RE: Jameson Land: Will it be the Promised Land for 80M Shareholders?30 Sep 2025 13:49
Short answer: low-to-moderate — with two independent frontier exploration wells in Jameson Land I’d put the realistic chance of at least one oil/condensate discovery in the ballpark of ~10%–36%, depending on how optimistic you are about the per-well success probability.
Below I show how I get that range, the key factors that push it up or down, and the simple math so you can plug in your own numbers.
Why the uncertainty
Jameson Land is a frontier onshore/near-shore basin with good analogue arguments (similarities to parts of the North Sea) and a long history of geological work suggesting source rocks and plays. That gives some geological hope.
However the basin is underexplored; seismic imaging is complicated by igneous intrusions and structural complexity, which raises the chance of missing traps or over-interpreting prospects. That lowers confidence.
Very recent commercial activity (agreements and funding to drill two exploration wells) means these wells are actually planned and financed — so probability estimates matter. But company press releases do not publish formal per-well probability of success (POS).
How to convert a per-well POS into the chance of at least one success
If each well has probability p of hitting hydrocarbons and the two wells are treated (approximately) as independent, the probability at least one finds hydrocarbons is:
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)^2
Scenario numbers (examples)
Pessimistic: per-well POS 5% → P(at least one) = 1 − 0.95² = 9.8%.
Central/moderate: per-well POS 15% → P(at least one) = 1 − 0.85² = 27.8%.
Optimistic: per-well POS 30% → P(at least one) = 1 − 0.70² = 51.0%.
Those per-well POS choices are illustrative. For heavily explored, well-imaged basins operators sometimes assume 30–50% POS on good prospects; for frontier Arctic basins a per-well POS is often much lower (single-digit to low-teens %) because of imaging and play risk. The Jameson Land Basin likely sits below mature North Sea levels but above the worst unknowns because of prior studies and analogues.
Key factors that would raise or lower the per-well POS
Raise POS:
Strong, well-calibrated seismic evidence for charge, reservoir and trap.
Good legacy data (ARCO and others did substantial work in the 1970s–1990s).
Lower POS:
Poor seismic due to intrusions and imaging limits.
High risk that discovered hydrocarbons are non-commercial (too little volume, high CO₂, or poor reservoir quality).
Exploration targeting gases or noble gases rather than oil — some programmes emphasise helium/white hydrogen/condensate as much as oil.
Practical takeaways
If only life wsd yhat simple. A reasonable central estimate for “at least one success from two wells” is ~28% (assuming ~15% per well) — but sensible bounds span roughly 10% (pessimistic) to 50%+ (very optimistic) depending on how bullish you are about the seismic and geology.
As thi
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