The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
It's always good to clear out the weak hands.
Investors that follow tw and the other online gurus are stupid or lack confidence/education to do their own research. Fortunately for them they have the numbers to be influential on the sp in the short term. Particularly when targeting a low mcap stock with a small exchange market size.
Hard facts ultimately win.
There's plenty of ways to do your own research; rns, annual reports, prospectus, cprs, interviews with bod and many others. How some people instead give such credibility to a stranger online is beyond me.
This investment is a special dividend play, the ceo has said so himself since the ipo. The sp is just noise.
Paul extracts a minor salary from the company, his pension is probably higher. He also put up a lot of his own money at ipo. He is not just the ceo, he's the largest shareholder in the company. He will be the largest beneficiary when the special dividends are paid. I've no doubt his interests are aligned with mine.
Great find tesla.
Key is that it is a scaled down version so it won't meet Irelands demand. A second project will then be required to make up the shortfall.
Irish news may be closer than anticipated.
Thanks for the replies guys.
Agree with mick, less inform in our rns might have been better. I still believe it wasn't aimed at us but instead whoever may fund mou4/5.
Crazy how simple wording of similiar rns can have such contrasting market reactions.
@matt, great results for yourself and rest of txp holders.
Atb
I've been banging on about gas prices for the last 18 months.
If it's bad in the UK just imagine what it's like in some other parts of the world.
Morroco and Algeria relations are tense to say the least. Morrocon industry players would jump at the chance to have their own in country supply at a fixed long term contract. This is where we come in and why Paul appears optimistic.
Algeria could bump up their prices to a level it's no longer profitable for the industrial sector. We've seen fertiliser plants shut in the UK because of gas prices, it's not unrealistic.
The 7mil downpayment to secure supply does not seem bad in comparison.
You're right nico. It's based on the price of oil, however with spot prices increasing the cost of importing increases and so gives the local suppliers the advantage at negotiations.
I'm not sure what the current morrocon figure is. A recent bloomberg article mentioned Japan is now paying $10, double the spot price.
Everyone will be paying more for years to come. Imo.
The plan is to sell the license area to a big player. The 3.65 bcf a year contract can be honoured as part of the sale. The new owner does what he pleases with the rest.
Truck haulage is likely method to be used for the small project. Once a big player takes over, that's when the pipeline comes into play.
The small pilot project which would involve selling 3.65 bcf a year for a netback of £15Mil is interesting now that we know Paul plans for funding mou4/5. It wasn't directed at us.
A gas off taker pays 7 mil upfront, we give them a discount over a few years to recoup their investment and some profit on top.
So they get a return on their investment, cheaper and more stable supply boosting their own profits. Let's not forget the benefits of switching from coal to gas in helping companies reach thier green targets.
Paul is the one is discussions with them, he believes it's a viable option.
Having watched the presentation twice and having seen all Paul's interviews. All is well in my opinion. If Paul is happy I'm happy. Gas sales planned for the end of 2022.
Paul said there was a reason to release those particular rns the way he did, unfortunately there wasn't time for him to explain why at the end. There's a presentation to the morrocon government planned for Q4 for 2021. We may get more info after this.
Grh was right about multiple well heads. Looks like we'll need 3.
@nickel
"Why doesn't another oil company farm in?"
With the positive results from mou-1, why should we give away equity in the acreage when it's possible to make a gas purchaser fund it, in return for a discounted long term supply contract.
It might not be possible for you to deliver this and would prefer to go down farm in route,. Thankfully Paul is at the helm and not yourself.
As for the gas suppliers, they can do their own due diligence on Mou1 results and the cpr. From Paul positive attitude it appears it won't be difficult to convince one to do so.
A 7mil upfront payment to guaranteed a local, cheaper and less poluting supply of energy for a companies industrial needs. Or they can continue to pay more for Algerian supplies despite the political climate between the 2 countries.
In regards to the returnable Bank guarantee. Paul feels it more appropriate to wait until mou1/4/5 are rigless tested together. Better to present the full picture. Paul has mentioned previously its about maintaining a good relationship with the morrocon government and banks.
In regards to Trinidad, co2 being injected is remotely managed, the well workovers require cerp and manpower on the ground. We also need approvals from heritage. Having followed Trinidad since ipo, imo heritage and covid are the bottleneck here, same as in the past.
"the pressure build up clearly hasn't delivered oil flow" May I suggest you do your research on oil Wells and eor. We can't flow test the offset wells until things in the country improve.
Impatient selling to the patient, shareprice will then stabilise.
Mou1 a discovery and success.
Gas prices at $5, in morroco they're much much higher. Those who disregard the ability to get a gas purchaser to fund mou-4/5 don't understand the situation in morroco or the wider gas market.
Trinidad I'll wait till the presentation at the end of the month to see where we're at. Appears the well workovers still being delayed by covid. Not a big deal.
Ireland, Paul's given away the info that he can, now we await the Irish governments decision. Not sure what else investors expect him to say.
I didn't think I'd see 300% loss posted again.
Someone clearly failed lower school numeracy.
Clealry they've panic sold at a loss (probably to avoid a 500% loss) and now they're bitter even though they avoided a 500% loss. Strange.
If you can't do basic maths then i doubt you're competent enough to make sound investment decision. The markets will always take money from the impatient/scared.
The stupidity of some folks is mind blowing, unfortunately the Internet gives everyone a voice.
Afternoon GRH
As I understand, during drilling any fluid or gas influx will lead to more mud weight being required to prevent a blowout.
It could be gas or it could be brine, given there's good dry gas shows in the area I'd bet gas and plenty.
Paul and starvalley will have expected an increase in mud weight required around the pay zones. So does significant imply more than pre drill expectations?
Paul is the expert and happy to go ahead with testing. Well heads have already been ordered, which tells me he's confident.
The plural is interesting. I think because we plan to test Mou1 the same time as we drill Mou4. The well heads will be installed to both Wells during that phase of work.
Chancers, can't keep away can you?
Trinidad was delayed in 2019 because heritage was undergoing a revamp by the Trinidadian government and there was change in personel. Paul's clarified this. Then covid happened and things progressed as much as they could given the restrictions. I know you're aware of this.
May I suggest researching the covid situation in t&t the past year and then explaining to the bb how you would have done things quicker in Paul's position?
According to Paul the restrictions affect well workovers, so please explain how you would get around this?
Those block sells below bid will be the placees cutting their losses and moving on. They never hold.
I've said it before the placing was at the wrong time. It added unnecessary selling pressure on the sp which will make some hesistent to buy. Once cleared the recovery can begin.
Great posts wacky Sefton and GRH.
I also missed those mud logs during my research.
The spot price of gas is currently $4.1, the last time it broke 4 was Nov 2018. The price has literally doubled since we acquired morroco.
Year to date it is up 90%.
Asian spot prices of gas are at an 8 year high.
The new cpr should reflect the substantial increase in margins as well as increase in reserves.