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Good to see a hint of positivity from you, ODR. Exactly how Zaza is going to pull this off is hard to see at the moment. I give it a one in a thousand chance. Would love to think the odds are better.
I got very sceptical of the company on many occasions but stupidly didn't heed the warning signs:
1. Steve Nicandros's disastrous conference call several years ago when he sounded like a man having a nervous breakdown.
2. RNSs talking about the 'marketing of oil' rather than oil sales.
3. The refusal to let Mole into the AGM when he flew all the way to Houston.
4. The impossible to find, Varang.
5. Nameless 'service providers'
6. Zaza telling me at the first shareholder meeting that it wouldn't be right to discuss Frontera's major discoveries with the Georgian media (hinting then at problems with the government).
7. The very existence of the shareholder meetings which began to feel towards the last one that he was keeping us onside simply to support the share price which was being sold into by Yorkville and others.
8. The disappearance of Dustin Aro after just a few months.
9. The lack of flow data.
10. The looming court cases in October 2018
I'm sure others can add enormously to this list. I didn't stress test my investment enough and consider the geo-politics on top of the vague wording of RNSs. Zaza seemed very convincing and genuine in person. We have invested in a secretive company operating in a corrupt country still under the thumb of its neighbour Russia. Russia is still occupying a portion of the country. As we have seen this week, Russia has a tendency to poison its political opponents. Russia has huge influence over the President of the USA (and, it seems, the Prime Minister of the UK). So - tricky geology, impossible political environment, corrupt host government, no money in the coffers, failed court cases and arbitration (so it seems) and no communication from company directors. Doesn't look great, does it ?
I know the feeling, Predator.
Thanks, WellOiled and Errazel. So these CPRs are most likely old and refer to unexplored estimates so not useful for booking reserves. Zaza can talk the talk but we all want facts and multi-million investment, please.
I see he is still listed as a director of FRR. Seems to be an influential figure and part of the Riverstone-Carlyle group. Any one think he might be working behind the scenes ? Idle musings on a hot afternoon.
Iâm with Mole. I have far too much money stuck in here and wouldnât have the faintest idea what was going on if I was relying on the company for information. Zaza has said nothing to us since delisting. Of course, we all hope he knows what he is doing but the situation seems to have been spiralling out of control for years. The only source of comfort I can see Is that the American ambassador is now commenting and Pompeo is talking directly to the Prime Minister. What a mess.
It would be nice to see Zazaâs claims backed up with evidence for once. He hasnât done well in the Caymans or Californian courts so far. Is there going to be a big reveal or is this more grandstanding ?
The experience of not just the past two years but the past four years puts me in the cautious camp as well. All the promises, the half-truths, the hidden facts, the positive spin leave a sour taste. Having said that, this reprieve implies that we still have leverage and there may be more surprises to come in the run-up to the election. Even if we get a positive outcome in the end, the anxiety of the long, delisted period has been a hard price to pay. I'm still wishing I'd sold in October 2018. It will need a huge return to erase the pain of the past two years. GLA
Yes, thanks so much, Looed. You are keeping the board alive. The problems experienced by other companies in Georgia do not inspire confidence, unfortunately. Tales of gangsterism, sinister threats and extortion do not make for happy reading. Clearly, Frontera are not the only ones at odds with the government and their cronies. Whether or not Fronteraâs supposedly influential friends can turn things around is anyoneâs guess. GLA. Hope the cavalry is coming over the hill.
It's hard to keep track of how many legal fronts we are fighting on - and hard to believe we are still going. This has been an exhausting year and a half. Steve Nicandros seemed burned out just before he handed over to Zaza. I now feel like he sounded at his last conference call. Hoping for a miracle but certainly not counting on it.
That about sums it up, ODR. Wing and a prayer time.
This makes for very grim reading and highlights how many obstacles there are still to overcome above and beyond court cases, financial woes and geology. Wish Iâd been aware of this company and the reality of doing business two years ago. Of course, the warning signs were there but perhaps we were too ready to believe that Zaza, as a Georgian, could negotiate all of this.
Giorgi Vashadze is of the opinion that the government lost the arbitration !!! âHow many millions were spent, for example, in a dispute with Frontera, which is covered in farce, as if they have won the dispute. However, in most of the points, we have studied this issue, "Frontera" won, which I am not happy to tell you directly, as a citizen of Georgia, because this damage has to be paid from our budget.â The plot thickens !
Zaza claims: â. It says in the [arbitration] resolution that we have the right to continue, the contract says that we have the right to continue for many more years.â I didnât see that in the leaked arbitration document so itâs either been deleted or Zaza is extrapolating. Clear as mud, as always. Zaza is not convinced by the Governmentâs compromise overtures. We still seem to be in deadlock.
Itâs so hard to know what to make of all this. Zaza is keeping to the line that: âThere is no legal basis for terminating our contract.â The leaked arbitration document (which may or may not have been doctored) declares a material breach of the contract. Some posters here have argued that a material breach is not a significant breach. But maybe there has not been a material breach - or it has been rectified in good time by returning the 99%. Whatever the truth of the situation, Zaza is playing hardball and threatening further legal action if âcriminal expropriationâ takes place on July 27. Letâs hope he can back all of this up and has sufficient firepower and support to hold his position.
Sounds positive, if he means what he says: âWe are ready and flexible to talk about deadlines, conditions.â Extending the production period was the sticking point, according to Zaza earlier in the year.
ODR, on balance it seems like we have occasionally strung along by fantasists rather than people with inside knowledge. KickMuck was more convincing but he disappeared a long time ago. Straw-clutching is understandable in such dire circumstances but you are right to caution against false hopes on the basis of anonymous posters.
Good point, Freeatlast. Yes, there was anecdotal evidence of super majors working up the reserve estimates. We were told of extra staff being employed and we speculated as to who was paying them (us or BP ?). Would be good to have anecdotal evidence replaced with hard evidence. GLA
ODR, a couple of our Guardian Angel posters (B-2-0 and JRjnr) have suggested that a deal was hammered out during arbitration (with the GOGC and other parties) for developing the field. If there is any truth in this, then Zaza could be trying to persuade the GOGC to come clean and make a joint statement on the way forward rather than claim outright victory. Of course, the Guardian Angel theories could all be pie-in-the-sky and Zaza is just making a last-ditch attempt to avoid the inevitable. It's all guess-work. My reading of the arbitration judgement was not a happy experience. They declared a 70% victory for the GOGC and a material breach of the PSA. However, they denied the GOGC's claim for access to historical drilling records and other field information. Maybe this is one element of leverage Zaza still has.
I tend to agree with Mole's reservations regarding anything Zaza says about reserves. FRR have a long history of making spectacular claims and of being flexible with the truth. Of course, there is a possibility that BP or Baker Hughes have made their own assessments after the 'torturing of the wells' that Zaza said the super majors were requesting back in 2018 (remember those happier days !!!). Hard to believe we have the money for a new CPR. As always though, expect the unexpected with FRR. For once, it would nice if the unexpected was a positive rather than a negative surprise.