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I have to say, 2017 was like eating strawberries everyday. 2018 is like eating sawdust. Very boring year for the company to date.
well as said before, i'm with the board and a'm expecting for the Mtwara PSA Licence to be extended and soon, and once granted (the Mtwara PSA licence) becomes the basic document for negotiations between foreign oil companies, the Government and the TPDC, in other words it is the essential document that allows all concerned to negotiate formulate a Development licence, It is the document that sets out the terms under which exploration and production can take place. prelims " The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence, possibly until January 2020, during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised." "During 2016, Aminex received formal ministerial approval for a one-year extension to the Mtwara Licence, to January 2018 and expects to be granted a further extension to the Mtwara Licence. Although the Lindi Licence technically expired on 28 January 2017, negotiations are in progress. The Board had expected an extension to the Lindi Licence to be granted but subsequent discussions with the TPDC indicate the likelihood of being able to formalise an entirely new PSA in conjunction with the TPDC, which would enable further development and exploration to be carried out in conjunction with the Mtwara Licence area". Model Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) "Tanzania's Model PSA serves as the basic document for negotiations between foreign oil companies, the Government and TPDC. It sets out the terms under which exploration and production can take place." Http://www.tpdc.co.tz/legalservice.php
At last yea's agm the board set a few priorities such as lodging the licence application, get a CPR completed, monetise N2 and drill N3, as it was then called. One and two have been sorted and we wait for the others. The thing is, Aminex can get its owm work done but anything that requires the TPDC or the Ministry of Energy to have an input is very dependent on the mood of those bodies. Who would have thought that 12 months on we are not much wiser about KN1. Yes, we are going to re-drill, but when? Or that we still don't know if we have sourced a rig or not for CH1. At the agm it will be difficult to pin down BH and JB on specifics, so questions will have to be detailed and direct. In any case, when push comes to shove, what's said at the agm can quickly be sidelined in favour of whatever the board deems necessary and preferable. I hope those who can attend will have pencils and questions sharpened. A board always has a certain amount of advantage over the holders in that they have information and thay have time to prepare answers to tricky questions. GLA
If you were the Zubair Corporation / ARA what would you be looking to farm into: especially when the companies looking for a farm out are caught between a rock and a hard place.
It seems Pete that whichever way we look at these things we always find more questions than answers. Hopefully the AGM will put us all right
An extension Drewky would apply from the date that the last one "expired" and so be half way through already as it is already over 18 months "out of date". More importantly the License concerned was an Exploration License whereas the more recent Ntorya License was an Appraisal License; the BoD have already stated that as the two areas are geologically joined and thereby, to all intents and purposes, inseparable they were looking to bring the two licenses into line. When new licenses are created the operator usually has to pay for the concession, so this "new" license might just be an excuse for the TPDC to get more money out of AEX; I am sure that AEX would like to flower it up as an extension and thereby avoid additional costs. Maybe they will get away with this one. Time will tell I guess. I personally would expect the Ntorya Development area to be separate from the other areas, whether that be one or two - so it will be interesting to see what it is that the Zubairs are looking to farm in to. One, two or all three licenses.
Extract taken from monsters university lol
I’ll take that on board drewky. Seems aex and solo are getting hammered of late and it’s most unwelcoming. Can you hear that............. the winds of change
Then do yourself a favour willow and stop looking for the worst in everything, it won't do your nerves any good
I need this to come good, all this lark about only put in what you can afford to lose, well I haven’t done that so come in jay in the words of delia ‘let’s be avin you’
I think we should wait until the AGM before putting out scary predictions willow. As I said last week when you tender to provide a service or do some work you price it up based on a time scale and you wouldn't commit yourself to a price this year and hold it to next. If the tender is sorted by end of June I think we will safely see a drill this year. August the earliest I would think but maybe Nov/Dec.
The way things look one has to wonder whether it will happen this year. Lots of delays etc. Clearly I would like to see it happen but considering we haven’t had spud date yet let alone a rig contract I’m just being cautious and throwing some ideas out there. Maybe things will start to move rather quickly soon but I doubt it
So where do you get the idea we will have a three way operation? The why I read TPDC suggested to apply for a completely new license rather than extend a previous one. I'm guessing may be for longevity reasons as I imagine any extension granted would be for a shorter period of time than would a completely new one. Personally TPDC recommending such things could be seen as a positive. It has already been clearly stated that they intend to drill this year and that drilling Ch1 is not reliant on the licence. So what in their statement tells you it's going to be 2019? You also say "ntyora will need 3 wells to warrant a pipeline so the tdpc will want that well drilled before the license is issued" well for one thing they already have two of them drilled and for another TPDC as we understand have already agreed the development licence and have recommended the application for government approval. I say that with conviction because it is a clause in agreement ment that TPDC have to approve all applications first. Therefore it is the redtape of governmental haggling that is the likely hold up and perhaps not that of the TPDC
As regards to funding wouldn’t it be better to drill a well near kilwani south as it’s closer to the plant? Also ntyora will need 3 wells to warrant a pipeline so the tdpc will want that well drilled before the license is issued. Aex haven’t the cash to complete this fast enough but the zubs do
my understanding is that all the existing licenses will be scrapped and a new license will be formed which will involve the tdpc zubs and aex as the operator. Can see it dragging out for months. Although jay did say that they expect the farm out to be completed second half of year so lots of ????
Can you give reasons for your thoughts willow?
Ch-1 clearly will not happen this year, I’d be very surprised if it does. springtime 2019 I reckon at a guess. Happy to be wrong, in fact I’d be delighted. A drill seems to be the only thing to shift the sp north. Welcome the herd
It's a fair point but I certainly hope we are not waiting that long for Ch1
The new license extension is likely to run only until 2020. If C1 isn't drilled until Q2/3 2019 that hardly leave much time to drill any more before the proprosed license extension actually runs out..... But that underlines the point of we are to do any drills after C1 within the current license extension and if we want seismics done in advance of those drills we can hardly leave the permissions for seismics until after the extensions have been approved because the license would be over before we got those permissions in place (they can take 18 - 24 months) and had time to use them.
Now therein lies a good alternative and logical possibility and though it would be really nice surprise to see requirement for 4 & 5 to follow quite quickly, somehow I can't see that happening for a variety of demand reasons. TBH I would still think we may be a year or more after CH1 before they are drilled. Like everything else the devil is in the detail we are not yet privy to.
So as I tried to explain; the "why now?" question for the seismics in my view is because it is "part and parcel" of the License extension and Dev License approval; there is bugger all use having a license if your ability to satisfy your drilling obligations is compromised by not being able to do seismics over the area in advance of drilling. Licences have fixed terms and drilling obligations; not to be able to do seismics over the area before drilling would be a big risk, both commercially and politically. If the demand curve for gas rises steeply in 2018 -2019 and we are required to drill NT4 and 5 in quick succession after C1 we may want to do seismics before drilling or defer the drill until we could... which would be worse? A drill blow out or incurring the wrath of the TPDC for not drilling to meet their demands. Take your pick. Apologies Drewky didn't mean to be so short.
The crap Pete is you are not reading what I am asking and you are fixating on the word oil :-(( I shall just have to ask the horse at the AGM
So, Drewky NR thought that seismics needed to be done for the drilling of NT3 for goodness sake and that, at the time, was before they were drilling for Oil in NT3. So why now? why now what? Seismics? No, as I said there is no reason to believe that seismics are happening now! The permissions? may be because without them there wasn;t much point extending or approving a License?! IF not that then what? The farm out? Because they need the money for C1 drill , Nyuni and Kiliwani South seismics and drill and, just as possibly, ex-Tanzania acquisitions..... Bugger all to do, directly, with Oil. But enough of this crap, life's too short.
You've said just about everything in 27 different ways pinks!
Did I say there was an urgency? NO! I said that AEX have applied for Environmental approval and they have got it! I don't disagree that they can now do the surveys as and when the need arises! My point was that it is highly unusual for AEX to work ahead of themselves and I, just like you, cannot see the need for doing seismics in the near future. I am therefore questioning why they are getting these permissions sorted so early because it is out of character with the companies usual pace. Your second paragraph supports me because as you state we have much more to do before this happens so again why apply so early? unless as you say on the off chance we do find oil, but again I guess we could be perhaps a year away before any action if so. I am also assuming all of these applications for licences and permits etc have to be paid for by AEX so if cash strapped why do things so far in advance of need? I'm not saying there is oil but NR made a big issue over the fact he felt seismics should be done and it appeared the two bods disagreed over it! I am looking for the reason why the bod have gone ahead of themselves on this, no more, no less. As said it is out of character for them! We know they are targeting oil and searching for more potential oil pockets was the only potential reason I could think of and I was asking people their thoughts on it. My thoughts are not cast in stone anymore than anyone else's and I may well be totally wrong but if I am, then the WHYs in my questions have not been answered. Why Now?