Analysis Part 14 Jul 2017 01:30
KingOfKeighley,
Your points are duly noted.
I have laid out just some of the significant concerns that exist, but, notwithstanding the rhubarb from EarlyInvestor, the cheerleaders on twitter have been unable to refute a single point. Seeking to affect little shifts and subterfuge to avoid the force of argument is hardly a compelling rebuttal.
The reality is they know that the points I have raised are lifted verbatim from the information laid out by the Co. but which these nuts neither understand not have the ability to assimilate. Their view is confined to something along the lines of 'it is a low m/c and Trevor Brown is on the Board and endless ramping is bound to see this illiquid tiddler move higher'.
If EarlyBird suggests that the points I have raised in my previous point have been addressed, I put them here again and ask him to answer (not with expletives and personal insults to conceal the fact he has no answer, but with hard facts). Here goes
1. Is it the case that just over a year ago the main asset of FBDU, Stonechecker, was purchased by Feedback for one thousand pounds? The answer is Yes.
2.Is it the case that Feedback then sold the stake for 45 times that amount (i.e 45k but for one half) some months later to Trevor Brown? The answer is yes.
3. Is it the case that Feedback, who knew the product inside out at the time of the sale having refined the software, indicated that they did not think it appropriate to justify sufficient spend on this product and preferred instead to concentrate on their other products?
4. Is it the case that Trevor Brown, who, according to people like Early Bird, is well aware this is a blockbuster product set to capture and revolutionise a billion dollar market, knowing all this decided a couple of months ago to sell the asset to FBDU for a mere 240k (but still considerably above the sum paid for it)?
5. Is it the case that despite all the talk from the twitter nuts and those like Early Bird, the Co. has confirmed that sales of a mere 450k are expected next year?
6. Is it the case that even those sales are only anticipated if the Co. is able to conduct additional trials, overcome regulatory burdens, and engage spend in significant marketing and sales campaigns?
7. Is it the case that the sum of 450k raised recently has already been earmarked for initiatives laid out in Point 6? The answer is yes.
8. Thus, ramping aside, on a pure valuation basis, is it the case that a m/c of 2 million (58x3.5) this looks to have plenty of hope already factored into it? Yes, thought so.
Summary: Illiquid tiddlers can be ramped to various unjustifiable levels based on buying by deluded nuts. But, from a valuatiion perspective (and in the long run everything reverts back to value, the old adage of weighing and voting machines), this is worth as follows:
Stone Checker/Prevent: 240k - last crystallised value. I will be very generous and double it even though no tangible developments have since occ