Positive spin & poster attacks continue4 Feb 2022 11:00
Some people keep spinning this placing as a good thing, is not. I am still angry with this placing, struggling to find words, but my opinion is as follows.
There is no question about it, this placing maybe necessary (due to mismanagement) to fulfil the loan obligations and keeping the lights on, but it stinks. Also, the indications are that this placing may not be the last one before we see any gas (if we see gas). Why I think there maybe more placings?
As WG pointed out, Angus still had about 370 million shares left over from the previous authorisation. This is enough to cover the 175 million shares placing just issued. Yet, we had an EGM a few weeks before the AGM to authorise the issue of a lot more shares.Why couldn’t Angus wait until March? They had enough authorisation to cover this placing, yet they rushed to authorise more. Obviously, they may need to issue more.
When GL came in to the picture in January 2019 the SP was 12p and the float was 404 mil shares. He more or less immediately issued 55 mil shares to pay off £1.5 mil to Riverford that Vonk borrowed (seen as a good thing at the time) taking the float to 459 million shares.
Today the float stands 1,268 million shares (a 276% increase) and the SP sits at 0.8p (1,500% decrease).
On top of that there is no clear indication as to when 1st gas will be achieved and no one can predict because nobody knows when the PP & EA approvals will arrive. And if these approvals don’t arrive in time we may reach a situation where more shares have to be issued to make loan repayments and pay for the hedge, unless they can renegotiate these, but what is the chance of this happening?
All these cost miscalculations and deadline extensions are in my opinion 100% down to mismanagement. Their project management capabilities are extremely poor; The FEED design was completed long ago, why on earth weren’t the PP & EA applications submitted earlier? Any HSE changes would have been submitted earlier and approvals already obtained. Why are the costs miscalculated time after time? Obviously, there is inadequate Engineering and above all Project Management expertise.
I am actually not sure now whether this Angus bunch is capable of expediting the equipment manufacture and delivery, installation, commissioning and testing in good time before the hedge kicks-in. I am afraid of having unforeseen installation, commissioning and system integration issues that keep delaying 1st gas, and this assuming a timely PP & EA approval. I lost faith in Angus ability to deliver this project. I am now hoping for an actual sale to happen, even below as close as possible to my breakeven price of 2p.
As I said above, this is my opinion and each to their own.
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