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Morning All
First time posting on this board but i've been building a position here in the last couple weeks. Big thanks to the regular contributors for some informative posts in the past, they certainly helped bring me in from the cold.
Hoping I can get some help in validating some of my calculations. Earlier day Thairsa's twitter account tweeted a PGM basket price of $3500. See here: https://twitter.com/tharisa_sa/status/1361905888634822658?s=20
Based on this I get circa $560m annual revenue from PGMs alone, post discount for smelting i've got it coming in at circa $475m. Does this match up with others? At current spots for PGMs and chrome i'm then getting circa $240m gross profit?? Difficult to believe compared to MCAP, appreciate any comments if i'm missing anything.
Darlonil see a post I made a couple months ago:
Consider the following 'worst case'. Ascendant can't keep up payments, pay for drilling, maintain current fixed costs etc and default. Ascendant would default to a 25% stake in redcorp, despite having made additional $2.1m to MAFL in payments and having already invested substantially in drilling in order to move their stake up to 50%. So we would have in effect got all that for free (i.e. without having to sacrifice any additional share of redcorp). JV would then have to find another partner for earn in but I doubt that would be too tricky. As a worst case that sounds pretty good. So all is not lost if ASND collapses, quite the opposite actually. Some may say that would be a positive outcome given the current environment and recent drilling assays
Yep we’ve seen a fair few who bought 11p+ exit today for a tidy loss. Most of those 50k sells you can match to buys in the last couple days. I think there’s still some traders holding out for one more spike so am holding off for buying as they’ll be gone shortly.
MAFL isn’t a share you can trade easily unless you trade the cycles like Nom does. The spread, lack of liquidity and long periods of stagnation kills you. If im honest I personally don’t think this will be our year, 2022 and 2023 is where we’ll really see value. Get that DFS done and we’re off to the races.
Well there’s your NAV update. Very surprised it’s pretty much unchanged from June at circa 15.5p, despite receiving cash from ascendant. Looks like a strong pound has negatively affected a lot of the investment valuations.
Let’s see what the market thinks.
The way I see it, despite the impressive work to date, Lagoa Salgada is still at a relatively early stage. We have a PEA for the north zone, but it’s clear much more drilling is needed to expand and validate that. A full DFS then needs to be completed to get us into the road of turning it into a producing mine.
Ascendant have no cash and therefore progress has been, and will continue to be slow. They of course need to fund our contributions as well as drilling.
In the mean time we have lots else going on bumping up the NAV, but the market doesn’t seem to care about that. True value will out but imo that’ll take years as the LS asset develops. I think I’ll be buying up another load then switch off for a while.
Bring 8p on imo. I’ll be buying more
Remarkable ascendant (for those new here, that’s the TSX listed company funding the drill campaign with 25% stake in the resource) are actually currently down on the day by -2.5%. Very surprising given the impressive grades
Volume off the charts from today. Almost 10% of the shares in issue changing hands? Absolutely crazy
Well this has an exciting day! Did we hit 60% up at one point? Wow.
MAFLs clearly picked up by the P&D crew, many of whom have probably started posting on this board today. Not surprising with its tiny MCAP and free float. But don't let that distract you from this being an incredible company. Fundamentally over the next couple years this will turn into absolute gem of a company, but that will take years not weeks. Those grades are outstanding and further validate that, but there's still much work to do.
I'd encourage anyone looking in to do some research and come back when the traders have gone. You'll uncover a gem of a company. We need LTH's here not traders, without that it'll fall back down to 8s and lower imo. ATB all
Completely agree Nom. I hold a lot of copper producers and explorers as well as other base metals. Its a very bullish outlook imo
10.5p to buy any now. Q3 NAV update due anyday now as well as Ascendant assays and getting some decent interest from outside this board which makes a change. Fair play on your trading parcel, I'm selfishly hoping it doesn't :) Not too late to change your mind and tick us up into close Nom!
ASND up another 12% today. So let me get this straight:
Ascendant's sole project is Lagoa Salgada and they currently own 25% (with the option to increase). All cash going on exploration and paying MAFL, valued at £12m (after currency conversion)
MAFL has a NAV of £5m+ not including the vast amount of value for 75% of Lagoa Salgada. You would be forgiven for thinking our MCAP would be £15m, maybe £20m, or at least bigger than our partners who own less of the project and have less assets.
Current MAFL MCAP £4m. So much for the EMH ay
Ascendant up 23.5% today and holding. Someone got whiff of those assays? Due any day now..
Copper absolutely storming up as well... lovely
Great spot. I’ve kept a close eye on the historic investor presentations and I’ve not seen that graph before.
I think you’re exactly right. No other investment would cause such a swing from unlisted to listed asset composition. For me this is JV coming out and saying they expect some sort of monetisation event for the LS asset in the next 18 months which is very exciting for shareholders.
The only other option, as you say, is a listing and vast appreciation in our currently unlisted gold assets. However I see this is less likely due to the valuation difference. May drop JV an email..
Happy New Years all the MAFL-ers out there. Nice to see some good movement closing out 2020. Been a long slog but I’d bet my last buck this’ll come good and get to a decent MCAP in time, still sub £5m here.
Yep decent interview, a lot of it nothing particularly new. Main point of interest for me was the half a million Cap energy writedown. Significant write down for a £3m mcap company.
Progress at LS is slow and you can see that JV ideally wanted a partner with a bit more financial firepower than the current form of ASND. Having to rely on placings at ASND to fund progress is a challange, however hopefully some decent drill results in Jan can add a bit more to their SP for them to raise a good whack for some more drilling (and to fund our $1m payment!).
Yes I’ve been a shareholder of MAFL for 3 years plus, it’s definitely a long term play. I’m hoping next year brings some excitement as we’ll have results from our exploration program but also a big step up in payments from ASND. Think we’re due $1m US from ASND next June for example. For a £3m mcap company that’s big money. So hopefully not too long to wait!
With what’s looking like the start of a long overdue commodities bull run, MAFL are fantastically positioned.
Completely agree nomlungu. Copper is a hot commodity at the moment, some good grades should bring some interest! They seem confident! By any rate we’re cheap, I bought some more today after seeing that presentation. Will worth any investors time.
When you say potential 16% free carry. That’ll go up to 20% when the paperwork has been worked through for the rights from the gov, at least that’s the gist of it from my memory.
Very interesting presentation from Ascendant from last month - click the webcast button and enter details to watch. Goes into details about Lagoa Salgada and current drilling program. Assay in copper south section due early January.
https://www.ascendantresources.com/English/Investors/events/event-details/2020/HC-Wainwright--Co-Virtual-Mining-Conference/default.aspx
I’ve exchanged some messages with JV and reckon we’ll see a NAV update early January. I’m not expecting anything earlier than that. Planning to go through it properly but I do think we’ll be closer to 20p NAV than 15p (not that it makes a difference to the SP!). Lots of ascendant payments received in Q3.
I think the lack of liquidity puts people off. It’s very often NT to sell even small amounts. MM’s aren’t interested and you can’t blame them, the spread is big but there’s no volume to incentivise them.
Well I can’t make sense of the ASND SP movements, 25% up on no news. Either way seemed to have attracted a few buyers here.