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Would be good to see the Chair to put his hand in his pocket.

The THG circus will have been keeping him very busy behind the scenes not doubt.

I’m going to stop overthinking it @LD1973!

This demerger plan wasn’t blocked by QIA & Balderton, so they must be OK with the principle of it.

Looks like they aren’t in the gang that will take on more Ingenuity shares, but they may still take up their pro rata in Ingenuity. We just don’t know.

Will be interesting to see what the THG register looks like once all the T1’s are in, but I think we can assume that QIA/Balderton are no longer in MM’s pocket on all decisions.

Interesting times

Ingenuity staff costs already in ingenuity p&l.

Might expect a minor reduction in group costs with less complexity in group, but still a plc group so not lots imo

Call me cynical but rushed capital raise seems to have been contrived to get a few more MM friendly % on the register.

So Matt’s support is down to Sofina and family offices? Assuming Balderton also didn’t invest also as they were missing from the fund raise RNS also.

Is it just me that thinks Matt’s grip is looking a bit shaky.

With QIA and Balderton not in the raise it isn’t clear to me that MM still has 50%. But then the way he as structured the raise it might just have sneaked him back over 50% with Sofina and the family offices. It’s marginal

@LD My assumption is that MM was talking enterprise value for the Apollo Ingenuity valuation. So likely double the Ingenuity valuation the BoD are applying at demerger rather than 6x. That said, Ingenuity has made significant progress since then and had significant capex. So not quite as bad as you are suggesting, but looks too low for exiting Ingenuity shareholders.

Matt’s got nowhere to hide on Q4 and Q1 nutrition numbers. In fact you can add to Beauty to that as well. Needs strong performance for both and no more misses, no more excuses will wash it.

He came out fighting on the analyst call for Q3 trading update. Much more convincing than the interims where he was just bloomin awful.

We’ll see if he can deliver. Market, as ever thinks not.

Time will tell what Big Mikes interest in THG really is. My money is on him being after 10% of Ingenuity.

One thing is for sure, if his interest is remainco, he won’t be stopping at £10m, such a small % is an irrelevance to him.

404x. So bloomin small though £10m, would be immaterial for reporting purposes.

Part of my thinking re Ashley going into Ingenuity, is why the heck have BoD put a £100m equity valuation on Ingenuity. Easier to justify of course, it is an actual “bid” from a strategic investor.

I could well be barking up the wrong tree so happy for people to pick holes in it.

Why couldn’t Ashley get first dibs on Ingenuity if he was coming in as a strategic investor/partner for Ingenuity.

He can move over “whale” D2C business which would materially increase Ingenuity’s valuation by massively improving then THG vs 3rd party client mix.

@osg thoughts also?

Without wishing to bang on and speculate too much, would appreciate a critique of this hypothesis. There are some clever folks on here. @oohahh @1pencil even the kind of doom @stevescott. Pick holes in it.

Ashley is lined up as a strategic investor in Ingenuity, where Fraser plus being rolled out, and he has the option to move over “whale” levels of D2C business.

Ashley prepared to pay no more than £10m for a 10% stake, as his business is key to Ingenuity prospects.

MM & backers want to take Ingenuity private but don’t want to dilute at that price.

So Ashley invests £10m in THGplc but nominates all Ingenuity at demerger. MM and his c50% club give assurances to Ashley that he will get his £10m in Ingenuity.

If 1 in 10 of existing THG plc investors opt out of Ingenuity at demerger Ashley gets his 10% of Ingenuity without MM & friends having to dilute at £100m valuation. If 1 in 10 don’t opt out, he gets the balance from MM&friends but it minimises their dilution.

Think about it train tracks.

Ashley is a whale as far as possible ingenuity goes. Would be a great startegic investor.

And they are probably going he takes retail investors shares, rather than theirs.

JMO

Starting to think this whole demerger and £100m Ingenuity valuation is being driven by getting Ashley on the Ingenuity register as a strategic investor for £10m @ 10%.

Maybe that’s his price cap?

If that is the case, you’re not getting my Ingenuity shares at that price. You can have some of Matt’s instead.

#nonthanksmike

#nothanksmatt

£10m for 10% of Ingenuity, and then shortly after announce a chunk of Ashley’s portfolio moving over to Ingenuity for D2C?

Take your ingenuity shares, and then at least Matt and his cronies will have to give mike his cheap ingenuity shares, and not you! JMO

@traintracks we don’t know.

I strongly believe that Ashley will be ending up with 10% of Ingenuity.

Just my opinion, but the £10mm for 10% of Ingenuity makes much more sense to me, than not much THG.

@telx and others

Having reflected on the risk of dillution in Ingenuity post demerger, I am less worried about this than most.

1) Ingenuity has excess infrastructure. If the modelling

Is correct, you would hope that Ingenuity will not need to raise until that infrastructure is at capacity, and Ingenuity is a much more valueable business.

2) MM’s investors in THG’s early days did very nicely getting diluted at much higher valuations along the way. The equity value of Ingenuity is so low, I’m confident future raises will be at higher valuations.

From what I can see, this mechanism works OK for everybody, except shareholders who can’t or don’t want to take up their pro rata share in Ingenuity. They have to endure a “made up” Ingenuity valuation as the price for “getting out” of Ingenuity.

No explanation by anyone from the BoD as to why this is the best way forward for everyone. Would love to know why the NED BoD voted this through, as opposed to a proper “process” for a minority stake in a demerged Ingenuity to the tune of the £75-£100m capital that was raised by THG plc. At least this would have ensured a “market tested” price for Ingenuity for exiting shareholders.

Don’t see why QIA would bail ahead of demerger and anticipated rerate