RE: Trading / Flipping2 Nov 2023 10:34
The P&D's used to be fairly predictable around the timing of specific events, but that's not the case anymore.
One might be manufactured around the SC decision, but nobody knows when the judgement will be issued, so nothing concrete for the ramptastic crew to plan around. Besides, pretty much everyone and his Dog is sure that the SC will find in UKOG's favour, so the result is already built into the SP.
HH-2 conversion into water injector. The saving is £250k a year. Not much, but not to be discarded either. However, the lack of progress by UKOG in actually performing it is a concern, considering their RNS's that they'd competed the water table monitoring wells and other surface preparation. And no, UKOG's own RHS's show that the SC Case is not a reason for the delay.
My guess (and it's a guess) is they can't do it with a Crane and need a W/O Rig, but the suitable Rigs are all tied up by Anglo American on their Potash project until at least Jan / Feb next year. The lack of clarity on timing means that the opportunity for the ramptastic crew to manufacture a P&D is limited.
Loxley farm-in. Still no sign of the 'pre-planned' farm in and there are no obvious candidates raising their head above the parapet - and why would they after the disastrous CPR?
Besides, any announcement of a farm-in would lead to a spike in the SP, not really suitable for a P&D. To actually do the work programme, UKOG will need to raise more cash and that's not going to happen any time soon. Again, lack of clarity of timing is an issue for those wishing to manufacture a P&D.
PPP Farm in on HH. Aside from the problems that PPP are facing, the fact that ALBA haven't agreed to the farm in - in my opinion - indicates that they don't want DL involved in HH again after the mess he left last time and what he did to Regency Mines (now Corcel). There might be a spike if the farm-in is finally agreed, but they are (unsurprisingly) already behind their advertised schedule for the 3D Seismic. Again, lack of clarity on timing means no real chance to manufacture a P&D.
Turkey. Some are saying that the onset of Winter might be used as an excuse to delay the work. There is nothing in the work program that would be held up because of Winter conditions, so any announcement of that causing delay is just that - an excuse, not a reason.
As for the idea that there is anything remotely commercial to be found in Pin-1 which will cause an increase in the SP - laughable.
Again, lack of clarity on timing will make it difficult to manufacture a P&D on any RNS of the test program beginning.
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