, and don't try to be clever as GL tried too, and it cost 3 X what it should have.
Aleph Commodities is a NEW significant shareholder on the share register: they must have been holding close to 3% before the RNS of 14/03.
42.06% of shares were held by significant shareholders BEFORE today's announcement, we now have about half of all shares in their hands.
I was interested by the coments about the application of use of new drilling fluids last used in the drilling of the last well. In the past it was mentioned that saltby geologicly difficult to drill. If they have indeed found a successful way of drilling. Then it would follow that more oppertunaties lie using exsting wells that have under welmed in the past.
The two wells planned may be just part of the proccess of draining the field. The life of the field could still be extended further in ways discussed. Saltfleetby has to be stepped up & with help from new funding gain from Trafgura, the company is on course to grow. Can anybody on balance point out the pit falls?
Aleph Commodities holds 8.11% as of 19/03 (follows the RNS of 14/03)
Rounding it all up, it ALL translates to what is now a totally undermined asset, OK for "them" useless/no upside value to "Retail" punters, and that will likely be the case for the remaining life of SLBY.
The "only" potential interest remaining in Angus is what happens at Balcombe !! we wait with GREAT anticipation !!
Ah yes, the deferred hedge, with no "upfront Cost" but significant back end cost..
and all the ,long disappeaered, muppets that abused anyone who pointed out the potential back end cost.
"And we don’t know the terms of their new forward contracts with Trafigura, do we?"
You would imagine if they were in anyway favourable they would have let us know..
Yes, Sageman, absolutely right. The cost of the failure to get the plant working in time to exploit that spike was grossly exacerbated by the forward contracts. So they not only missed really high sales prices, but they had to pay their senior lenders the difference between those very high market prices and their very low forward contract prices for a couple of months. Ruinously expensive. And we don’t know the terms of their new forward contracts with Trafigura, do we?
The biggest issue remains that they missed their deadlines not by just a few days (check what Lucan said) but several months when oil spiked. Had we sold into the spike finances would be transformed. We are left with expensive debt and gas in the 60's rather than the hundreds. 2021 and 2022 were the years of catastrophic failure and the current sp and debt the result. I told bubble/Push this from outset. I now hold hoping for a spike or a rabbit but thankful that this was never more than 2% of my portfolio. It is hard to be optimistic with costs, debts and depletion of gas.
HITS: I’ve no issue with looking to the future. That’s what I’m doing. Future costs are as important as future potential returns. Angus management appear reluctant to discuss offtake agreements, hedge details and new well drilling costs. It’s no good investors quoting the management’s optimistic forecasts without considering the cost side of the argument. Maybe the analysis is too hard/time-consuming for them. If so, they’re ill-advised to ignore the analysis posted here by people who can do this research. The past here is pretty bleak. The future doesn’t look any better.
I see with some amusement (but no surprise) that posts laying out inconvenient but literally undeniable truths are being deleted.
Ocelot amongst other eternal pompom wavers states that "In my posts, I concentrate on the future"...
However, looking at ANGS's entire record to date, literally every single promise, assurance or prediction of jam tomorrow issued by any version of the ANGS BoD via any means (whether RNS, interview, presentation or PR puff) has turned out to bear no relationship whatsoever to the cold, hard reality of things.
Little wonder then that the cheerleaders are so insistent that people only "look to the future".
WG818: no mention at all, either, about the terms of the new Trafigura offtake agreement and the new hedges. There’s a reason for the one-year grace period before the start of loan repayments on the £20mm. loan they needed to make themselves free of £12m. of debt (which they didn’t need in the first place). If they have to put off investment in a new well until next year, that’s likely to be a very expensive year indeed. Meanwhile the average gas flow depletes every month.
WG818: the previous management (there’s been a complete clear-out, really, apart from Carlos) was derisive in discussing the skills of Wingas and its predecessors in title at Saltfleetby as to mapping and interpreting seismic and in drilling wells. Then they do one of their own, dismissing the cautionary advice of better-informed observers, to whom they referred as Martians, and it took several times as long, at several times the expense, as they, the management, had confidently predicted. I agree with you, Wingas got it right. No one is interested, apparently, in asking the management what that sidetrack cost. A sensible shareholder would be very interested in that information. The ex-Wimgas management were probably cheering on Lord Lucan when the gas price got up briefly to 800p but the amusing but hapless Earl missed it by a few months and shareholders have been paying the price ever since.
Lots of small investors here are impressed with the gross turnover figures being bandied about. After the royalty, and, much more importantly, the purchase of further capital equipment at Saltfleetby, the gradually dwindling gas flow won’t get near the cost of the planned investment. Unless, of course, the gas price takes another big hike upwards. It’s just a gamble, isn’t it? The supporters here would be more honest, really, if they made it clear that this is the whole of the investment case for Angus.
Oofy.
Little mention either of the essential planned workover on SF4 either that will drop production considerably whilst it’s carried out.
I don’t think anyone picked up on the fact that the new drill at Saltfleetby slated for the end of this year has now been pushed to the middle of next year, or the fact that the new compressor package is now not October delivery but now Q4….thats Next year then if any previous timeline supplied is to go by.
It’s again mind boggling that they are only now applying for planning permission at both Brockham for water injection from elsewhere (good luck with that), they have had 3 years to do this!, and at Saltfleetby also. I think looking back they will also have to apply to the EA for permission and that cane take over a year!?!, perhaps that’s one reason for the drill being pushed back? And of course the fact that they can’t actually afford to do it at a cooof £5 million listed in the CPR ( that also seems a bit light following the previous drilling disaster).
Yes it seems Wingas had a far better understanding of the situation when they gave the field and what appears to be £12.8 million to a one man band with £87k in the account when they walked away.
HITS: yes, there’s little mention here of falling quarterly production or the fact that, while forward contract volumes start to fall off soon, the contractual price has reduced for the next six months to 36.5p (is it?). I seem to recall Lord Lucan ages ago referring to Angus’s prospective operating breakeven as being in the mid-20s - that was before they took the £12mm. loan, if memory serves. In order just to maintain current production levels (which at about 7mmscfd seem to me to be way below earlier expectations for three wells and two compressors) they are planning to drill more wells. Those had better find gas, and at quantities that justify the cost of the drills. I’m not convinced that their experience in the drilling of the sidetrack (which seems to have been done by completely different personnel at Angus) is going to prove of huge use, given the heavily faulted nature of the field. Certainly, Wingas didn’t fancy it.
In my posts, I concentrate on the future but it hasn't all been "fortune telling", RH has also been discussing the past.
I don't know Ocelot, I don't waste my life listening to jack off webinars & interviews, they are for those that enjoy being pumped, I prefer to stick to the realities of the industry, for which I don't need his fortune telling stuff for.
From 01:09 says that:
they are currently about 65% hedged on their production and that, as of June, this will change to more like 55%, providing more upward exposure to current gas prices.
Bubblepoint,
In your 2nd paragraph, think you are preaching to the converted, given what RH has said in the webinar and in this interview.
""We know that we can run mature assets well. We have a lot of experience in field rehabilitation and mature field management, ""
Yeah, that's great Richard, BUT there is no point being good at something if you cannot do it in a way that is economical, doesn't involve payday debt, doesn't dilute the daylights out of it to get there, and tell lies along the way.
Mature/depleted fields are plentiful, the problem as always is the easy stuff is long gone, the remaining stuff will always be borderline on if it can be recovered with a profit fact !!!
What it will do is always give enough for THEM to keep their lights on and salaries covered, fact !!
As for anything that may additionally exist at SLBY, well one thing is certain, it will not be cheap to find out... they have first hand experience at THAT !!
Where might they be looking for growth opportunities?
From 12:23:
"We will play to our strengths. We know that we can run mature assets well. We have a lot of experience in field rehabilitation and mature field management, ..."