Member Info for ZYX098

I'm more curious as to why the anticipated dry hole cost dropped from $0.66 Million to $0.4 Million, at a time when Oilfield costs are seeing substantial cost increases and the Turkish Lira has been falling against the $US.

Vernonya,

Pinarova will "find" oil.

But the RNS will be very carefully worded (as is usual with UKOG) to highlight the oil shows and any oil production on test, while minimising the water production that is bound to accompany it...

After all, they still describe Basur-1 as having 'tested the equivalent of 2,000 BOPD in a six hour test', while failing to mention that the test was aborted after six hours because it started producing water.

While SS may "clearly believes there is a message to be promoted to the market.", so far the reaction of the market has been a big fat 'meh'.

Chances of Angus farming in are less than 1%.

They have had several years to look into a potential farm in, notwithstanding the Court case which prompted the "pre-planned farm-out" RNS.

Since that RNS, they've had ample time to farm in. and haven't (and neither has anyone else for that matter).

Now they have their own cash flow problems, so can't fund it from their own cash reserves and no bank would give them a loan against a CPR that contains no "P" category reserves - if a bank would, UKOG could do it themselves.

The market's reaction to the CPR (zero...) shows that it added no value to UKOG.

Spending by Angus to reduce their EPL tax liability would only apply to their own projects - I don't see how it would apply to a farm in to another Companies licence.

The only potential I see is a "bottom hole contribution" (not a farm in) from IGas, as the structure (according to UKOG's mapping) extends into their block. And they don't appear to be hammering at the door...

Ells,

The investors did digest the news - which is why (as predicted) the share price fell back to it's normal range once the ramptastic crew had finished their P&D work.

UKOG have had several years to try and farm this out.

When they RNS'd that "the pre-planned farm-out" would take place, the ramptastic crew took that to mean that the farm out was imminent - which it clearly wasn't.

As pointed out before (several times), the CPR just showed potential 2C reserves, not 2P reserves.

Anyone in the industry would know the substantial difference that that makes and that all the forecasts of potential value and cash flow to the Company are, in reality, meaningless.

In addition, they would also recognise the red flags that the CPR raised; reservoir quality, gas composition, depth conversion, gas price used and that RPS felt obliged to include the case of water encroachment, even though UKOG had clearly told them not to.

Hence why the share price fell back to it's normal range...

"ZYX. Will you agree this fabulous news? No..thought not loool."

Haven't read through my recent posting history, have you?

Rocky's Wife.

I can post wherever I like - you just hate me posting here, because I can point out the giant hole in your assertions..

If those of us who actually know what we are talking about didn't post the facts here, then you and the blatant ramptastic crew would be free to post their fantasies, so they can make personal gains on the P&D spikes.

You obviously have no ethics whatsoever, otherwise you wouldn't feel the need to use a VPN to create multiple fake ID's to post your nonsense.

BTW, how did your short on RR work out?

You know, the one where you were claiming RR would fall to 50p and (as usual) hurled insults at anyone who dared to question you.

How has the RR share price done since then?

I'll tell you, it's gone from 95p to 147p.

That short must have burned a big hole in your bank account..

"Steady rise"

Maths not your strong point, is it?

Rocky's Wife,

Referring to your self in the 3rd person is rather weird.

So why are you doing it?

Rocky's Wife,

"Ells has been predicting correctly" - you are kidding, right?

He got EVERYTHING wrong.

He (and you) gave me grief ("deramper" was the least childish insult) when I predicted the share price would be back down to 0.06 - 0.065p by the end of February, but I was correct.

But, like I and several others (those who actually work in the Oil industry, as opposed to being a fire extinguisher salesman) pointed out, the CPR added no value to the Company as all it identified were 2C reserves, not 2P.

In addition, it also raised several red flags with respect to depth conversion (i.e. is the structure actually there), gas composition (H2S & CO2 both present) and the reservoir quality being highly variable.

Hence why so far nobody has decided to farm in - not even IGas, whose block UGOK's mapping shows the structure going into.

BTW, you said that I couldn't be trusted (plus the usual gratuitous insults) because I called the Well HH-1z instead of HH-1.

"HH-1z doesn't exist" you said.

Since you want to be picky, I would like to point out that HH2/z doesn't exist either....

Billy,

Small point - "increased oil cut is a given".

Actually, as Decembers figures show, it's not.

When they (finally!!) get HH-2 onto injection, oil production will increase, but water production will increase more, so the oil cut will actually decrease.

As you may be aware, UKOG have not been producing HH-1z 24hrs/day, because when they did so the increased water production overwhelmed the oil production.

When they have HH-2 injection online, it will be interesting to see how they plan to stage up production from HH-1.

I don't think they've stated what the injection rate limit of the surface equipment is, or what the limit set by the DEN (or whatever name they go under these days) and the EA is?

Either of these could ultimately be the limiting factor in production because (as others have pointed out elsewhere) their currently monthly gas flaring is less than they are allowed to flare every day..

Hopefully they will be doing the sensible thing and spiking the injection water with a tracer, so they will know if the injection water shows up in the production well.

Ocelot,

Not just me, but the markets - which is why the share price has done nothing since.

Yes, Loxley may be worth drilling, but the CPR itself raised several red flags as noted by Penguins, myself and others.

As the old saying goes; "Don't count your chickens...."

Ocelot,

The only part of your post that is relevant is the current MCap.

The reserves and predicted cash flows in the CPR for Loxley are meaningless, as it only refers to 2C reserves.

I said as much while the ramptastic crew were in full force, and forecast the share price would end the month between 0.06p and 0.065p.

Looks like I'm going to be on the money.

IBug,

Interesting reading - especially the section where Shale Gas from the Kimm was used to lights the streets in Wareham back in 1848!

The original 'shale oil'.... ;)

I'm guessing he passed away some years ago?

Pit, would have been nice to have asked him about a story that is continually doing the rounds.

So the story goes, in the mid-1930's, a section of the cliff in Dorset was stuck by lightning, caught fire due to the oil seep and burned for several months. Never been able to track it down, so could well be apocryphal. But a nice story.

Ibug,

Wizard is actually correct - they do not produce 24/7 so they can manage the water cut.

As they can onsite dispose of the water at a minimal cost (probably £2 - £4/bbl), they shouldn't have to do that now.

But they cannot afford to open the taps up too much, as they are clearly producing below the reservoir bubble point and so will be limited by the amount of gas that they are allowed to produce & flare.

Also, the water quality of the injection water has to be matched with the production water from a chemical (mainly salinity) perspective, so that it doesn't affect the reservoir properties (i.e. produce an adverse reaction with the shales & clays). Nothing to do with the eco-warriors.

Ideally they might be able to truck water from other sites which don't have water injection facilities, reducing their treatment costs and also charging other Operators a fee for water disposal.

"MMS want shares"

Been hearing that since, ohhh, October last year....

IBug,

Despite all their missteps in actually running the Company, the Wells will have been drilled to UK Regulatory standards, so the odds of these boreholes showing any signs of oil will be vanishingly small. On HH, there are two cemented casing strings across the surface section.

The only Well I can think of in the UK where there was an issue was at Singleton, where it was so small that it took several years to identify that there was actually a problem and then longer to establish where the oil was coming from before a successful plan to stop it was executed.

In that particular case, it was complicated by the fact that the monitoring of the water well at a local farm close to the site showed that oil was naturally seeping up before the first Well had been drilled!

Same situation at Waddocks Cross - not that there was a leak from the Well during production, but that monitoring of a local farmers water well showed that oil was naturally seeping up anyway, before drilling had commenced. The farmer even had the original water well records which had a comment about a "strong oily smell" encountered during drilling.

There are several naturally occurring oil seeps in Southern UK, including at Mupe Bay and along the Dorset "Jurassic Coast". On a geology field trip, we took a small chunk of rock off the cliff and were able to set fire to it, due to the oil that was in it!

Finally getting round to doing something that they should have done months ago.

Certainly shows the claim by the ramptastic crew that nothing was happening at HH due to the forthcoming June SC case was nonsense.

Odd that the 'eyes' claim lots of tankers being spotted, but never saw the rig that drilled these monitoring boreholes...

That cost/bbl for water disposal is higher than that assumed by those of us who have been doing the 'back-of-the-envelope' economics calculations for HH, so they were loosing more money than we thought.

The RNS statement that water injection will help maintain reservoir pressure is, of course, disingenuous.

If you produce 75 BPD of Oil & Water, but only reinject 25 BWPD, then the reservoir pressure will still drop.

I don't recall any statement where they said they might tanker in more water to increase the injection rate and actually try to support the reservoir pressure?

Perhaps they are waiting to see where the water actually ends up going before they consider that?

Otherwise production rates are going to continue to be limited by the amount of gas production, because they are obviously producing below the reservoir bubble point.

Vernonya,

SS was obligated to buy for about a year, but stopped as soon as that obligation expired.

The obligation was a magnificent £1k per month - or about a day's salary.

Considering it potentially saved his job, (there was an online move growing to put a vote of no confidence in him to the AGM which precipitated the share buying), it was a genius move in terms of job preservation.

Unfortunately he has yet to show his genius in any other aspect of running UKOG.

Was busy this morning.

Looks like Ells has disappeared, along with a bunch of my posts.

Did he finally go off the deep end, heartbroken that his uber ramping had produced absolutely nothing?

Good.

Hopefully he won't come back, so the board can finally get back to being what it should be for - reasoned debate and sharing of ideas, not mindless BS.