Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
We are now in the outhouse of the Last Chance Saloon, or the ditch behind that. Our hope is kept alive by the upbeat comments of two rare posters who claim to be in the know about a big deal behind the negative public posturing of the Georgian Govt and FRR. Whether these posters are insiders or fantasists remains to be seen. If we shareholders come out of this in profit after being knocked down so many times it will be the biggest comeback In history - and with a global pandemic added to the collection of hurdles to overcome ! Stay healthy Zaza and Steve. We need to see this play out to the very end - whether that will be to our joy or misery. GLA
I'm clutching at straws here, Star, and definitely feeling battered but Looed pointed out a couple of hours ago the following:
'Two FRR companies were involved in the arbitration but the termination has only been sent to the Georgia company. I have it my head that part of the asset was moved to another USA company (FRRUS or something like that). So Zaza agreed with the arbitration as the parts he wanted was already secure. he willingly hands back the land GOGC want.' Just trying to make sense of the latest twists and turns like everyone else. Would also like to hear from Oopsi.
Looking back through JRjnr’s posts, you seem hugely confident of a massive pay day. How many times has it seemed like it’s all over and then FRR refuse to lie down and die. I sincerely hope your confidence is well-founded and we can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and all get on with our lives. Would be nice to be rich in lockdown. Also curious to know your background if you are prepared to share. Cheers.
In the article Oopsi posted earlier, Zaza claims: 'The company said it was pleased with the decision and called on the government to end its unfair PR campaign against them and other US businesses operating in Georgia.' So FRR is PLEASED with the arbitration decision. Is he deluded ? What is going on here? More PR wars even after arbitration. What is Zaza hoping for and what leverage can he possibly have? The Georgian Govt is claiming it has taken back all of FRR's territory. Unfortunately, US senators will have other things on their minds at the moment than shenanigans in Georgia. What kind of corrupt nightmare did we all get dragged into? Nothing is transparent and never has been. I personally ignored obvious warning signs (Mole's treatment when he flew to Houston and wasn't let into the annual meeting; Steve N's disastrous last conference call; the use of the word 'marketed' rather than 'sold' in RNS announcements; the total opacity surrounding operations and finances; the mounting debt; the PSA worries; the resignations) and I was then seduced by Zaza's charm offensive. I even asked myself why he and Levan (and Dustin) were bothering to fly to London to promote the company to a bunch of solitary private investors. But the desire for this to be a success story was strong enough to drown out all the warning signs. We all thought we could hit the jackpot by hanging onto to Zaza's coat-tails. This is a story we were always struggling to understand - and we still don't. Lots of lessons learned but I would rather have not learned them at this cost.
As Freeatlast says, the Texas case is really a side show. We need a positive arbitration result and confirmation that the asset has been safely moved. Steve and Zaza need to farm out or sell off in order to settle with Hope. How they do this after arbitration (assuming it goes well) with a global emergency in full swing, is anyone's guess. We need a double miracle. GLA
Just wondering how the global pandemic might change Georgia's view of FRR should we get a favourable arbitration result. The political landscape is being reconfigured and Georgia will need to come out on the other side of the pandemic with a need to align itself to its strongest allies. I see the PM has been in a videoconference with the EU commissioner expressing his desire for greater European integration - http://georgiatoday.ge/news/20459/Georgian-PM-Holds-Video-Conference-With-European-Commissioner-Oliver-Varhelyi
Yes, you do wonder why the fight between directors (now an ex-director) has not come up in the Georgian media. Could this be to do with what discovery aims to reveal has been happening behind the scenes (i.e. Hope has allies hostile to FRR). All wild speculation but both sides wanted to keep their evidence confidential in the recent court cases. Who knows what kind of horse-trading is going on but maybe a favourable settlement is close.
Thanks Looed. The article is dated today so we still have a pulse and Zaza is still fighting the propaganda war.
This whole sorry story seems to have been one of underestimations, miscalculations, wrong moves, unforeseen consequences. Zaza always seemed confident and in control but that doesn’t mean he is. Steve seemed like a man on the edge of a nervous breakdown during his last conference call a few years ago. It’s not over, for sure. But predicting which way it will go is impossible given the powerful forces in play. Bring on the arbitration result and then we will have something concrete to speculate on once again. GLA
So, all we need to see a return on our investment is :
1. For the asset to confirmed and valued at several billion dollars.
2. For arbitration to be favourable to us.
3. The Georgian Govt to respect the arbitration and extend the licence to a commercially viable duration.
4. Super Majors to be still interested or for large investors to agree to loan us $100 million or more to develop the asset.
5. Russia to stay out of Georgia.
6. Hope to be paid off
7. Corona virus to go away
8. The world still want gas and oil into the next decade.
9. Zaza and Steve to not shaft us.
Not much to ask for !
Exactly Coggy. I remember looking at Netherland and Sewell’s CPR and noting that one caveat was that all calculations were based on FRR’s own figures. N & S has not visited the field. We have taken a lot on trust.
Met a Georgian woman in London tonight and asked her if she knew anything about Frontera. She said there was no significant gas in Georgia and people have been perpetrating this scam for years. She’s not an expert (she’s a banker) but it shows the prevalence of the counter narrative. We have only Zaza’s word on the NDAs with supermajors and Steve’s claims about massive gas reserves have fallen on deaf ears in Georgia. Who to believe? There’s an almighty battle going on over something. The truth has to come to light soon.
Ziggy Zag's point is indeed an interesting one. In the recent propaganda war against FRR why was there virtually no mention of liquidation, American court cases, huge debts ??? The American court cases have gone very quiet and the propaganda war has gone quiet. Are we to expect nothing more until the arbitration decision gets announced ? The silence is deafening.
I agree, Cannyscot. Zaza was happy to spend time with us in London as a PR exercise for the company when he was trying to prop up the share price. He was charming company. It's possible that he has been instructed to say absolutely nothing to shareholders by his legal advisors in case it comes back to bite him but a neutral statement of solidarity would surely be acceptable to his lawyers ?
Again, we just don't know. Is he embarrassed by the way things have turned out? Is he indifferent to us (probably). He's busy fighting multiple legal cases, politicians and his own work force. As many have said, the one crumb of comfort is that his wealth and Steve's is bound up in FRR shares - same as ours. No way of knowing if any of us (Zaza and Steve included) will see any of that again. Or, if Zaza and Steve will create a lucrative exit for themselves. They still seem to have skin in the game in Ukraine and Moldova so are planning for a future. It's all part of geo-political play that is way over our heads and maybe over Zaza and Steve's. The waiting continues.
There’s some reassurance in this ruling against Russian interests. Let’s hope we don’t have to go to appeal as this case did. That would mean more months of uncertainty. 14 months is already more than enough !
Zaza has over a billion shares. Steve has nearly twice that amount. We all have a lot to lose. Had a look to see if KickMuck was posting anywhere else but nothing since Sep 2019 and nothing on FRR since June 2019 when he wrote: 'No one is saying anything at the moment, which is understandable. Certainly a very frustrating time for PI holders, but these things take time and folks just have to trust that key players are aligned, as significant holders themselves, in this very valuable asset.' It certainly is frustrating and, while we know that a lot of hidden vested interests might be propping up Frontera, even those with seeming inside knowledge can still be wrong-footed by events. We await our fate. This has been a tortuous 14 months. GLA.
I’m with you Shafqut. The risks and warning signs were there to see for years. We did seem to have turned a corner when Zaza took over but the background politics was something none of us fully understood - even those who visited the country. We need arbitration or US influence to save the day but there are no easy guarantees. GLA.
ODR, I side with Tsbs and Regdik on the Zaza interview. This was on state TV and directed at the Georgian public. He was surely trying to redress the negative comments about Frontera and their workers. This was a PR exercise. The arbitration outcome and any potential deal struck prior to that would surely be unaffected by this interview. FRR is also fighting for its reputation in Georgia. If it survives these battles it needs to regain credibility in the eyes of the public.
Good to see such a massive case go against the Russian state and the rights of shareholders taken into consideration. Our case is different but the might of the state does not necessarily take precedence. Lots of accusations of Georgian state corruption are now in public circulation so who knows what FRR can present in private in their defence? I would have thought quite a lot from the time of Kakha Kaladze as Energy Minister.
Thanks for the correction ODR.