Member Info for ZippyFrood

Can any of the seasoned (ex) traders on the board give a view on the likelihood of a hedge with only a floor and no ceiling? n Can such a position exist? Assume it would attract a huge fee?

Which is incredibly ironic as both BP and Shell pushed for the EPL/WFT knowing full well the impact on them would be minimal to zero.

What it would give them is great ESG brownie points with the various pension fund investors, ensuring that there would be no sell-off by these funds. Their cries of "we want to pay more tax" plus investing a little in renewable energy makes them fully "greenwashed".

Meanwhile in the real UKCS E&P world, all the indies are being tax to oblivion thanks to Loonie and van Beurden, but it's fine as they can talk about their good to society. Most aren't even making the pre-requisite "windfall profits" due to hedging.

Where are the windfall profits on the banks and traders who buy these hedged products?

I'd like to see how many people are employed at those two in the UKCS, versus all the indies and other operators alone. How many jobs are now at risk both at other operators and service companies due to the big mouths at Shell and BP?

AB will hopefully pull his usual rabbit(s) out of the hat though....

Anyone with a footprint larger than UKCS will divert capital away and look to wind down here.

Anyone UK only will possibly make the most of the allowances in the hope a profit will be allowed from 2028 onwards?

Where is the tech and banking windfall taxes? Tories are a joke now. In fact, all the political parties are joke. Maybe softening us up for the NWO....

****ing shambles.

Goodbye energy security.

One of the problems with the EPL is what is the actual sales price of the oil and gas?

Harbour for example; YTD realised gas price of £0.80/therm. Market average £2.00/therm. Sold lower due to hedging covenants in their financing. Surely whomever is benefitting from those hedges and then selling at market rate is making the "windfall profit" here?? But Whitehall is so economically illiterate, let's clobber all of them with this fantasy 65%-75% rate.

What's our realised Brent sales price? I can't remember but with the hedging is it even exceeding $80 average? Is $80 really a windfall level?

What a complete ****show.

Onedb, I think you're being a bit disingenuous here.

I'm certainly not advocating a "tax the rich" mentality. Working as a consultant, it pains me to see how much of my CT and dividend tax contributions are spaffed on rubbish. "Last chance to save the NHS" comes to mind. I suspect Thursday's prospective ****show will only increase my burden and probably everyone on this board's burden. No one is wanting that. We'll all deal with it differently as is within our means, but in many cases I suspect it will lead to reduced tax take.

I also appreciate tax treaties and certainly do not advocate double taxation.

What does irk me is when massively wealthy people domicile themselves in low/zero taxation jurisdictions. It doesn't benefit society. The UK tax code should be vastly simplified to ensure this type of situation cannot arise. If someone has had the benefit of the UK and the stability of it, then they should pay in to the system.
Also the relative tax rates paid by banks and tech companies is a shambles. A massive loophole that needs tidied up. Public bail outs or massive loop holes or both. Whereas UKCS get royally and repeatedly ****ed over.

I don't think how much tax someone pays is the only measure of their worth to society. That's a very short sighted view. It's one important element, but heartily ignores the value people bring to local communities through their time and dedication, which are arguably worth more, especially at a local level. What about people who volunteer a lot? They are usually the lynchpin of their communities.

Non-dom is also a joke.

"UK citizens whose main residence is outwith the UK".

Therefore, they are not UK citizens and should not enjoy the associated privileges and protections of being a UK citizen.

See how they squeal.

I've written to my MP a number of times recently regarding a number of issues, including non-dom. I have had zero responses. Pathetic. What a pointless charade the UK political system is.

You'd think a single well flexible tieback to Kraken FPSO to both Bently and Bressay could be a good start? Could possibly get 5kbopd with a P/WI pair at each location?

Evaluate, de-risk and generate a bit of cash before actually committing to £?B upgrading EP and committing to large scale SURF?

I think STG were effectively cheap, cheerful and reliable. What's complex about lighting a big fire under a large pressure vessel? Oh, apart from the 500c steam kicking about at however many hundred or thousand psi...

I think being so isolated from other infrastructure, they were a long way away from any gas import, so probably made sense to bring in diesel to burn.

No way they would get that FID approved today.

Plus, it's a very specialist area, I think there are nine people qualified to maintain them globally. Used to be ten until Fred Dibnah popped off......

Hmmmm, another good question.

I'm going to say one of them was commissioned.

Do you recall was it October 2015 that first oil was finally achieved?
By August 2016, the peak was hit, just under 18k according to the NSTA; https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-centre/nsta-open-data/production/
I think there's no way the power requirements would have been available to run the ESPs and injection system and production system without at least one boiler - they were 20MW each I think? Thermal output was 60MW-ish, pretty inefficient. Plus you had the safety issues of super heated, pressurised steam buzzing round.

Probably £50m to change out for GTs? Maybe more? They'd probably need to spend a good couple of hundred million to amend the topsides for heavy oil, but isn't the Rosebank FPSO contract about $1B of mods? Plus EQ own the vessel, so no payment of several hundred thousand dollars a day to add to OPEX. Hopefully since there is the work ongoing on BB already, a good detailed study of the FPSO is ongoing to ascertain any life extension work (Hull, moorings etc) and then what topside mods are required?

Could end up making the development of BB very attractive.

ENQ farm out 45% say and that partner pays some enhanced share of SURF and drilling costs and we do the facilities, then share OPEX.

Just avoid Blohm and Voss this time please!!
Obviously the next issue would yard capacity.......

It's a good question - from my work recently on a large FPSO project, rates are only going up up up and availability going down down down.

It would be amazing if we had a large development that needed a second FPSO to link in to Kraken.....

The only concern is the boilers . At the time there was a BAT assessment (I think Best Available Technique) on boilers for the power supply. Would they pass the Climate Change Checkpoint of any new field FID/ES? Unlikely if they are burning huge quantities of diesel or crude (eeeek).

May have revisit vessel power - the swivel/turret remains the difficult part of electrification on FPSOs.

I think the optimism about the ENQ furutre makes the current SP all the more depressing.

I suppose we're still held back by the ghosts of the past i.e. debt and the Alma Galia shambles.

Kraken and the recent re finance shows these should not hold us back any more.

We've got all the upside of the big heavy oil fields. Someone had said (possibly Romaron) that they are the (near) future for transport, which is great - Diesel, MGO, Jet A-1 etc - they're not being replaced in the way electric cars are taking over.

What would he weight of a battery system for a bulk freighter be?! I assume the physics and material science don't align with reality at present. Though will be interesting to see how Musk's Semi (oo-er) performs in the wild.

Surely a comparative valuation for ENQ would be over £1/share?

UKBBBBBB,

Good point on the update. Fingers crossed for good production news and possibly some CAPEX plans revealed?

Hosie will continue to look like a buffoon as the shares sit above his target and on an upward trajectory (C. Hunt pending). Maybe he'll quietly want to play catch-up with Cazenove and Canaccord? Suspect he may move the needle slightly to low 30s if at all and a neutral rating?

All assuming Jeremy cHunt doesn’t take a big dump on the UKCS. The EPL is already akin to a 70s Labour style tax. Either tax everyone the same or don’t bother.

Where are the 65% CT rates for banks and tech?

Linda Cook will sort him out I hope

Pelle,

Text from the article;

Ithaca Energy, one of the North Sea’s largest producers, could command a market valuation of up to £3.1 billion when it trades publicly next week.

The price range for its initial public offering (IPO) has been marketed at a range of 250p – 310 pence, under terms seen by EV, equating to a valuation range of $2.9bn – $3.6bn (£3.1bn).

The firm is seeking to raise as much as £310m through the IPO – London’s second-largest this year after Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Ming Yang Smart Energy Group which raised $757m.

Ithaca has already received enough orders to cover the full deal size, including a so-called over-allotment option.

It was revealed earlier this week that the company was seeking to raise as much as $1bn, before downsizing.

Proceeds are being used to play down debt.

Sorry, 10.7 years for us.

OPEX for us is I think $22-$23 v $19 for IAE.

So apart from Production being 40%/20kboepd higher, the other metrics are quite similar.

Quest,

IAE net debt $1.4B, 0.9 leverage ratio.

Reserves life of just under 10 years for Ithaca and 11 years for us based on the production and 2P number as at end H1 2022.

Don't forget HSE-free, possibly child labour using, hand-mining of Cobalt, Nickel, rare earths etc for our pious EVs!!!

As per energy voice article; https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/457084/ithaca-energy-ipo-london-valuation/

I don’t know their finances, anyone got gag packet/rough numbers that could extrapolate to us?