Member Info for ZYX098

Penguins,

You are wasting your time posting those things called facts and using reason & analysis to draw conclusions.

The blatant rampers will just ignore them anyway, and continue posting their fantastical forecasts.

Forgot - he not only had a post of mine removed, he had the entire "Gibbs' rule No. 39" thread removed this morning!

From a post by Ninetails;
"Firstly I am no XR, nimby, swampy or whatever, and I do hope their signs get blown away and indeed their camps washed away as well, I am also no deramper I am just a disgruntled shareholder, still holding in hope... I bought in on what I thought was proper research, and continued to invest on the hype from the ceo, whom at the time I thought was an honest hard working oil man, I would love this to turn around and at least get some money back, but I feel that it is a very long shot... Then you get the ramping Trolls that have been posting daily for years the same Jam tomorrow ramping nonsense that has never come true in any shape or form, as in continually predicting multi baggs for over 2 years as the price has continually multi dropped, it beggars belief... And anyone that points this out gets their posts removed or banned, come on LSE sort this out, for the honest, private investors who frequents this board, to assess any real news and development with the company, with an open mind."

And now the principle ramper openly claims to have commercially sensitive information (should be an impossibility, but if he does, it has to be in violation of stock markets rules), but the post is still not removed.

So LSE, I have some questions;

A) How does this poster apparently know when and who has reported a particular post of his?
B) Why are even his most outrageous posts never removed?
C) How can he get innocuous posts removed in retaliation?
D) How can he get posters actually banned from LSE for - well - nothing?

The conclusion is obvious...

Mirasol - you know he won't reply, as he's off in LaLa Land by himself and just making it all up as he goes along.

I've reported that particular post - and fully expect it to remain up, while this one is removed in retaliation.

Cynderlad,

Fully agree.

I've just reported one of his posts for just that.

If past form is anything to go by, his post will not be removed, but mine will.

Gibbs' rule No. 39.......

Ibug,

Well Owain and reality don't meet....

Looking at their photos, I'd say they actually need to do a lot more work on the access road - look at how the graders tyres have marked the surface.

If that's the case, then they might also have to put a lot of gravel on the location to enable it to meet the ground loading requirements of the rig ancillaries - otherwise they'll have to put the mud pumps, gen sets and mud tanks on their own concrete pads.

I now see on the twitter post that they are saying 60 days to prep, so that would imply a spud more like 2nd / 3rd week in May.

At this stage in the preparations, the only weather related thing that would slow them down in prolonged rain.

They'll need to compact the pad location for all the heavy equipment and put down a concrete pad for the Cellar and the rig substructure to sit on.

Normally two weeks curing time is needed before you'd set the Rig substructure on it.

Can't see from the photos if they've done any compaction yet.

Presuming not, then 3 - 4 days to compact and settle the site. Another 2 - 3 days to dig the cellar, install the surface conductor & grout in place, line the cellar and do the concrete pour for the cellar and rig pad. A week to dig the reserve pit and lay the water lines while moving in & rig up the camp and rig ancillaries. A week to move in and prep the rig itself while continuing to rig up everything else. 2 days to raise the substructure and mast. 3 days to install all the power, control and instrumentation cabling. 2 - 3 days acceptance testing.

So spud somewhere during the last week in April.

A) If Turkey is a success, any cash flow generated will have to go towards funding the continued Turkey development program. In that respect, when would UKOG be in a position to repatriate any profits from Turkey back to the UK?

B) Presuming the PI rejects SCC's case for refusing permission to drill Loxley, what is UKOG's panned timetable for drilling the prospect? Where will the funds come from to do this?

C) If Loxely is a success, how will UKOG monetise this asset, in what time-frame and how much will it cost to do so?

Nomlungu;
You cannot compare an offshore Norwegian Fields costs with onshore UK - they are so different it's not even close to being apples vs. oranges.

The £49/bbl quoted by Angus in their presentation is absurd - no Onshore Field in the UK would be viable at that rate. I'd believe £4.9/bbl as being much more in the ballpark.

At that disposal cost ballpark, then HH should be viable if it produces a steady c. 100 BOPD (which we don't know) and the water cut of c. 24% is steady (we don't know that either).

But given the Overheads of UKOG, is it going to produce enough cash flow to fund any one of Loxley, HH expansion or the outstanding Turkey cash requirements?

No, it's not.

Cynder - be honest, were you actually expecting a reply from TH2?

"Return on investment by end of September 2022"

Fixed it for you.....

Gosh, I wonder where all the snow that was allegedly stopping them working until yesterday went to so quickly?!

Ninetails - same here! Obviously he can't stand it when people who actually know something about the oilfield call him out on his posts.

TH2: "They told us after the winter and the whole region is covered in a foot of snow. Simples.
It thaws in April and drilling will start."

You honestly think a little snow stops us from drilling?

How shockingly naïve.....

But then again, that's in line with your desperate ramping efforts and refusal to answer any questions with actual facts to back up your position.

Zoom,

I'm afraid your basic assumption is not correct.

If it was, then Fawley would have rejected shipments from ALL Onshore UK producers and that is simply not the case.

This is confirmed by the production figures from the OGA and lack of RNS's from any of the Operators - which they would be required to issue as it would have a direct effect on their bottom line.

Indeed, it is only through the OGA figures that we have any real idea of the water cut problems being seen on HH.

The amounts of crude that Fawley deals with effectively means it is neither here nor there what they take from Onshore UK - they'd just call forward one less Super tanker from Overseas if they needed to reduce throughput.

UKOG has always been able to sell all the oil it can produce, the only effect of Coivd was to reduce the oil price they'd get at Fawley. Note that the oil price has ALWAYS exceeded their stated production cost/bbl.

The simple fact is that UKOG have made a right mess of things at HH. They have compounded this by wasting valuable time & scarce resources chasing Turkey when they should have been focusing on sorting out the issues with HH.

As a direct result of their abysmal management, UKOG are now in a position where they need £5 Million (at least) to fund Turkey and around £7 Million to £10 Million to fund their near future UK work programmes (excluding Arreton) before any of them (potentially) produce a positive cash flow.

This is cash that they simply do not have and, at the moment, no clear route as to how they'd be able to raise it.

I suspect I'm one of the many who have seen their original investment go down by 90%+, so that there is so little left it's not worth selling to invest elsewhere.

In that case, might as well leave it in here in the forlorn hope that it'll climb to a range where it's possible to get some decent money back. In my case, my breakeven is 0.94p and I'd seriously consider selling if it ever got to 0.5p.

But although their prospect inventory looks semi decent, it's going to take some £12 - £15 Million to try and monetise them all - presuming that they are all successful, which is by no means certain - especially with the current management team.

Even then, I don't see them being cash generative until at least 2023 and in the meantime, where are they going to get the cash from?

I can see raising maybe £2.5 million from another dilution, so where's the rest of it coming from?

In the meantime, the lack of information on Turkey and HH, plus zero engagement with the shareholders by the BoD is shameful.

Penguins,

You are wasting your time with TH2 - he/she never answers any posts which ask him/her to back up his/her fanciful claims for 'profits this year' etc.

Your points are valid.

The continued silence of UKOG on basic production data and where the money is going to come from to fund their announced work program was, and continues to be, disgraceful.

TH 2
What profits?

There won't be any this year.

Turkey expenditure alone will see to that, never mind if they actually do any of the planned work at HH - for which they have no funding available.

And I'm still waiting to hear your explanation (y'know, with FACTS and hard numbers) as to why you keep ramping this share...

Only with a 100:1 consolidation...

Markshares,

If you put forward a motion to remove Sanderson, then you also have to propose his replacement at the same time.