Member Info for zanmantate

Superb update yesterday. Nice comment around gradually monetising the strategic portfolio and moving to more liquid investments.

Hilarious price action today. Someone bought a load, got hit with an NT to sell and dumped 15x 5k chunks?

Can’t argue with that, I’m not holding my breath though. I’ve passed that exact message to JV many times before.

200k dump today..

This is why I was so disappointed with the EDM extension. It pushes out any real excitement and catalysts until the end of next year. Until then JV will just fiddle around with the tactical portfolio, doing good but unappreciated work which we’ll only glimpse in updates every couple months at best. Agree this is not the share for you if you’re looking for regular updates

Sorry I misread your initial comment. My reply is the percentage of the NAV currently assigned to the Lagoa Salgada project.

Total return from the ASND would be higher than that as you say, but I’m not sure why that would be sobering? They put a good amount of money into it in the early days on diamond drilling etc and it’s returned a good amount.

I think there has been recent investment activity but focused on the tactical portfolio. Strategic has always been longer term investments, I think Luca is in the strategic which is more recent.

Unfortunately we no longer get the regular quarterly nav updates so have to wait longer for updates on these things.

NAV was £10m as of Dec 31st 2023. The Put option is worth about £4.5m from my notes, I'm pretty sure I read that JV applied a 20% discount on that as a conservative assumption. So that takes the LS project to about 35% of NAV.

There will be a detailed account of cap energy somewhere over the past 4 years of releases for anyone who has the time and desire.

How did you get to 60%?

It was cap energy yes. I remember it got vastly written down during 2020 low/negative oil pricing. Not heard about it since.

MAFL own some equity in ASND but the mcap is only £6m so it’s not much in real terms. We might be £100k better off? Not much in the grand scheme of things but it all adds up.

What makes you say that?

I’m expected next update to be audited results up to June 30th at end of Dec. So a while yet

Someone’s certainly spooked, was it something we said?

150k sell at 10.25p now showing..

MAFLs gold exposure is excellent through its various public and private holdings. JV also moved most of MAFLs cash to gold bullion when the price was $1800 per oz. Incredible, although I expect MAFL has not held 100% of their entire gold positions to the current day, slicing on the way up.

My main issue is around Lagoa Salgada, I was very disappointed with the most recent RNSs further delaying EDM’s decision and therefore our payout until late 2025 at the earliest imo. This will be a huge, and maybe the only, value catalyst to rerate the current share price closer to NAV imo.

Unfortunately I don’t see much movement until JV starts realising some significant gains. That was due to start now, but has been delayed by a year imo. Frustrating (of course I can understand why).

It’s a fair point guvvi and absolutely right to be sceptical.

I do quite like the hypothetical of EDM turning down their stake (assuming that action does not impede the development of LS). We jump up to a 20% free carry stake which in terms of value for MAFL, would be far greater than the put option.

Of course we would have to wait for LS to play out over the next 10 years instead of instantly monetising it on the spot.

All very interesting, as ever patience required. I’ve been here for 7 yrs, what’s another couple! :)

It’s worth remembering that this put option is not new, and a lot of our 26p NAV is already made up of this option. But if exercised it would turn a huge part of our NAV from an illiquid free carry to liquid cash.

Looks like that won’t be for a little while yet though. I’m confident ASND could drum up some financing arrangement to pay us, if not I assume they risk losing the whole project.

An Environmental impact assessment (EIA) was submitted to APA (portugese environmental authority) at the start of the year, although ascendant still awaiting to hear back. I assume APA passing the EIA will qualify this condition? In which case its just a waiting game.

No idea of next steps or timelines for DFS optimisation. No further info given from what I can see.

Good to hear and all the best. I also hold a similar level.

Not a great announcement for anyone interested in seeing timely progress of the Lagoa Salgada project.

So before any potential payday, we now need to see an Environmental Impact Statement issued for the project, and completion of the optimization study of the Project's feasibility study. Then add on another 3 months and we're there. Feels like we'll now be well into 2025 before any movement on the MAFL put option.

I imagine both conditions have come from discussions with EDM who want to see more before committing to the project.

@wizard i've not seen you around these parts for a good 5 years. Still interested/holding/buying MAFL?

Yep nice to see a little interest.

MM’s clearly have very few shares. Wouldn’t take much to kick this up to 15p-16p imo. A nice little update from Jacques reminding us of our 50%+ discount to NAV would be timely.

Back up to the level where Jacques bought 150k shares earlier this year.

Yes ascendant wouldn’t be able to afford our 5% stake without external financing. So I imagine if exercised it’ll be done alongside their mine financing milestones.

Of course if they absolutely can’t afford it, it would be interesting to see the repercussions. Them paying us if exercised is obviously a legal mandate.

In terms of dividends, I’m not convinced. Jacques ambition is to grow MAFL from a micro cap into something larger. With a 25% CAGR over the past 6 yrs you want all the cash invested, not going out to shareholders.

As other have mentioned, Jacques is getting on and the market doesn’t value mafl. My hope is post Lagoa Salgada playing out in the next year, the portfolio is liquidated and we end up with 40p worth of cash (plus private investments like idion).

I’ve spoken to Jacques about this in the past and he has historically expressed a view that the likelihood is, EDM will want to exercise their option.

Should find out one way or another in the coming month or two. Nicely for MAFL, it’s a win win. Either get a payout greater than the mcap in cash or 4x our stake in the lagoa salgada project (at a free carry basis to production).

Ascendant up 22% today on no news. Interesting.

Luca also up to $0.64!

My recent write up on X (aka Twitter):

https://x.com/zanmantate/status/1824487536015601928?s=46&t=jxVatkbTJUSw-AC_NTYHsw