Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Where you look at liquidity, volatility, fund structure, the assumptions of bond-equity anti-correlation, debt levels, interest rates, valuations pre-crash, the oil shock, and market psychology, it seems as though there is so much more to unwind. But it’s never good to be too sure of these things.
How will it happen, I wonder, if things do get worse?
After the last banking crisis, banks have responded by becoming more secure – they won’t do as badly this time round. A few might, in one particular sector, yet I feel we must look elsewhere for the real blow-up this time.
3.
Corona, oil, and the big picture
U
UK Uncensored
to me
12 hours agoDetails
UK Uncensored
Corona, oil, and the big picture
KIT WINDER 13/03/20
Firstly, I hope you are well and taking sensible precautions. Panic does no one any good, but nor does complacency.
You can be paranoid and wrong a million times, and you’ll come out okay. But overconfident and wrong? Well, that can only happen once.
It seems that we in the UK will go the way of Italy, with all sporting events cancelled, and some level of work-from-home, isolation or quarantine suggested by the government.
This is a health crisis, and an investment crisis. So far. If governments want to solve the latter, they must attend to the former. Luckily, we in the UK have a few things going for us: we aren’t first or second so we can study the effectiveness of other countries’ responses.
Secondly, we have free healthcare. The NHS is not built for this and nor is it prepared, nowhere is. At least we’re not in the US though.
Thirdly, summer in on the way. This disease seems to spread faster in cooler climates, hence the UK government’s policy of delaying. Italy is an anomaly, because a lot of Chinese workers are involved in fashion there. It was the cooler north that has seen the earliest and worst of the outbreak. South America and Africa have hardly any cases, and little or no growth (this may change and prove me wrong, of course).
Having said that, the spread of the virus is rapid, with doublings every couple of days suggesting that many developed nations are going the way of Italy. Germany’s up next, and the UK soon after. Markets are down 30% or more.
Will they fall further? I don’t want to say yes or no, that’s no help. It’s better instead to try and give odds, and decide if you think they’re higher or lower, falling or rising.
For my book, the odds of markets falling quite a lot further are around 50-60%, so I would be more cautious than confident, but not completely. One never wants to be anywhere near 100% sure in either direction. But with the FTSE 100 over 30% down yesterday at its trough, it’s also fair to start asking the question, how low can it go?
Where you look at liquidity, volatility, fund structure, the assumptions of bond-equity anti-correlation, debt levels, interest rates, valuations pre-crash, the oil shock, and market psychology, it seems as though there is so much more to unwind. But it’s never good to be too sure of these things.
How will it happen, I wonder, if things do get worse?
After the last banking crisis, banks have responded by becoming more secure – they won’t do as badly this time round. A few might, in one particular sector, yet I feel we must look elsewhere for the real blow-up this time.
Politicians and central banks are endlessly solving the last crisis, which means no two are ever the same. Comparisons to 2008 will not help us here.
My two spaces to watch are these. Firstly, shale oil, which is the mortgage
My two spaces to watch are these. Firstly, shale oil, which is the mortgage market of today. Overexuberant lending, low returns, a hamster wheel of doom when only new projects could sustain the debt levels accrued from the old. The unwind will require widespread bankruptcy or some kind of bailout or debt jubilee.
Secondly, asset management. A lot of risk has moved to the fund management and investing sector, as low interest rates encouraged risk taking and borrowing. Never a good combination. Somewhere there is a fund that was overoptimistic, and highly leveraged, and it’s blowing up. Expect gatings and illiquidity.
Corona, oil, and the big picture
U
UK Uncensored
to me
12 hours agoDetails
UK Uncensored
Corona, oil, and the big picture
KIT WINDER 13/03/20
Firstly, I hope you are well and taking sensible precautions. Panic does no one any good, but nor does complacency.
You can be paranoid and wrong a million times, and you’ll come out okay. But overconfident and wrong? Well, that can only happen once.
It seems that we in the UK will go the way of Italy, with all sporting events cancelled, and some level of work-from-home, isolation or quarantine suggested by the government.
This is a health crisis, and an investment crisis. So far. If governments want to solve the latter, they must attend to the former. Luckily, we in the UK have a few things going for us: we aren’t first or second so we can study the effectiveness of other countries’ responses.
Secondly, we have free healthcare. The NHS is not built for this and nor is it prepared, nowhere is. At least we’re not in the US though.
Thirdly, summer in on the way. This disease seems to spread faster in cooler climates, hence the UK government’s policy of delaying. Italy is an anomaly, because a lot of Chinese workers are involved in fashion there. It was the cooler north that has seen the earliest and worst of the outbreak. South America and Africa have hardly any cases, and little or no growth (this may change and prove me wrong, of course).
Having said that, the spread of the virus is rapid, with doublings every couple of days suggesting that many developed nations are going the way of Italy. Germany’s up next, and the UK soon after. Markets are down 30% or more.
Will they fall further? I don’t want to say yes or no, that’s no help. It’s better instead to try and give odds, and decide if you think they’re higher or lower, falling or rising.
For my book, the odds of markets falling quite a lot further are around 50-60%, so I would be more cautious than confident, but not completely. One never wants to be anywhere near 100% sure in either direction. But with the FTSE 100 over 30% down yesterday at its trough, it’s also fair to start asking the question, how low can it go?
Where you look at liquidity, volatility, fund structure, the assumptions of bond-equity anti-correlation, debt levels, interest rates, valuations pre-crash, the oil shock, and market psychology, it seems as though there is so much more to unwind. But it’s never good to be too sure of these things.
How will it happen, I wonder, if things do get worse?
After the last banking crisis, banks have responded by becoming more secure – they won’t do as badly this time round. A few might, in one particular sector, yet I feel we must look elsewhere for the real blow-up this time.
Politicians and central banks are endlessly solving the last crisis, which means no two are ever the same. Comparisons to 2008 will not help us here.
My two spaces to watch are these. Firstly, shale oil, which is the mortgage mar
https://mail.google.com/mail/mu/mp/940/#cv/Inbox/170d4db1a1608b5b
No worse than any other virus. Viruses are very clever and are changing their structure all the time. That is why we see infections year after year.
Latest figure show this one majority of infected people show no signs for at least 5 dsys. 1 in 100 show no symptoms even by 24 days. Current death rates very low.
Currently in vietnam with only 30 cases. Not sure if 100% true. However the country is now pretty much closing down. Everything i visit is closing behind me
It appears the AIM is so corrupt etc and our SP has been trashed. Being such a good CEO i am surprised FM is not moving off it as a matter of priority. At least to look after its shareholders
He said recently the SP will look after itself. From all the knowledge here that does not or may not happen
I do not understand how mms work in depth. How e.g on Friday do they drop the SP around 9% on only a relatively small excess of buys?
Why 9%, not 8, 7 etc
Do those MMs actually controlling the price only follow BMN and know a little about the company or are the individual mms looking at many
Are they aware e.g of Enerox news soon and drop to get cheap shares knowing they can raise to higher price to more buyers.
I assume they take "some risk" in that the company could announce bad news at any point causing sellers and SP to fall thus the shares the mms have bought would be worth less.
Or am i completely barking up the wrong tree
Forgot to say. Hysteria over here with the virus. Although allowed through immigration from Cambodia to Vietnam ok with temperature check. Many buses to Hoi An futher north would not let me on as a foreigner. The public are so influenced by the media hype
Ii sunny vietnam now. What will unlock the current suppressed SP apart from $profit. I assume cessation of ? share overhang. Shorting (I assume that may always be around) What else. We have gone through extended periods of little trading. V price increase. If continue on AIM still at the mercy of MMs agenda