Member Info for Yolodn

@rylidan you are probably right. Institutions love to be 100% invested. If anything this works to our advantage as retail. We don’t have to follow the crowds and can buy when they approach 52week lows rather than the highs. On average most shares rise and fall by as much as 50% a year.

@Bubbles. I must admit that was part of the calculation. From initial purchase price it was doubling in approx 6 years but with todays capital growth of circa 20% (on the initial investment).

Now would that capital be better employed on money printing companies making 40% gross margins and great ROCE values? By my back of the envelope calculations I’d be 2.5-5% YOY better off… BUT a lot of assumptions in that calculation.

The thing that worries me about Aviva and the general UK insurance business is how sticky inflation is going to be and for how long it’s going to persist. An example would be all the equity release policies @4-5% p/a with no way of increasing prices.

BTW I moved my Aviva profits to Adobe a couple of weeks ago which is up 10% but I’m sitting on 60% cash at the min.

I sold all of my shares a few days ago for 408. Oh well. Happy with doubling my money in just over two years.

Financials will be delivered via zoom along with a big announcement of how they’re going to make the business more diverse and inclusive. Hang a few CIS white men and all will be well.

My bad, you are correct about Nick Train buying in around the £19 mark.

Re margins.

I think every company is feeling the heat on this one. But fevertree does have a rather large one which puts it in better position. I just think short term that the efficiency of the new production lines might not be where they need to be which creates a buying opportunity…

When you look at the markets they seem to be around fair value but that’s based upon previous earnings. However I expect a pretty steep reduction in demand being reported going forward.

Makes sense. It’s the logical progression. Some of the other big drinks players have bought out premium brands. By all accounts consumers don’t like them as much but this is surely going to have some effect on sales. Nick Train loaded up recently around the £15 mark.

Definitely one for the watchlist and will be buying around the £9 mark

Diageo has a much wider moat and brands for that matter. Fever tree is “just” tonic. Agreed, alot of consumers prefer it over other brands (just check the online reviews for the supermarkets) but does tonic really make that much of a difference to a G&T?

Hope so! Under £9 a share is a decent price to tuck away for a few years and see what happens. From my back of an envelope calculations I value the share at around £10 with 15% growth baked in.

Sterling really is a **** show at the minute isn’t it. Should have loaded up on USD when it was $1.30 to the £.

#armour

What were the actual reasons that the armor failed? Due to the proximate climate could these be sold on to different markets or even Other NATO countries that will all be rearming. Did anyone see any figures in relation to the margin/cost per unit at scale?

Really disappointing results. Regrettably I didn’t sell at £13+ worth about £7 a share now. Hope management doesn’t raise capital and take private.

With plans into becoming ‘more than’ TV I thought I’d finally get round to reviewing the Annual report. At 260 pages long my initial impression is why does it need to be that long and what are they hiding. As has become increasing common I had to trawl through the ‘building an inclusive culture’ and other impertinent wastes of money.

The strategy – how I see it working. (why this couldn’t be clearly communicated is beyond me by professionals, of whom are receiving 100k a year in pension contributions alone.)
ITV sells ads. The market place has changed over the last 10-15 years with the uptake of social media. Companies now want direct, targeted ads to the demographics that they wish to target. Think Facebook and Google. This is the future and is more profitable. P44 mentions data match which generates ‘nearly £2.50 for every £1 spent’. Which seems on the surface a ROR of 60% - has anyone been able to get the figures and do a deeper dive ?

What I like about this new strategy is that it’s capable of targeting using first party data. This is an important distinction between Facebook and google. Out of the big players only Amazon does this and was one of the key drivers of Terry Smith investing in Amazon.

The strategy is easily scalable with very minimal variable costs. It’s essentially set and forget. ITV expect this digital revenue to double to 750M by 2026. Which of the board are able to deliver seems a shrewd strategic idea with its break even point and the ability to write off the upcoming tax implications of the increase to 25%.

The data generated from the cross platform viewing will be used to further segment markets and shows watched, which in turn will be used to create content further down the line. Which again this will be customisable to any of the meta data collected.

The studio business.
Is expected to be making 13-15% margin by 2023. The potential synergies between the studio/digital data mining/online ads will also streamline the business and I expect cost savings to all areas of the business mentioned to come online later.

The grand strategy and how it all fits in.
-Data mine EVERYTHING online to sell higher margin customisable ads.
- Use the meta data to make content that the more profitable market segments wants to watch and keep logging in to do so. Which sells more ads for a higher price…
- Once the content has aired online use it for terrestrial TV further down the line.

The negatives

The fact that the board have made massive errors in the contractual obligations in obtaining media and studios is unforgivable. A rough figure of overpaying by 145% on the stated price is shocking. I’m honestly shocked that they have been allowed to get away with this by shareholders.

Decent post. Although I give very little credence to broker ratings.

The devil is in the detail though and I found certain parts of the report disingenuous. The one that comes to mind is how they grouped in the Brit box international figures with the UK market. Bit further on in the report you have to figure out that they make £5er a year from the international subscriptions…

Burry sold out at a similar level. What would you do with the proceeds of the sale and what are the associated opportunity costs?

Pretty similar position to me. Bought in around the £14.50 mark - Micheal Burry also owns a lot of these at a similar price. Will happily buy more sun £15. I’m also looking at Lgen around the £2.50 mark.

Personally I’m not too worried about a reduction in sales in Russia/Ukraine. What does worry me is the commodity inflation that we are going to see because of it. Just take a look at the commodity futures, especially wheat and palladium.

I buy stocks to make money. I care not about CSR - it’s all a sham. The thought of companies getting involved in politics annoys me, even when they “come out” and say they support LGBTQ+, I think no sheet, 0 political capital spent there so why say it. . Terry Smith was right… stick to what you know and sell and make use of the pricing power with inflation about to get a whole lot worse.

I did exactly the same as you. Nice little profit banked.