The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
that 250k buy on friday - yes thats a quarter of a million pounds purchase, has really put the cat amongst the pigeons....its got certain people into a frenzy, im thinking theres going to be more similar sized purchases this week...
very good post.... forgive me , but i have reposted with some paragraph breaks:)
Back from my walk (in the sunshine!) to a rammed board. All opinions welcome and I certainly don’t mind the comments that we should always retain a sense of caution. To date my ‘waffle’ has made me a ‘paper millionaire’ and if you review my posts over the years I’ve adjusted my expectations as the news has ebbed and flowed. However, Covid has totally changed the SAR dynamic and my expectation at the outset(pre Covid) was nearer 20-30p rather than £1-3(post Covid). Hence my revaluation.
We now have data on 1801 from the POC against Covid in addition to all the data behind toxicity. There is also plenty of data on 737. To address one of the comments very early today I don’t think Dilly is just sitting on 737. You don’t recruit additional staff along the lines he has done without a strategy in mind. If, as I suspect, he’s waiting on something then we’ll find out in due course. It’s far from unusual for Biotechs to work with big names under NDA for years before releasing details.
Patience. Overall my ‘waffle’ revealed (to me at least) that there’s plenty of reason to now re-rate the upside. The downside is a no-brainer but knowing when to take profit is not so easy without quantifying the options. Whereas previously I would have accepted 30p as a good price I’ve revised my ceilings. If we get into Agile, 737 goes live and 1801 goes into CTA against a significant indication then I’ll stick around for more than a pound! Not advice, just opinion and I’m aware of the risk – upside and downside.
So why haven’t we done a deal and been able to sell the company for a large fortune? The BoD have been quite open about the industry benchmarks for the size of deal they want. However, that was before Covid and Covid has changed the business model. Would you sell your company for 30p a share if suddenly it could be worth £1 a share if you waited just a little longer? Why as a shareholder would I accept 30p if within 6 months it could be worth £1? Especially as the Covid angle represents very little risk – no Agile or Agile fails and we still go into CTA for 1801 followed by 1802(essentially where we were pre Covid). Patience.
Meanwhile it’s time for refreshment and the bar downstairs has 160 gins to choose from. Now who would have thought a few years ago that Gin could have taken on such a new dynamic….. PS Thanks for all the ‘recommends’ and comments. Makes getting up at 6.30 this morning all the more rewarding. Sorry Krone, my model can't cope with the Veterinary angle!
i would speculate that you first have to first apply to get into Agile- whic was dependent upon us firstly carrying out the study first..
and/or there may be other parties on the side who are also in discussions with SAR, who may want to go down a different route
goes out to Sly and her crew
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU&ab_channel=YazzVEVO
01-Jul-21 08:03:52 6.999 1,114,345 Buy* 6.40 6.50 77.99k
01-Jul-21 08:56:26 7.00 500,000 Buy* 6.40 6.60 35.00k
01-Jul-21 09:03:12 6.97 1,000,000 Buy* 6.40 6.50 69.70k
01-Jul-21 09:05:46 6.85 722,765 Buy* 6.50 6.60 49.51k
01-Jul-21 09:06:50 6.825 780,000 Buy* 6.50 6.60 53.24k
01-Jul-2 17:08:29 6.65 1,159,698 Buy*6.50 6.80 77.12k
think its sly!
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back to todays RNS
i reckon we are 2 weeks behind of what is actually going on..
we might see the next RNS to be agile related this month
the Goverment and the world do not have the luxury of time to be faffing about..
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