Member Info for ZYX098

It may well be a 'game changer' for the UK, but there is precisely zero chance of any institutional investor (or HM Govt) letting UKOG anywhere near this project.

UKOG management team has a track record of spectacular failure, plus an equally long established track record of issuing RNS's which are - putting it politely - somewhat misleading.

Ninetails,

They are a bit like someone who has been taken in by the Nigerian Prince scam several times, but are convinced that this time it will actually work out.

After all, they are being 'supported' by The Good Law Project and Leigh Day - neither of which are paragons of virtue when it comes to having any moral standards or scruples with respect to exploiting the British Legal System for their own ends.

And they are so blinded by the BS that they don't realise that their house prices won't be affected one bit by any work on Loxley.

Frequent chaos caused by drunken wedding parties on the other hand....

Just out of curiosity, am I green box to you Boovie?

Thanks IBug - thought I'd seen it somewhere.

Even so, they'll have to get a move on w.r.t. fulfilling the planning conditions and getting the site constructed.

Also with the well tangibles (Wellhead & Casing) as unless they already have them in stock, lead times are 40+ weeks.

They'll have to put their hands on a Rig soon too, Anglo American are taking up what little capacity the UK rig market has on the Potash project in Yorkshire.

This sort of stuff is why people like me who actually work in the industry are very careful about what we post on social media.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-66391947

In the past we've had our houses daubed with paint, bleach or brake fluid poured over our cars, been stalked on social media in addition to the more public demonstrations at Well sites.

I'd really like to see these idiots do the same at the homes of the Russian, Chinese and Indian Premiers - see how they get treated there instead of the kid glove approach we use here.

IBug,

Didn't they already get an extension until June 2024 on the spud date?

At this stage, the definition of the date also becomes important - whether it's "spud by" or "reach TD and evaluate by". That will be in the details of the agreement with the NSTA.

Billy,

Yes, it's the victory, award of costs and subsequent refusal to allow an appeal that really count.

But UKOG should go back to get more costs, as there is no way that they spent just £3k on legal fees.

As for a civil claim - no chance. The only possibility they could have had for that route is if the Court Case had been dismissed as being 'frivolous' or 'vexatious', which the Court didn't do.

You did better than me. Held the maximum amount allowable for eight years in the 2000's.

Grand total winnings in those 8 yrs - £50

Adrian,

Why keep pretending that the Court Case is delaying progress at HH?

In UKOG's own words;

RNS on 15th Aug 2022

Following the Environment Agency's full Horse Hill production consent in May this year, a new Unico pump has recently been installed in the HH-1 oil producer. The prior pump is being refurbished as an additional spare. Preparatory work towards converting HH-2z into a produced saline water reinjector continues.

RNS on 27th Feb 2023;

UK Oil & Gas PLC (London AIM: UKOG) is pleased to announce that, as a necessary precursor to its planned Horse Hill-2z ("HH-2z") Portland formation water reinjection project, the Company has now installed three, shallow, groundwater monitoring boreholes at its 85.635% owned producing oil field

So the Court Case (which your beloved Sara will loose) is not holding up UKOG in any way.

Simples.

Nobody should be surprised at this, as DL has history.

I've posted this snippet from his Wiki entry several times, but they didn't learn;

Corporate Governance Related Criticisms

He has been accused of frequently "promoting a company, pushing up the (price of its) shares, then raising cash by placing new shares — and (thus) diluting the holdings of the early investors",[15] described as "a familiar tale with most companies he promotes".[16] His defence has been that "You can’t build a business on bottle tops.".[17] Furthermore, he has argued that it's not accurate to claim that "all his ventures have turned sour".[18] Although finance commentators have noted that most of the "hundreds" of companies he has been involved in, and "stock promoted" for, have failed to generate any successful shareholder returns.[19]

In 2009 he was one of a group of claimants, claiming that he had been libelled when an investment publication in South Africa had described the group of executives of one of Lenigas' ventures as "cynically and greedily indulged in self-enrichment at the expense of, and contrary to the interests of, shareholders."[20] The High Court of Justice of the United Kingdom rejected Lenigas', and the other claimants' libel claim, and found in favour of the publisher.[21]

No, he's not.

There is no reason for UKOG not to continue with the HH-2 conversion work.

Their own RNS's state that work continues on the surface equipment and that they also drilled the three water monitoring wells.

Using the Court Case as a reason is nonsense and just the Ramptastic crew clucthing at straws.

See, there you go again Ells, twisting my words.

I never said the Company doesn't know what it's talking about w.r.t. the CPR - I said YOU don't understand what the CPR actually means.

But the market did, which is why the share price didn't budge (and has since dropped) and UKOG haven't been able to find someone to farm in.

UKOG first need to give them something to ramp with.....

UKOG announced the tie-in with CeraPhi to look at installing Geothermal at HH a considerable period of time ago.

Looking at CeraPhi's website, they use a downhole heat exchanger in conjunction with a closed loop system. i.e. cool fluid is pumped down the tubing, through the heat exchanger and the warm fluid comes back up the Tubing / Casing annulus with the extra heat being extracted (through a Stirling engine??) at surface before the fluid is pumped back down the hole again.

HH has low grade Geothermal (just not that hot for direct electrical power generation - only just about suitable for greenhouse heating), but also HH now has no wellbore available to run the heat exchanger in.

Given that UKOG now talk about BB for Geothermal, my guess is that for HH it originally was a back up plan in case they didn't get permission to convert HH-2 into a water injector.

BB doesn't have high grade Geothermal either, so it would only be for district or greenhouse heating.

But BB is currently in a bit of a mess, as the 7" shoe had been drilled out, has several hundred feet of open perforations and a leaking ECP at around 2,475' TVD.

So before CeraPhi can do their thing, UKOG will have to P&A the rest of the Well to OGUK Standards.

This will not be easy, as they'll have to seal off the bottom of the 7" (should be easy enough to do, but time consuming to prove that it has been successfully sealed), seal off all the perforations (not so easy due to the length and separation of the perfs, very time consuming to prove that each set of perfs has been sealed) and cure the ECP leak (should be able to easily do with something like a Bismuth plug).

The leaking ECP will reduce the depth to which the heat exchanger could be run (i.e. less heat available as it's shallower), as the NTSA (and CeraPhi) will insist on the ECP casing leak being cured before they will run the heat exchanger assembly.

I'm presuming here that they can do all this internally and don't have to 'restore the cap rock' outside the casing.

But they did have issues with the cement job, so they may have to - in which case they are into a program of milling the 7" out - which will need additional surface and downhole equipment and will rule out doing the W/O with a crane and/or coiled tubing unit.

So UKOG will have to find the cash to do this work before they can run the heat exchanger assembly.

It will be interesting to see how they can get funding for this, as theoretically they should be able to show a potential lender that the cash flow from this (which will not be subject to the same onerous tax regime as O&G production) should pay for this work program in a few years (5? 10? 15?).

The remainder of the life of the installation (no reason why it shouldn't last for 30 - 40 years) should ultimately generate enough cash to pay for the final P&A of the Well.

So presuming they find a buyer for the heat, it should be ultimately cash +ve for UKOG, but needs funding firs

According to the Sage;

"Up to £124 million recoverable at Loxley.

That licence itself holds value, millions in fact. Before any drilling."

So clearly he still doesn't understand the numerous red flags in the CPR, or the difference between 2C and 2P reserves.

And Loxley has zero 2P reserves.

He also glosses over that the market has already spoken on the value of Loxley.

When the CPR was issued, the Market's reaction was 'meh' - because the market did see the red flags and does understand the difference between 2C and 2P reserves.

Claiming that UKOG were holding back until after the Court Case is rubbish.

After all, UKOG themselves announced that they were proceeding with the 'pre-planned Farm Out' well over a year ago.

So Adrian is still being Adrian, while denying he's Adrian.

Ells / JR / G-M, still acting like he's the sage of the boards.

But consider his spectacular record of failure;

Says UKOG is about to fly and buys in at 0.1p, just hours before the RNS about the Pin-1 swab test failure drops.

Says the share will fly when the Loxley Court Case result is announced.

Castigates those who say the result is already reflected in the share price, as UKOG are odds on to win.

Market reaction – “Meh”.

Says the Oil price is on the rise (twice). The next day, the oil price drops – both times..

Says RR will fall to 50p from 94p. It climbs to 150p.

Reiterates that RR will drop to 50p. The next day RR climbs 21% to 185p.

That UKOG buy at 0.1p must be hurting, although nowhere near as much as his RR 50p short.

But don’t mention the RR short – it looks like he’s really sensitive about it…..

Petro Matad:

TD the Velociraptor Well.

2 days later, issue an RNS stating it's a dry hole. E-Logs run and interpreted. Well developed target sands but water wet and so are moving on.

UKOG:

2 months after saying need bigger guns for Pin-1.

Results of the specialist log interpretation:

(Silence...)

Results of the geochem analysis:

(Leaves rustling...)

Sourcing the 7" Perf Guns:

(Tumble weed rolls by...)

Tonight is the 35th anniversary of the Piper Alpha disaster, the North Sea Production Platform where 167 men (including two rescuers) lost their lives in the worst offshore oil disaster in history.

Just 61 survived - some by jumping over 50m from the Helideck into the sea.

I happened to be offshore for a trip on a Jack Up in the Southern North Sea that night, and can remember the growing dread and horror of us all onboard as the scale of the disaster quickly unfolded.

Showing what a tight knit community the oilfield was (and still is), on that Rig there was nobody who didn't loose a friend on Piper Alpha.

This link is to a documentary that was later broadcast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p019bt95/ad/piper-alpha-fire-in-the-night

The Cullen Enquiry into the disaster produced a step change in safety offshore, by introducing the safety case legislation which was enshrined in regulations to make the North Sea the safest oilfield in the World to work in - standards, policies and procedures which have been adopted in many areas in recognition that they are second to none.

Please take a moment to remember those who have lost their lives in the search for, and production of, Oil & Gas.

Thank You.

Telli,

The service provider would have done a pre-job analysis of the perforating run.

For this they would have used data such as the mud type the guns would be run in (probably water), the casing wall thickness & grade of steel used, the strength of the cement used in cementing the 9 5/8" casing in place and an estimate of the hole size (drilled was 12 1/4", actual likely a bit larger).

From this, they can then estimate the energy left in the shot when it reached the formation.

Using local data on the formation properties (they couldn't use actual data, as no logs were run), they can then work out how far into the formation the shot would have gone and the tunnel diameter that would be produced.

The results would be used to determine the most optimum charge spacing (i.e. number of shots per foot) and gun centralisation inside the casing.

The diagram in the link below gives a better visual.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-muUZcNCuK38/UsVa75_AlaI/AAAAAAAAA_U/HAcdNcDxC68/s1600/6.jpg

Using the smaller charges that can be fitted in the 4 5/8" gun is not optimal in the 9 5/8" casing, but by eccentrically centralising the gun so it is hard up against the casing, they can maximise the formation penetration by those shaped charges closest to the casing.

In those circumstances, normally all the charges would have been in a vertical line, but the photo of the gun had a spiral pattern. So the ones opposite that are fired into the fluid in the hole and have to travel a couple of inches through it before the copper slug hits the casing wall so are unlikely to have fully penetrated the casing.

However, the charges up against the 9 5/8" casing would certainly have perforated the casing itself, and should have gone some distance into the formation.

All they can tell from analysis of the test data is that after the guns were fired, no formation fluid flowed into the Well.

UKOG have chosen to interpret that as evidence that the charges did not penetrate the formation.

For this to be the case, either the hole must be significantly larger than estimated (unlikely, as they would get an effective calliper from when cement returned to surface during the 9 5/8" cement job) or the perforation tunnels were blocked by perforation debris (the remains of the copper slug and rock crushed during the perforation).

This is possible, but there are ways to get that out after the gun is recovered back to surface.

An alternative explanation is that the perforating guns worked as advertised and penetrated the formation, but there was simply nothing there to flow.

I know which my money is on...

BTW, why UKOG chose to reference the CCL log in their RNS, I have no idea - it has nothing to do with whether or not the run was a success.