Member Info for ZYX098

Oopsie!

"The CPR proved nothing, as it listed only 2C reserves, not 2C reserves."

should read;

The CPR proved nothing, as it listed only 2C reserves, not 2P reserves.

And what portion of those holders are sitting on an investment that is so far down it's hardly worth selling?

The lack of movement in the share price after the announcement that Pin would be drilled and then it's Spud shows what the market thinks.

Judging by the weak P&D yesterday, you are going to have to be quick to catch the P&D after the RNS announcing the results...

Otherwise you will be locked in until the drilling of Loxley-1.

Ocelot,

The 91p tax relief is only against any EPL that they pay, not the complete expenditure.

"Give the lessons learned and valuable experience gained from SFB would the Board consider farming into or acquiring UKOGs Loxley gas asset?"
What lessons learned would be applicable to Loxley from SFB? They are in completely different basins producing from different formations and a different source rock.

"Loxley looks to be an attractive asset and we will always look at attractive assets at the right price."
A) Stated before the issue of the Loxley CPR.
B) Stated before the recent SFB side-track.
C) ANG aren't going to rubbish another AIM minnows primary prospect, as they know the effect it would have on the share price.

Have IGas said anything about Loxley, considering the UKOG mapping shows a large portion of the structure is in their block?
No.
Their silence on Loxley over the years speaks volumes.

MM,

The CPR proved nothing, as it listed only 2C reserves, not 2C reserves.

Which is very odd considering UKOG continually refer to it as a 'Discovery' and Loxley-1 as an 'Appraisal' Well.

The complete lack of reaction to the CPR in terms of share price movement showed exactly what the market though of it - i.e. it added no value to the Company whatsoever.

They will have to do another CPR after Loxley-1 (presuming it's successful) and show what the 2P reserves are (plus use a more realistic economic model) before they can access the debt funding mentioned by SS.

I see EV is back.

Again.

It's a water tanker providing water for the drilling operation....

"Planning consent will be granted when Loxley project is farmed out for a substantial amount of money."
Wow.
The planning consent has nothing to do with any farmout.
The two are not connected in any way.

There have been no takers for the 'pre-planned' farmout, and nor will there be.
The CPR showed only 2C reserves - which is very odd considering UKOG keep calling it a 'discovery' and the Loxley Well an appraisal.
The most obvious candidate to do something is IGas, considering the UKOG mapping shows a large part of the structure is in their block.
But they have had years do do something about the prospect (including farming in or making a bottom hole contribution to Loxley), and haven't.
Nobody else will farm in.
Claiming Angus will for tax reasons is pie in the sky thinking. They need to recoup their extra expenditure on the Saltfleetby Well, and that will take time, even if they were interested in Loxley - which they haven't, despite certain posters trying to indicate otherwise by selectively quoting a remark one of their management made.

"A large oil and gas firm will take the reins and be successful"
Absolute pie in the sky.
The large Oil Co's gave up on Onshore UK decades ago.

This all sounds like Ells line of thought....

Ocelot,

Of course I want UKOG to succeed.

But that doesn't mean I won't call out the BS posted by the ramptastic crowd, or not criticise a BoD that have failed spectacularly to do anything other than line their own pockets.

Billy101203 - to cut a very long story short, my initial investment (paper share certificate!) was a couple of months after the initial results of HH-1 were announced. I liked the look of HH and Arrington and thought the Company had some potential. On the fence concerning BB, but never thought much of Loxley, even back then.

I missed all the hype, as I went Overseas to help on a project for a few weeks, which was in such bad shape it turned into several months and when I eventually returned, the share price had dropped substantially.

I averaged down twice before stopping any more investment, as it became clear that the BoD were flailing around, HH wasn't as advertised and they got rid of Arrington.

Sold all my online buys on P&D's to reduce my losses, but still left with the original paper cert, which I resigned long ago to never making any money back on.

I still hang onto those shares (now converted to online) as there is a - IMHO very small - chance that something will come of Loxley and that's the only project that will materially affect the share price if successful.
Turkey Pinarova may give it a temporary boost, but that is all.
They don't have the money for Basur-4 (even if AME agree to a location) and the next confetti issue should be for Loxley - write off Turkey for the waste of time and money that some of us said it would be right from the start.
The Portland H2 project is just pie-in-the-sky and will never come to anything - at least not for UKOG.

Penguins,

Very unusual to have a WSG from a partner on the Rig - I'm struggling to think of the last time that happened other than when they requested it so they could train up some of their people.
Quite common to have witness / trainee WSG's from the National Oil Co though.

Hopefully UKOG have hired someone with local knowledge, otherwise they won't be able to differentiate the different Carbonate sequences with any certainty.

I'm still concerned that I haven't seen any sign of a mud logging unit, so the WSG's are going to be more limited than normal in what they can do w.r.t. wellsite evaluation.

I suspect that you are correct, AME being private means that they don't have to ramp everything to the Moon, but they will have to follow whatever standards the Turkish Authorities have set for reporting Well results.

Also something most people seem to forget - as they are the Operator, any announcement on the Well should be coming from AME, not UKOG.

At the very least, AME should be approving any UKOG RNS prior to issue.

Certainly any UKOG RNS will have to be taken with the usual huge pinch of salt, and closely compared with AME's announcement.

IBug - won't be a problem, even with that heap of junk the only oil that could get into the Well would be from the RT bearings and that's a heavy duty grease.

Couldn't even manage a decent P&D effort this morning - obviously the market was not caught by surprise by the spud, unlike what some were predicting..

And there we have it, the typical response from a member of the ramptastic crew;

Doesn't answer any question - tick
Accusation of not being a shareholder - tick
Cheap insult - I'll give him a semi-tick on that one
Accusation of wanting UKOG to fail - tick

For the record MM, I am invested in UKOG (which you'd know if you'd bothered to check my posting history properly) and I actually work in the oil industry - I run Drilling Rigs for a living - again, something you'd know if you'd looked properly in my posting history.

What I despise are serial rampers posting nonsense in a desperate attempt to suck in the unwary.

BTW, odd you complain about my posts, when you are up to around 30 on UKOG just this weekend?

What's the matter, given up trying to ramp up the TRP share price and so are looking to make a quick £ on a UKOG P&D tomorrow?

What's the matter MM?

No response to any of my points?

Or are they pointing out things that you'd rather be swept underneath the carpet and you'd rather repetitively post the same old rubbish on thread after thread, to try and drown out the awkward questions?

Typical Modus Operandi of the ramptastic crew, trying to trap the unwary PI into their P&D scheme.

MM,

It is the ramptastic crew (of which you are one) who are in desperation mode, trying anything to get the share price to move - something which numerous RNS's and announcements of the farm in on HH & the Pinarova-1 Well have conspicuously failed to do so far this year.

But your desperation is clear when you repeatedly cut and paste the same thing on numerous threads, trying to drown out any sensible posts with which don't fit your narrative.

It's also clear when you start claiming things like "The Market has been caught out" which is complete nonsense when the approximate spud of Pinarova was signalled in previous RNS's and tweets prior to the holiday.

And now you have added another phrase to try and desperately ramp the share for the unwary;

"This project is assessed to contain significantly greater discovered oil volumes than any of our UK projects and, if successful, offers potentially transformational growth for the Company".

UKOG have made no such announcement about Pinarova-1.

You are just trying to (wrongly) conflate an old RNS statement on UKOG's Turkey venture with the current Well.

Moneymunch,

You are showing your complete ignorance of the drilling process, and yet you are trying to bully others into silence?

How odd - but not unexpected from a member of the ramptastic crew.

In the photos, the horizontal pipe that is coming from the casing is the flowline.

There is no Divertor or divertor lines fitted to the Well.

Neither can they retro fit them on this Well, as there isn't enough room underneath the RT.

If anyone can post a photo of the location showing the Mud Logging Unit, then go right ahead - I'll be happy to see one there as it will at least give some modicum of safety.

But in the photos so far, I see no evidence of the sensors and data cables that accompany having a mud logging unit on site.

It does also bring into question how they are going to analyse the cuttings during drilling - or are they going to reach TD and just log the Well then?
Or just displace the Well to diesel and hope that creates enough underbalance for the Well to flow something?

Whichever way you look at it, this is a real Cowboy operation that would not be allowed to proceed in any other area with a decent Operator and Regulatory Authority.

Blurb from a sales brochure is not evidence of safe operating practices, or even competency and cutting & pasting that blurb as evidence shows your lack of knowledge, otherwise you'd have understood what I said in my original post.

The flowline sits ABOVE the Divertor and the Divertor itself sits on a spool, from which the divertor lines (normally 2 at 180 Deg to each other). Each divertor line has a remote controlled valve that is in the closed position during drilling.

The normal sequence of events in a flow when the divertor is in place is the Driller activates the divertor from his consol.

The Driller then picks up the drill string off bottom, turns the mud pumps to maximum and locks the string in place (in old parlance, 'chains the brake down').

While he is doing that, the divertor system will open up the valve to the downwind divertor line (pre selected prior to drilling) and then shut the divertor itself.

All the divertor is there for is to divert the flow away from the Rig Floor, to give the crew time to escape.

What is also concerning is not just the manner that they are drilling this Well, but that the Regulatory Authorities approved it - and they are responsible for approving the programmes of a couple of 6th Gen Drillships working in the Black Sea and the Med on some high pressure gas wells.

BTW, your assault on Ninetails is pathetic.

If you'd bothered to read any of his previous posts, you'd know he's a Mechanical Engineer who normally works on a Production Platform, not a Drilling Rig.

What you are doing is effectively criticising the person who looks after the engines for being unable to fly the plane himself.

Which is even more pathetic considering that, in this context, you've only seen a picture of a plane and have no idea how they

MM,

If it's so transformational, why have UKOG never published a structure map?

Or a pre-drill reserves estimate?

Or a CoS prediction?

Or even a Lith column?

Or acknowledged that Kezer-1 and the shot hole both had water?

Or that the Basur-1 well test was cut short after six hours because it started producing water?

Because it's a cheap 'Hail Mary' to try and save some face after the disaster that was Basur-3 and they don't have enough money in the kitty to drill Basur-4.

Pinarova-1 will at least find some oil shows, but the 'success' RNS will be very carefully worded to obfuscate the production of water.

Moneymunch,

If you are going to copy and paste something, at least copy and past something that backs up your assertion...

Hmmm, I obviously missed the latest incarnation of Rocky's Wife..

Since the imposition of the EPL;
Total have announced a 25% reduction in UKCS expenditure.
Shell have put 10% of their UKCS portfolio up for sale.
Harbour Energy have announced job cuts in ABZ.
BP & Enquest have stated that they will divert investment from the UKCS to the SEA area.
Equinor have put the FID for Rosebank on hold.

So yes, the EPL is a kick in the nuts for the UKCS, which was just beginning to get back on it's feet after the 2015 - 2020 oil price crash (when the UKCS lost c. 200,000 jobs out of a workforce of 450,000) and the effects of the pandemic.

Bear that in mind when you hear people wanting the oil price to 'return to normal' - the oil price was artificially low during the 2015 - 2020 period, feel even further during the pandemic.

The crippling effect of the EPL was obvious to all in the oil industry, who have seen it before when the first 'windfall profits tax' was enacted by the Tories in the early 1980's.

Even when a windfall profits tax was enacted on other industries (as in Gordon Browns ruinous budget of 1997), the effect was still the same.

Plummeting investment, job losses, fleeing of capital Overseas - all of which took a decade to recover from - and ultimately less revenue to the Treasury.

Look at the UKCS oil production from the 1980's & 1990's to get an idea of the effect.

Production initially kept rising until the mid-1980's as some of the large fields already in development came onstream, but then oil production fell by around 40% and didn't recover for another 10 years.

And that was when the UKCS was in a much better position than it is now.

We are now in the tertiary phase, where significant investment is needed to maintain current levels of production and all the large & medium sized fields have been developed.

That investment is going - and this time it's not going to come back. The UKCS was a high cost, low reward operating environment before - now it's much worse and the fiscal certainty that these sorts of projects need is gone.

The long term effect on our energy security, jobs and balance of payments will be huge.

And yet the Opposition parties say that we are not being taxed enough!

Remember, we pay:
30% Corporation tax (not 25%!)
10% Supplementary Charge (only the Banks pay SC - and they only pay about 4%)
35% EPL

Also remember that all the above a 'ring fenced', so cannot be offset against expenditure or losses elsewhere in the organisation.

It meant that during 2015 - 2020, while we were absolutely on our knees haemorrhaging jobs and cash, we were still paying 40% tax when everyone else was paying 19% Corporation Tax.

MM,

The pattern of your posts is clear for all to see - copy and paste nonsense as if you actually know something -when you don't.

It's fantasy to suggest that the Friday spud caught everyone out, as it as clear from their RNS's and twitter posts that spud would be around this date.

BTW, if you are going to throw cheap insults around, at least get the spelling right...

Moneymunch,

"I'm just batting the name calling".

Feeble excuse since you started it.

Typical member of the ramptastic crew - copy and paste the same thing multiple times as if it is actually relevant, miniscule knowledge of the oil industry, can't (or won't) answer questions, tries to bully other posters into silence and resorts to petty name calling when called out.

A Modus Operandi we are all to familiar with on this board unfortunately.

"Market caught on the hop"?

Dream on - it's been signalled for several weeks that Pinarova-1 would be spudded around this time.

I expect more of the ramptastic crew will be out tomorrow am when the RNS drops, trying to get a semi-decent P&D going.

Ninetails I am absolutely fuming.

There are some circumstances when you can drill top hole without a Divertor, but this absolutely is not one of them.

They are clearly using an old water well rig and the crew will have had no training on what to do if they do encounter any pressure, or oil for that matter.

Similarly, I'm willing to bet an arm, leg, shoulder and reproductive organs that they've no training on H2S either.

Carbonates and H2S go hand in hand throughout the Middle East.

UKOG like to (misleadingly) imply that this area is the same as Kurdistan.
Wells in Kurdistan have anything up to 15% H2S.

Bear in mind that anything over 1,000ppm H2S is fatal without immediate rescue, as it paralyses the breathing system after just one breath.

The other thing that I don't see in the photos is a mud logging unit, so the normal safety back up that they provide is missing.

Cowboy operation doesn't even come close to describing this.

OMFG, not only are you allowing them to use a heap of junk that would not be allowed anywhere near any rig location in the UK (or most other Countries for that matter), they are also not using a Divertor!

The surface casing is open at the top, so if they encounter any pressure whatsoever, they have no way of diverting the flow away from the rig floor to a pit.

This is in an area which it is known that Hydrocarbons can be found very close to surface (which is why you are drilling there in the first place) and so drilling without a Divertor is an utterly unacceptable operating practice.

I repeat, THIS IS AN UTTERLY UNACCEPTABLE OPERATING PRACTICE, UKOG!

And where is the returns line going to?

It's obviously not going to a conventional circulating system and looks like it's all being dumped into a pit, which I'm guessing that they'll just recirculate what fluid they can get out of it and add water as required.

That means that if they do find any oil during drilling, it will likely be recirculated and putting any oil through an HP pump that isn't designed for it (and what ever piece of shyte that they are using won't be) is a seriously, seriously bad idea.

I cannot express my real feelings, as they would no doubt get me tossed off LSE by Admin.

UKOG, you should hang your heads in shame - but we already know that you have none.