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“If you strip away the capital costs”….
????
What a clown.
If you strip away death, humans are basically immortal!
Does anyone know of the floor price in other markets applies only to profits above that price (like income tax bands), or does the EPL apply to all profits but falls away if oil drops below the floor?
I am unclear as to the mechanism.
Indeed.
Chinese demand likely to increase by 1Mbpd+ as their flights resume and their borders open up, SPR draw down of another 800k barrels last week and global demand anticipated to be up by 2.7Mbpd on 2022.
Maybe if UKGOV actually confirm a price floor for PEL we may see some signs of life in the UKCS?
Chilling, as much as I hate feeding the trolls, your concept of Norway/Equinor any further oil and Gas development is as laughable as it is wrong:
NPD says $30B(!!!) to be invested on the NCS in next five years.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/30-Billion-Investment-Will-Keep-Norwegian-Gas-Output-High-For-Years.html
Equinor signs bareboat FPSO charter with Altera for Rosebank and Aker wins the yard sub-contract
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/473554/aker-solutions-and-drydock-win-major-deal-to-upgrade-rosebank-fpso/
Plus rumours about Equinor buying Suncor….
Chilting, from the Equinor website;
——-
Why do we need to find more oil and gas?
Equinor believes that the future of energy is uncertain. However, we expect the world’s population to increase, more people will become part of the middle class, economic growth will continue, and this will lead to higher energy demand.
Even in our Energy Perspectives Renewal Scenario, which is broadly aligned with limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C, there is a need for new supply to meet the future oil and gas demand.
——-
That last sentence is very relevant. Although it is a state entity, Equinor is left to get on with it. The Norwegians have this weird attitude that they trust the people who know best and responsibility is delegated accordingly. Not like the UK…
The main issue is likely the breakeven of Rosebank. Equinor have stated their portfolio average will be economical at $30. Johan Sverdrup and its 720,000 barrels a day is economic at $15. Last I heard Rosebank was about $38 so assume that’s well within the portfolio average with a peak of 80,000 of thereabouts.
The problem is who is that political party?
Tories are a shambles. Labour are a shambles. Lib Dems are a non-entity. SNP are a bag of ****e. Greens are deranged.
Also to note that Anders Opedal/Equinor have repeatedly said there will be no energy transition without continued investment in oil and gas.
The Norwegians know which side their bread is buttered and are world leaders in Production CO2 reductions. Johan Sverdrup releases less than a kilo of CO2 per barrel produced, 95% less than the world average.
Yes, they power from shore with hydro, but, they are likely the best partner in the face of the green noise and are the friendliest government to do business with.
Plus Equinor love paying tax and they pay tax at home at a higher rate than even the EPL!
So long as they get Rosebank over the line, it will bode well for their partner approval in our fields.
"It is obvious it is said to demonise fossil fuels but challenging figures plucked out of the air is surely not beyond the abilities of leaders of the British G&O industry?"
Romaron, for me this is the most worrying part.
HBR have said GoM is attractive and will probably get the lion's share of intended their UKCS CAPEX if they make an acquisition. EIG would welcome it and maybe give them a chance for a dual listing?
Wonder if Amjad is thinking anything similar? Maybe the EPL allowances are just the ticket to get KBB as the heavy oil hub of the UKCS. Hope so!
Just heard on classicFM news about last year being the hottest on record, Caroline Lucas gets wheeled out.
"Well it's doubly important to move away from Fossil Fuels, obviously due to the environmental impact, but also with gas 9x more expensive that renewables......."
AAAHAHHHHHH ****SW FAEHJOFEIWHJGRWOJH GEWOGHJREOPHGWPGHWJgwr';prBGW KGBWRGFW RENRG BGB
Why are they never challenged on;
1.) Is that an average like for like comparison?
2.) the price is great (if true - ha ha), what about on non-blowy days?
3.) Since roughly 20m homes have gas boilers/hobs, how do you propose they heat their homes using renewables?
4.) Where would the ~£1T come from to convert from gas to electric heating and insulate the UK housing stock?
These ****s are just useless soundbite ****wits. 90% of the UKHoP should be rounded up and deported for being useless snouts in troughs ****wits.
What the **** does she think she's contributing to the UK with such utter ****e? And if she hasn't even researched her ridiculously loaded claims, then she's even more useless than I thought.
F sake.
Jesus christ politicians are soooo f'king thick. I mean in terms of long term planning.
They should all be rounded up and put in prison, apart from the very few goods ones. I think all front bench teams probably deserve prison.
We're basically back to the days of PRT now. Except fields aren't producing 100,000 - 450,000 boepd anymore.
I highly suspect that this tax will not end in 2028. Wasn't income tax originally a temporary measure introduced by Pitt the Younger to pay for arming the country to fight the Napoleonic wars? Here we are over 200 years later still paying the temporary tax....
Insulating 19m homes. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. £250B? More? The wife and I are busy doing this at home just now in our old farm house. 100mm of celotex in the walls and ceiling joists, 50mm sheet of it over the top. Obviously redoing electrics and plumbing, but I am sure it will cost us over £15k in materials alone. I reckon probably £500B to do it for 19m homes. Once the politician's mates and Baronesses etc get their cut and all the rip off companies make out like bandits etc.
I don't think any of these politicians actually understand the supply chain of renewables either. Or the massive problem of intermittency of supply. Increasing wind ten fold still leaves you with massive gaps like just now when there is little wind to power them.
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?????
I suppose Sunak jizzed a few hundred billion on Covid, so what's a few hundred billion more eh?
At least now in Scotland our upper tax rates are now 42% and 47%. Can't wait to subsidise junkies and flag waving cretins and failing bureaucracy even more...
This current price point seems more attractive than the £0.40 IPO.
Current question is really who would partner?
On the report list have Serica stated any interest in heavy oil? I'd be surprised. Harbour have said no greenfield. Perenco similar to Serica - only do onshore and gas and Tullow are in Decom mode.
EnQuest probably too busy with Bentley and Bressay, Ithaca are a possibility, though Cambo and Rosebank will be costly. Waldorf could be possible though they've really only been active in producing assets. Equinor have Rosebank so probably too busy.
Would it likely be Total then?
Would they bring in a PE partner?
What does anyone think?
Revenue $2.6m and net profit $1.5m - does it seriously have a market cap higher than us??
Sure sign renewables is in a bubble and O&G is in a dirty, dank trough.
Other than wearing the ESG hat, what does Orrön have that we/O&G don't?
I'm assuming they're not about to announce some of super high margin project or something?
Immense, thanks to both of you.
Would that be allowable by the covenants though?
Can any of the seasoned (ex) traders on the board give a view on the likelihood of a hedge with only a floor and no ceiling? n Can such a position exist? Assume it would attract a huge fee?
Which is incredibly ironic as both BP and Shell pushed for the EPL/WFT knowing full well the impact on them would be minimal to zero.
What it would give them is great ESG brownie points with the various pension fund investors, ensuring that there would be no sell-off by these funds. Their cries of "we want to pay more tax" plus investing a little in renewable energy makes them fully "greenwashed".
Meanwhile in the real UKCS E&P world, all the indies are being tax to oblivion thanks to Loonie and van Beurden, but it's fine as they can talk about their good to society. Most aren't even making the pre-requisite "windfall profits" due to hedging.
Where are the windfall profits on the banks and traders who buy these hedged products?
I'd like to see how many people are employed at those two in the UKCS, versus all the indies and other operators alone. How many jobs are now at risk both at other operators and service companies due to the big mouths at Shell and BP?
AB will hopefully pull his usual rabbit(s) out of the hat though....
Anyone with a footprint larger than UKCS will divert capital away and look to wind down here.
Anyone UK only will possibly make the most of the allowances in the hope a profit will be allowed from 2028 onwards?
Where is the tech and banking windfall taxes? Tories are a joke now. In fact, all the political parties are joke. Maybe softening us up for the NWO....
****ing shambles.
Goodbye energy security.
One of the problems with the EPL is what is the actual sales price of the oil and gas?
Harbour for example; YTD realised gas price of £0.80/therm. Market average £2.00/therm. Sold lower due to hedging covenants in their financing. Surely whomever is benefitting from those hedges and then selling at market rate is making the "windfall profit" here?? But Whitehall is so economically illiterate, let's clobber all of them with this fantasy 65%-75% rate.
What's our realised Brent sales price? I can't remember but with the hedging is it even exceeding $80 average? Is $80 really a windfall level?
What a complete ****show.
Onedb, I think you're being a bit disingenuous here.
I'm certainly not advocating a "tax the rich" mentality. Working as a consultant, it pains me to see how much of my CT and dividend tax contributions are spaffed on rubbish. "Last chance to save the NHS" comes to mind. I suspect Thursday's prospective ****show will only increase my burden and probably everyone on this board's burden. No one is wanting that. We'll all deal with it differently as is within our means, but in many cases I suspect it will lead to reduced tax take.
I also appreciate tax treaties and certainly do not advocate double taxation.
What does irk me is when massively wealthy people domicile themselves in low/zero taxation jurisdictions. It doesn't benefit society. The UK tax code should be vastly simplified to ensure this type of situation cannot arise. If someone has had the benefit of the UK and the stability of it, then they should pay in to the system.
Also the relative tax rates paid by banks and tech companies is a shambles. A massive loophole that needs tidied up. Public bail outs or massive loop holes or both. Whereas UKCS get royally and repeatedly ****ed over.
I don't think how much tax someone pays is the only measure of their worth to society. That's a very short sighted view. It's one important element, but heartily ignores the value people bring to local communities through their time and dedication, which are arguably worth more, especially at a local level. What about people who volunteer a lot? They are usually the lynchpin of their communities.