Member Info for ZYX098

Craignews,

Bwahahahahahaha.

It's an EXPLORATION Well, not an APPRAISAL Well - do your research and learn the difference!

Also, it isn't due for completion next month - it won't even have spudded by then as the site won't be ready until late May.

So spud 1st week June (presuming the rig is immediately available), wells in that vicinity take around 45 days, then a couple of days TD logging, so an RNS on the results due late July.

If you think I'm clueless, what does that make you?

Seadoc,

I think he may try and squeese a tad more, so maybe 0.22p?

Agreed - Monday 7am is going to tell us.

UKOG are taking part in an exploration program in Turkey, due to spud in early June.
They don't have the money and the only way they can raise it is with a placing.

Simple enough for you?

Or would you rather believe the evangelical rampers, who are nowhere to be seen now that what the 'scaremongers' were saying over the last two days has been proven to be correct?

Jonesrichard,

You do understand what a placing actually does to the share price, right?

It kicks it very hard in the nuts - witness UKOG's previous history of placings, where they have raised more than £70 Million in placings and managed to turn that into Company with a market capital of only £45 Million.

As for a placing in the 2/3/4/5p range, that is pure fantasy.

The market will look at this dispassionately (unlike the blatant rampers who have crawled out of the woodwork this week), look at the potential value of Turkey and come to the conclusion that it's only worth another 0.3p at best on the share price.

It has to come soon to pay for Turkey and I doubt it will be at much more than 0.2p unless SS moves very quick and also buys some himself.

Investor112

Instead of throwing out gratuitous insults, perhaps you could enlighten us as to how UKOG are going to pay for Turkey, if not through a placing?

Newbee007

I think if you look at past postings, the 'derampers' are the ones who are the LTH's.

The question you should be asking yourself is why are so many on here mindlessly ramping when they have no holding?

"Ramper" - Numerous posts (often from multiple accounts), opinions without offering and hard evidence. Gets approval from other rampers.
"Deramper" - Occasional posts, opinions backed up by facts, logic and reason. Gets abuse from Rampers, who don't actually answer any of the points the 'deramper' has made.

Phoebus,

Facts aren't being listened to, only the incessant rampers who have come out of the woodwork in the last couple of days.

There are even a couple of new posters claiming to have the proverbial "eyes on site"!

Uchet - take your profit now. What is happening here is pure ramping and has no basis in reality.

Aquakidd - being ramped to oblivion! Just sold one tranche at a profit, the other tranche I'm so far down on I might as well keep it going...

CynderLad - what's been happening over the last 2 days has gone way beyond common sense..

Still posting facts Penguins?

But I fear that you are telling truth to those who will not listen, because it doesn't match their own view of the world....

Sageman,

Agreed - I also could have done a bit more research on the taxes / ongoing licence costs of operating in Turkey plus added in UKOG's overheads, but I reasoned that if I kept it simple and was on the optimistic side, then the rampers couldn't take too many pot shots at the maths!

Maybe - but if you'd care to point out where, I'll happily invoke rule no. 6..

Wizard - can you point to any factual inaccuracies in my post?

I'm all ears....

Come on people, do the maths.

IF (and it's a big 'if')IT'S A DISCOVERY;

Possible OIIP for Basur-Resan = 37 Million bbls.
UKOG share = 18.5 Million bbls.
Be generous and presume a 50% recovery factor, production to UKOG = 9.25 Million bbls.
12.5% tax to the Turkish Govt = 1.16 million bbls
NOTE - there are likely other taxes and costs, but let's be optimistic here....
So UKOG remaining share = 8.09 million bbls.
Presume an oil price of $65/bbl and stated production costs of $15/bbl - Net Profit of $50/bbl (does NOT account for UKOG Overheads).
8,090,000 x 50 = $404,500,000
Presume drilling & development costs for 15 Wells = $64 Million
$404,500,000 - 64,000,000 = $340,500,000
Currently (soon to change!) 12.96 Billion shares in circulation.
$340,500,000 / 12,960,000,000 = $0.0263 per share = £0.0191 per share

So IF there is no more dilution, IF it's a discovery and IF it's of the size that SS predicts, then the value to the share price over the life of the field is just 1.91p / share - and that excludes UKOG's overheads.

So talk of "5p", "10p" is just hopeless fantasy land ramping.

Come on people, do the maths.

IF (and it's a big 'if')IT'S A DISCOVERY;

Possible OIIP for Basur-Resan = 37 Million bbls.
UKOG share = 18.5 Million bbls.
Be generous and presume a 50% recovery factor, production to UKOG = 9.25 Million bbls.
12.5% tax to the Turkish Govt = 1.16 million bbls
So UKOG remaining share = 8.09 million bbls.
Presume an oil price of $65/bbl and stated production costs of $15/bbl - Net Profit of $50/bbl (does NOT account for UKOG Overheads).
8,090,000 x 50 = $404,500,000
Presume drilling & development costs for 15 Wells = $64 Million
$404,500,000 - 64,000,000 = $340,500,000
Currently (soon to change!) 12.96 Billion shares in circulation.
$340,500,000 / 12,960,000,000 = $0.0263 per share = £0.0191 per share

So IF there is no more dilution, IF it's a discovery and IF it's of the size that SS predicts, then the value to the share price over the life of the field is just 1.91p / share - and that excludes UKOG's overheads.

So talk of "5p", "10p" is just hopeless fantasy land ramping.

Olidav, you are not allowed to bring in common sense and realism to this board - it upsets too many of the blatant rampers who have been out in force yesterday and today.

Site completion late May.
7 - 10 days to move in, R/U and acceptance test the rig.
C. 45 days Spud to TD & logging.

The current movement appears to be on the basis of someone overhead in a bar in Istanbul that Turkish investors were buying into UKOG because they couldn't buy into AME........

The only BoD member who bought some was the CFO when he first came on board and probably didn't know any better.
I think he's down around 90% at the moment...