We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
A small blip in the grand scheme of things. Spring is approaching and the lockdown hopefully getting eased (UK). It should mean more people will start spending money on clothing in anticipation to enjoy the outdoors again.
Boohoo SP has been consolidating in a triangle wedge pattern since last year. The price swings are getting smaller and smaller as we approach the tip of this formation. I expect the price to make a move by the end of April if not in the run-up to Preliminary Results on 5th May.
My money is on a break higher but that's obvious as I'm invested in boohoo.
Right now the SP is still trying to break through resistance around 374. Once that is cleared then the next level is around 392-396 (+9%) level. Then lastly it'll be the all-time high at about 434 (+19%). How long it'll take is anyone's guess. The SP has broken out of the massive triangle pattern recently and seems to be retesting the top level right now.
We do have support at around 350-355 (-3%) and then 325-330 (-9%). If the price corrects to the downside.
If you're relying on a 1p divi to pay for tax and fees then that just tough luck. I've held this stock since well before the SP fell in March. What did I do? Bought more since then and up about 20% in total holdings. Even with the +5% fall today.
Making nothing in a year? That's not Barclay's fault. Might be a hard pill to swallow and yeah it sucks the SP tanked when it did but nothing could have been done about it. Would you rather Barclays just pays a full divi and risk facing the consequences of the FCA. Which would tank the SP even more.
Why did the SP drop? Because too many people were expecting a higher divi payout and that expectation got shattered. In other words an overreaction on human emotion.
They might have been able to pay more out. But it's much better to play it safe than risking it all on some people been stupidly greedy. Stop thinking short term and making an instant return. You're not the only one who has gone through this. Many people in the same boat.
Anything you invest comes with a risk. Which means if it doesn't work you take the hit. If it pays off then you're quids in. Your money, your responsibility.
Why do people on here not realise that all UK banks have been warned to only pay limited dividends and bonuses? Do some research before complaining.
"In an effort to avoid eye-watering payouts at a time when much of the country is still struggling, the PRA will not immediately give bank bosses free rein over their dividend policy. Instead, it has imposed ‘temporary guardrails’, limiting payouts to either 0.2 per cent of each bank’s risk-weighted assets or 25 per cent of their profits for the last eight quarters, after deducting any previous payouts. The senior staff could also bag their Christmas bonus after all, as the regulator will lift its ban on extra pay."
This is why we are only getting a 1p dividends and a share buyback. The last thing banks want is the FCA cracking down on them by issuing fines or reinstating the ban.
For a break out of the triangle. We have been in since June last year.
https://i.imgur.com/GR7Pglg.png
Then hopefully a move up to 375p resistance. After that around 400 then if things progress well eventually ATH at 433.
Got plenty of patience to wait until that point and adding more on any dips in SP.
Just wondering what do you guys think the final results will look like when they are released next week? (16th Feb)
I know from the full year 2020 production report that Glencore has produced overall less than 2019 but I'm thinking due to commodity prices continuing to rise will offset the loss in overall production. I am correct in that line of thinking?
Here is a quote from nasdaq.com
"BP p.l.c. is expected* to report earnings on 02/02/2021 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2020. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 5 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.12. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.76."
Not sure what that is USD to GBP. My guess is about £0.09 but that's today's exchange rate.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/bp/earnings#:~:text=BP%20p.l.c.%20is%20expected*%20to,quarter%20last%20year%20was%20%240.76.
BP beat estimates in Q3 so I have high hopes they will beat Q4 estimates too.
The SP is still cooling off due to the massive rally from Oct/Nov bottom. The SP rose nearly 70% and was overbought on the RSI twice in that amount of time. In the same timescale, oil has rallied from $33 to $52. BP's break-even price for production of oil I believe is around £35. I don't see Q4 results been better than the last years Q4 results but Q4 should be much better than compared to Q1-3 results.
That be nice if they did. I think the events happening with Wallstreetbets has had a much larger fallout on the general stock markets which exacerbated the pullback yesterday. Great to see we got a bounce at 230 support and daily rsi has dropped below 50. Let's see if we can start moving upwards again.
I think Glencore's SP is experiencing a short term correction. Due to the fact, the stock has been overbought on the daily RSI since mid-Nov. Also, the SP increasing by nearly 90% in 2 1/2 months. I think we should start to bottom out above the 230-235 level and we do have Drilling report (3rd Feb) + Final Results (16th Feb) due next month. Which should give us some insight into how well the company is performing.
I think major oil companies like shell and bp earn a sizable portion of revenue in USD so a stronger pound hurts the SP as they get less GBP for their USD. Reason why the FTSE 100 struggles to rise when GBP strengthens for the same reason. Not the only reason but a major one none the less.
I don't think whoever was in government would have been able to sort this out if the result was to be out of the EU entirely. The EU has to keep every one of their 27 members satisfied as to not veto any "deal" they feel is unfair. While the UK has a massive problem of leaving an organisation which has expanded from just been a trading block to an all-encompassing political union. The UK population should have been given a vote just before the present-day EU was born in 1992 (Maastricht Treaty). Which didn't happen as both major political parties (Labour & Conservatives) signed away countless powers without any say so from the UK population. Which was one of many reasons the Brexit vote was so heatedly contested.
Leaving any organization after nearly 50 years of reliance was always going to be extremely difficult. Even more so considering how the EU treats any third-party business that doesn't operate inside its borders but has customers by slapping massive tariffs on said business products. In other words, a protectionist racket which means companies inside the EU don't need to adapt to the competition from outside the EU.
If the EEC still existed on its own then I would imagine most of the UK population would have been fine with staying inside. But the EEC is apart of the EU so you can't have one without the other. Meaning the only options were either WTO (no deal), A trade deal or BRINO. This is one of the many problems of politics in any decision and why most people loath it.
If we get no deal then it's going to equally hurt both the UK and EU massively. Even though people from each side will say it'll hurt the other more.
Now, will that hurt Barclays SP in the short term? Maybe. Investors hate uncertainty which is why the FTSE has struggled to really rise over the last 4 years. Once there is a decision then things maybe get worse before turning around but at least then investors know this major uncertainty has passed and can plan for the future.
I'm not 100% sure what happens to shareholders if it becomes delisted. ESL is in a strange position as it's a cash shell. So my thinking would be they would receive back their money invested at the current share price it closed at. But that's just a guess and could be completely wrong.
Keep in mind what was said in the last RNS.
"The Board remains committed to converting to an investing company, which will require a shareholder vote and completion of an equity fundraising of a minimum of £6 million in cash. Should the proposed conversion not be announced before 9 December 2020, it is expected that the Company's ordinary shares will be suspended from trading on AIM from that date. It is expected that the equity fundraising will be structured as a placing, subscription and open offer, and that new ordinary shares will be issued at a discount to recent share price levels."
Even if they have secured the minimum equity fundraise. It still needs to be voted on by shareholders and also need to be given equal opportunity to take part in said placing, subscription and open offer.
By the sounds, the proposed conversion needs to be announced by either end of today or before tomorrows open otherwise, the shares will be suspended from trading. "Should the proposed conversion not be announced before 9 December 2020 it is expected that the Company's ordinary shares will be suspended from trading on AIM from that date."
Well looks like Morrisons followed suit and caved in. I have a feeling Sainsbury's will do the same.
Certain shareholders will always take the hit (Small investors) while others who work high up in the company will be fine. Given the fact they receive bonuses in new shares anyway so technically it doesn't really cost them.
Probably doesn't help right now that some people are already upset at supermarkets for resuming dividend payouts. Even though they don't understand shareholders already took a hit in the SP. Due to the pandemic forcing supermarkets to incur massive one of costs. All they see in their eyes is someone else "apparently" earning money and supermarkets making a profit. Not realising investors putting their own capital at risk in order to earn a return.
One thing I've learned is never FOMO into anything. Even if an investment is rising rapidly. Yeah, you might get in and ride that wave up and if you sell into profit then great. But if you hold just a little bit too long, then you'll be left holding the bags and with a negative paper loss. AIM stocks are different beast it seems compared to the much larger FTSE 350 stocks. A few larger players can influence a stocks SP much easier in some situations. Like the situation from last week when ESL SP jumped higher for no reason. It's why there was an RNS posted to quell speculation and a potential pump and dump.
People buy for a number of different reasons. Some to make a quick profit while others may think it's a good long term investment. I got caught out on the other end of the scale. Holding for months waiting for news while the SP slowly sank lower. Normally I would average down to maybe break even sooner. But was already at my threshold of how much I was comfortable investing into one stock given ESL's circumstance. It recovered sometimes but not back to the levels I bought in at. I sold for a £1500 loss and then 2 weeks later the SP climbed higher and I could have made a little profit if I hadn't done so.
But that's when you learn from mistakes so you don't repeat them.
I believe from what I read of the last RNS "Response to share price movement" (24th November 2020) that if ESL is to stay listed as an AIM stock it needs to complete a minimum £6m equity fundraise and convert into an investing company or will face been delisted. (I'm not sure what delisting means for your shares in ESL as not something I'm well informed into. ESL is not a typical stock like others as it's a cash shell and holds only 49% indirectly owned associate GreenWhiteStar Acquisitions Limited ("GWSA"). The holding company of the Eddie Stobart, iForce, The Pallet Network and The Logistics People businesses (the "GWSA Group").
"The Board remains committed to converting to an investing company, which will require a shareholder vote and completion of an equity fundraising of a minimum of £6 million in cash. Should the proposed conversion not be announced before 9 December 2020, it is expected that the Company's ordinary shares will be suspended from trading on AIM from that date. It is expected that the equity fundraising will be structured as a placing, subscription and open offer, and that new ordinary shares will be issued at a discount to recent share price levels."
Also, they make the warning clear below things might not go as planned.
"There can be no certainty at this stage that either the conversion to an investing company or the placing and open offer will complete successfully, or as to the final terms in each instance. Updates will be provided by the Company in due course as appropriate."
I would say never invest your money into anything unless you've done your own due diligence in researching a said investment first. Even if it's a family member or close friend telling you to.
We will find out what happens by 9th Dec next week. We know that if Dbay decides to do an equity fundraising which will be a minimum of £6 million in cash. Then what's the discount price on each new shares going to be?
If it's 6p for example. Then that means there will be a minimum of 100 million new shares issued. Taking the total shares in issue to around 480M from 380M. Basically, adding 25% more shares meaning everyone's holding ESL could take a 25% hit if they don't take part in the equity fundraising.
Keep that in mind but obviously, it's just an example but could happen. Know your own risk. Good luck to everyone still invested here.