HgCapital Trust plc Company Research (HGT)

HgT reported an NAV total return (TR) decline of 5.4% in Q126, resulting from a 9% impact from a contraction in multiples used to value its holdings, driven by an indiscriminate sell-off in public software stocks. This was partly offset by a 5% contribution from strong earnings growth across its portfolio, which historically has been the key return driver. Last-12-month (LTM) revenue and EBITDA increased by 16% and 19%, respectively (of which 10% and 17% were organic), similar to 2025 figures. This brought the trust’s five- and 10-year NAV TRs to 10.9% per year and 16.1% per year, respectively. The average EBITDA margin across HgT’s portfolio remains healthy at 34%, with potential further upside from AI-driven reductions in R&D and customer support costs. The discount to NAV at which HgT’s shares trade has widened significantly this year to c 30% currently, much wider than its 2021–25 average of 9%. Hg (HgT’s manager) estimates that this implies a look-through EV to LTM EBITDA ratio of c 17x. We calculate this to be below the current c 20x weighted average multiple for US SaaS businesses based on their earnings for their last financial year.