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However , if an RNS next week ahead of the results, what will the RNS be about?
- Confirmation of meeting on 30/9 - odds on favourite
- material sales of Covid LFT - odds against?
- resignation of CEO due to poor delivery against his own promises- odds in the balance ?
- HMG acknowledges AVACTA / LFT test exist ...1000 - 1 ?
Good news that the offer was over-subscribed but, seems odd that an offer supposedly to encourage other investors in provided opportunity for Directors to buy shares at 6p?
Time ticking toward 30th September . If there's no announcement of decent LFT sales figures soon (before 30th), the prospective for SP reaction before/on/after 30th ' results and presentation is not good?
The last three or four 'I'm excited' presentations by the CEO have all provoked SP fall?
The sales silence seems ominous. If they had decent sales they would be saying so?
Hopefully the SP low has passed, Friday's rise can be sustained and, the new experienced Director will bring about 'delivery' improvement. However, solid Covid test sales news is still the key to SP in the short term, as real cancer treatment news is of a one -two year timescale. (Even though the CEO will undoubtedly already be very excited in regular VOX etc interviews in anticipation!)
BBtablets marketing points seem to sum up Avacta's actual situation well - the excited (over-optimistic /unrealistic?) CEO 'ramped' the Covid test as a product out of all proportion to its real world existence and contracted production capacity. Inexperience in negotiating regulatory / political hurdles, product development and marketing became obvious, especially relative to sales progress made by others and despite, apparently, having the best test. One year on from the original CEO-raised expectation of product sales in summer 2020, deals with manufacturers and distributors remain very disappointing in practice in respect of actual production and sales. (Even now only a few boxes sold to Avacta fans? If it was better, surley they'd have told about it?). Inevitably ending in loss of trust /faith and SP decline from what are now obviously 'spikes'.
Many 'investors '- like me - made money on original holdings but, are now frustrated sitting on current losses and 'what might have been', having got drawn into rebuying / buying more at too-high prices. I have to keep reminding myself - I originally bought to be in 'early' on the cancer treatment hopes. In that context , early Covid based gains and, any that may still come, were /are therefore a bonus.
I'm holding because , if the cancer treatment succeeds, it could be massive.
....and shareholders and non shareholders should able to comment on this bulletin board, whether comments are positive or negative. Surely you dont just want excitement about prospects and nothing else on here? It's valid to point out risks and performance issues. In fact such Posts are good reality checks and, here's one:-
In making his first "excited" announcements about the Covid test in 2020, CEO Smith lead people to believe there would be an LFT test mass selling in summer 2020. It's now summer 2021 and still no sales at all. That suggests there are some organisational and performance or prioritisation issues to address within Avacta. It can not all be 'matters outside their control'.
By the way, I'm a shareholder.
So some good news in the week with formal EU recognition of the Covid test. But still no sales and no apparent sales strategy except posting of availability on websites. This SP will slide until firm, material (to SP) sales are achieved. Will this be in July? August? This calendar year? My investment in this company is now very much one of loss and hope ,not belief. I really dont want to hear any more "excitement" of the CEO. I want to hear of sales.
Templar, lets hope you're right nd it more than coincident remarks by the Avacta CEO. It also begs the question, what has Avacta been doing with Medusa since last years announcement? There's no doubt the SP is in need of Avacta actually selling some tests.
Scardey_cat,
Thanks for your excellent letter to Ms Bradshaw. I recommend you send it to MPs Steve Baker and Mark Harper as they may actually take it up with the Government and DHSC . Will you do that or, could I copy it to them?
Zendog
After 2020 'Covid test sales' became 2021 , Avacta is now "poised" (emphasised the CEO in presentation today ) to commence some LFT sales and ramp up over "coming months". It will be 2022 before any serious sales? I hope the LFT is not a perpetual 'jackanory' but, it has drifted very badly.
However, I'm holding because of the Precision cancer therapy - despite that being another 'hope' requiring 'shoot the moon' faith and acceptance of risk.
..based on the Covid LFT experience, we can but hope and dream. that that Therapeutics Team are better project managers. But if it works...it could be very, very BIG
If the EU wants to shoot itself in the foot again! (Though scope is limited. Both feet already well and truly shattered).
Perhaps buying the best available test is their chance for redemption.
Just hope Avacta dont let themselves get bullied into a low price.
And, there's a world to still play for outside the EU.
Good news from the MHRA .....and showing they can register device within a few days of a valid submission after all.
I wonder how close Avacta is to any orders. in the June 1st RNS the CEO said:-
"....the Company has continued its discussions with distributors and customers for the AffiDX® antigen test and does not anticipate that the [MHRA submission] error will cause a delay to first commercial sales of the product".
I read that as fact that, between May 10th and now, they were not anywhere near Orders. And, possibly they're not imminent even now. But. maybe it meant that they knew there was a particular timeline (perhaps within Government procurement) that meant the May 10th to now period was not on the critical path?
..and let's hope that critical path to orders is now , with Orders soon....
Please, not another false dawn.