Member Info for ZYX098

Europe and indeed the World got lucky that it was a relatively mild Winter in Europe and Asia.

The swings downwards in oil and gas prices has been dramatic - so dramatic that prices are now comfortably below what they were several months prior to the invasion of Ukraine. (Of course, we are still paying the 35% EPL on top of the 30% RFCT and 10% SC.)

But that reduction won't continue as China carries on opening up after the Covid shut down and I haven't seen any credible oil price forecast that doesn't have it getting back up to around the $100/bbl mark before the end of the year.

Europe should concentrate on building it's gas reserves back up as soon as possible, to be ready for next Winter.

Of course, none of this has any real bearing on a Company that produces 60 BOPD and flares off what little gas it produces...

There's a few ramptastic people who must be hurting in their nether regions this morning...

I wonder if SS is busy calling his mates to buy a few shares here and there, to try and keep the 'bid' above 0.059p?

Would be a real kick in the nuts if it did get to 0.059p, and certainly give the lie to the ramptastic crowds "support at this level" and "re-rating due soon".

IBug,

We've known for months that Ells maths skills are distinctly lacking.

IGas have had plenty of opportunity to farm into Loxley - and haven't.

This includes periods when gas prices have been higher and lower than currently, both of which have been touted by the ramptastic crowd as good reasons to expect a farm-in announcement "soon".

The best that UKOG could possibly hope for is a bottom hole contribution by IGas - but again, they have had plenty of opportunity to do so and have not.

Waynesmith,

No, about 5 months at best.

Actually, probably much less, because it quotes revenue at "£287,000, with net earnings after costs of £136,000".

Note it says 'costs', which most Companies would not normally lump taxes under.....

Ocelot,

I'd be fascinated to know why the recent drop in the price of natural gas may facilitate any discussions that may be ongoing w.r.t. the Loxley farm out....

What more do I want Ells?

I want to know what 'positive Loxley news soon' you are referring to.

I want to know which Annual Report you are reading, as the UKOG Annual Rpeorts show substantial losses for the last few years.

I want to know why Pinarova-1 will move the share price, when we already know from Kezer-1 and the shot hole that it will predominantly find water.

ART - the second part of my answer was actually for Stockraiser.

From the photos, they've already installed the Conductor, and given the potential shallow depth at which hydrocarbons could be encountered, I suspect they will likely put a Divertor on (can't shut in at that depth, which is what a BOP does, so use a Divertor to divert any flow away from the Rig so the crew can 'evacuate'...) before the Rig gets there and just drill to TD.

That would tie-in with using a mining rig, which don't run casing or use BOP's / Divertors in the holes that they drill.

If they put in a surface casing, the final hole size would likely be too small for conventional tools, which creates problems further down the line with any potential completion as well. Besides, with seeps being so shallow, where to set the surface casing so it would be of benefit would be problematical.

Given their forecasted cost, they won't be using MWD/LWD tools, but should (emphasis on the should!) be using mud logging.

On a normal Well, you are correct that they would then run W/Line logs to evaluate the formation.

However, here given the shallow depth and that any production is likely through fractures (which is how the fluids are seeping up close to surface), I suspect they may not run any logs at all.

Instead, I think they'll run Open Hole DST's using a dual packer testing assembly - this saves time and money on running & cementing casing and also means that the casing cement job won't mess up any potential production from fractures.

The reason why I think they've gone down the ultra-cheap road is that the forecast well cost has been reduced from the original $660k to $400k at a time when the drilling industry is seeing substantial price rises in manpower, equipment and consumables.

WRT duration, mining rigs are sloooooowwwwww. Yes, a conventional rig should take 7-10 days to reach TD, but I don't think they are going that route.

ART123,

The RNS states; "Drilling to a total depth of around 500-550m to directly follow site completion, currently expected around end March to early April 2023. Dependent on outcomes, expected drilling campaign duration up to 28 days."

It doesn't say tested and completed.

Stockraiser: Modern techniques mean that you don't even see the core when it comes to surface. The inner barrel is fibre glass and it's cut into 1 - 2m lengths and the ends sealed. This is done to preserve the fluids in the core, otherwise they will dry out during transport. You can get an idea by examining the ends of each cut sections, and that's it.

However, for the Well costs they are quoting, if they are continuously coring, it will be old school.
This is where the core is laid out as it gets to surface.
In that case you can do a superficial analysis of rock type, note any faults or fractures that are present and any fluids that may be seeping out of the core.

The latter is normally a bad sign, as if fluids are still seeping out when it's recovered, it means that the permeability is low. On the other hand, this is so shallow, it might give an idea of what's there.

Any other analysis needs the core to be sent to a core lab - which I seriously doubt that UKOG will be doing here.

Looking at the pad size and layout, plus the estimated 28 days to reach a TD of only c. 550m, I don't think they are even using a drilling rig in the oil industry meaning of the phrase.

I suspect they will be using a mining rig, which are even smaller and normally operate in a 'continuous coring' mode.

No PBoo, Adrian isn't reported due to a "cancel culture to get rid of information".

He is reported because of his habit of gratuitously insulting other posters.

Besides, his posts on LSE don't contain any useful information - merely mindless ramping with no logic or attention to actual facts.

Vernonya,

I don't know where you get your statistics from, but historically only around 1 in 10 Exploration Wells finds commercial quantities of oil.

I am confident that an RNS will be issued, proclaiming that Pinarova-1 has 'found' oil.

It will highlight the oil production on test, while minimising the water production.
Remember, UKOG failed to acknowledge that HH was producing water for many, many months.

The RNS will highlight the initial flow rate, while using obfuscation to hide the precipitous drop in the flow rate over a short period of time. Look for the statement to end along the lines of "flowed XX bbls of fluid (fluid, not oil...) during the test"
Remember the RNS's on HH testing? Always announced the initial high flow rate and they had to be read very carefully to see how quickly the flow rate was dropping during the test.

Pinarova-1 WILL produce water.

We already have the evidence from Kezer-1 and the seismic shot hole, both of which are on the structure and the majority of the fluid that both produced was water.

But don't expect UKOG to acknowledge that - their last RNS didn't even mention Kezer-1 although it's closer to the Pinarova-1 location - while they still call Basur-1 an oil discovery even though the only DST was cut short after six hours because it started producing water.

An oil seep that is actually ON the structure is bad news, as anyone with a modicum of understanding of how traps work will tell you. It means that the trap has been breached and that it is 'seeping' rather than 'flowing' means that there is no pressure there.

And as we get closer and closer to 'good' news, the usual crowd of suspects begin to come out of the woodwork with their subtle and not-so-subtle attempts at ramping.

Some under their original monikers, some (including Rocky's Wife and The Expert) under new ones.

Be careful of their predictions and protestations, as so far they have almost a 100% rate of being wrong.

You can make money on this share, but only by catching the P&D's at the right time.

Look for the next one when the very, very carefully worded RNS is issued proclaiming that Pinarova-1 has 'found' oil.

It will highlight the oil production on test, while minimising the water production.
Remember, UKOG failed to acknowledge that HH was producing water for many, many months.

The RNS will highlight the initial flow rate, while using obfuscation to hide the precipitous drop in the flow rate over a short period of time.
Remember the RNS's on HH testing? Always announced the initial high flow rate and they had to be read very carefully to see how quickly the flow rate was dropping during the test.

Pinarova-1 WILL produce water.

We already have the evidence from Kezer-1 and the seismic shot hole, both of which are on the structure and the majority of the fluid that both produced was water.

But don't expect UKOG to acknowledge that - their last RNS didn't even mention Kezer-1 although it's closer to the Pinarova-1 location - while they still call Basur-1 an oil discovery even though the only DST was cut short after six hours because it started producing water.

BTW, an oil seep that is actually ON the structure is bad news, as anyone with a modicum of understanding of how traps work will tell you. It means that the trap has been breached.....

Thou shalt not question his great acolytes, Rocky's Wife and the Expert.

For they have been self-anointed as his disciples, and will be sore upset if you have the temerity to question their vision for UKOG greatness.

Especially on a Friday afternoon after a few pints.

Or Thursday, if he has too many and forgets which day of the week it is...

Thou shalt not bring those daemons of 'facts' and 'logic' to thyne posts, for they are not appreciated or understood.

Neither shall ye dare to bring attention to their past mistaken prophecies, for to do so will bring down their almighty wrath in great torrents of abuse.

Complete with spelling mistakes and random use of block capitals.

Be thou kind to his prophet the Cat, for he is indeed gentle in his postings and does not threaten to smite his enemies.

His continued optimism, in the face of such overwhelming evidence of the past failings of his God, is to be admired, and will surely earn him a position on the right hand of the Salmon slacked one when he retires.

There are others, such as 2p/5p and 58, who occasionally make their presence known.

They can be safely ignored, for they are truly not worth the effort and have no power in this realm of Man.

They are talking about 28 days to drill down to c. 550m, so they must be using a small mining Rig.

Those normally operate on a 'continuous coring' basis, so will be interesting to see what they get.

Of course, apart from neglecting to mention Kezer-1, they still haven't acknowledged that the Basur-1 test was cut short after six hours because it started flowing water...

Is it possible that UKOG are actually going to do something in the time frame that they said they would??

O.K., it's a revised time frame, as originally they said they'd do Pinarova-1 in Q1 - but I suppose by the end of April is close enough by their past standards...

They are doing something at HH?

Got nothing else to do tomorrow, so I'll nip down and have a look myself....

Just out of curiosity, how much does it cost to lodge (post?) an RNS?

There have been 14 RNS's issued since the 11th January.

In that time, the UKOG share price has gone from 0.064p to 0.066p this morning.

A whopping 0.002p increase..

So have the RNS's actually been cost effective?

Biggest win in terms of reducing CO2 emissions would be to put more R&D into designing and retro-fitting a CCUS system for the emissions from coal fired power stations.

There are a couple of systems in operation, but they are in the experimental stages at the moment.

There are around 2,000 in operation world wide;
https://www.statista.com/statistics/859266/number-of-coal-power-plants-by-country/

India and China continue to build more at the rate of one every five weeks or so, and coal consumption hit a record of 8 Billion tons last year.

The chances of these plants being replaced by renewables (or even gas fired plants) any time soon is zero.

Indeed, Germany is in the process of expanding a Lignite mine - the dirtiest fossil fuel that there is.

UVDL wants to capture and store 300 million tons annually.

To put that in perspective, in 2020, Germany pumped an estimated 637 Million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. China, an estimated 11,680 Million tons. The UK managed 314 Million tons.

Veroyna - I'm not aware of anyone injecting H2 into old oil wells - can you provide a link please?

Injection of CO2 has been done for tertiary oil recovery in some fields for decades, where that has been excess CO2 available from local industry.

It's also been done on the Norwegian Sleipner field since 1996, although for different reasons.
https://www.ice.org.uk/engineering-resources/case-studies/sleipner-carbon-capture-and-storage-project/

And yet you still felt the need to post anyway....