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GMCC, I like your the figures but, the trouble is, this potential profitability keeps drifting further into the future. And at those timescales, Avacta will have to raise more money via further dilution.
Hence the SP downward drift.
I previously posted that I though TRP/JA meant 2023-24 financial year when indicating Quarters but, that was wrong. The RNS saying they have rig options in Q3 or Q4 refers to Q3 and Q4 IN 2023.
Therefore, "Q3" is July, August , September. July has gone and the chance of this coming together and happening by end September must now be about NIL.
So we are left with Q4 as the last hope.
Hence the further downward drift of the SP.
Will JA pull this out of the abys?
My last hope to recover a stupid (0.24 average!) horrendous current loss.
...warrants are paid for by shareholder value dilution. That is, we are paying Archer et al.
Are we ever going to get a return? Or, just lose all our money, diluted away until the company folds completely?
A rig for Q3 already looking unlikely as funding and contract will surely need to be in place very very soon if not already to meet Q3. So looks like the 'dream' will drift on until Q4
The April 27th technical update seems to demonstrate good further appraisal that has genuinely de-risked the intended well in terms of location choice.
For the opportunity potential, this share is still a good punters punt , especially at current price and up to maybe 0.25 p, as there'd still be potential for SP above that if the well commitment is confirmed and, further boom if it is successful.
On the downside - the licence risk - will it be renewed by the Cameroon Authorities; the finance - will it ever be put-together and committed (but "multiple options" adds hope); the rig and timing - are they able to get one within the nine months.
I'm going to hang in here on hope that this will all come together over the next 3- 6 months for a firm drilling commitment within their "nine months" .
But it's the last chance for this company. They will not have any credibility whatsoever (of any type) if they don't delver this now.
If TRP doesn't soon confirm the Cameroon drill will be done by end of May, then if we've got any sense we'll all bail out of this company before then, never mind Christmas.
I'm hanging on at present, risking a bigger loss than I've already got here but, nerve is really fraying now.