Member Info for y11-shx

For anyone that does read before or after trading it says this just in case you missed it…..

After completion, LLOG Holdings will own ~11 % of Harbour’s voting ordinary shares and existing shareholders will own ~89 %.

Yeah and I’m out at the moment. And the answer is 11 percent that’s how many shares they will sell 11 percent of the current amount which is about 22p worth of dilution.

How many new shares are they going to issue to pay for this new deal?

I’ve done some calculations and I see harbour energy trading between 145 and 205 this new deal and dividends been cut in half isn’t going to attract new investors. You may as well play it safe with BP or Shell.

I wonder if Christmas can come twice this year! Could we have a repeat of yesterday please??? Or what if there’s not enough buyers and we fall down to 190. Will the dividend be cut before the next payout??

That’s good it means the share price will be 450

Harbour will definitely double once it hits £1 lol 😂

This will be 240 by ex div date. Time to sit back and grab a few more later on if the price is right!

Wow managed to get 30100 shares at 193.50 nice Xmas present. Very hard to buy must be a drop to take out all the stop losses

What’s remarkable about the oil market right now isn’t the lack of geopolitical risk, it’s that risk is everywhere, yet price refuses to respond. Ukraine is degrading Russian infrastructure and logistics, the shadow fleet is under pressure, the US is seizing Venezuelan tankers and raising tensions in its own hemisphere, and the Middle East remains a latent wildcard. In another era, this would’ve sent crude screaming higher.

Instead, oil looks heavy.

That tells you the market is no longer pricing headlines, it’s pricing flows. As long as barrels keep moving, even through darker and more complex channels, disruption is treated as noise. Russian supply hasn’t disappeared, it’s been rerouted and discounted. Venezuelan oil isn’t gone, it’s become a political tool rather than a true supply shock.

At the same time, demand fears dominate. China’s recovery is underwhelming, Europe is stagnant, and even the US shows late-cycle fatigue. In that environment, oil stops being a scarcity trade and starts being a drag on growth. Every rally gets sold.

Add in the US acting as the global shock absorber — record production, rapid shale response, strategic inventory management — and the risk premium gets crushed. Politics reinforces this. No administration wants rising gasoline prices heading into elections, and the tools to lean on sentiment are subtle but effective.

The danger isn’t that geopolitics don’t matter. It’s that the market believes buffers still exist. Oil threatening to break lower in the face of escalating conflict is a signal, growth risk is seen as greater than war risk. Historically, that’s often when complacency sets in, and when the real energy shock becomes possible.

This is Christmas come early territory just a few more pennies maybe 195 would be nice

Yeah seaforde stop been a donut as if there is no tax to pay, I bet you have a magic unicorn doing your accounts!

Mike this would definitely explain the support in the share price. I had the price at 195 yesterday if it wasn’t for this.

Buybacks make sense when volatility misprices value. If oil is structurally lower, though, holding the share price up now risks a more painful adjustment later.

Yeah I was surprised share price held really well. Most like due to buybacks. I really thought we would have broken 200 today with the drop in oil price.

I think the US is about to show us some direction.

Is the concern simply that LetterOne was founded by Russian oligarchs, some of whom have previously been sanctioned? Because that’s exactly why their Harbour stake is non-voting — no control, no board influence, no governance rights. The ‘Russian oligarch’ angle is already priced into the structure?

My last comment on TLW was in feb when share price was 16p. Read it dumb ass it says exactly what happened text book.

Investors will start panicking when it breaks 200 that’s when you get a bigger drop like last April. People sell when they should be buying and buying when they should be selling. So far the share price has held up quite well.

Yes, LetterOne holds ~15% of Harbour Energy, but only non-voting convertible shares. They currently have no voting rights or control.

Looks like we’re priced for recession now. Oil is cheap because demand fears dominate, but once rate cuts feed through, history suggests a 6–12 month rebound. The bigger risk later isn’t deflation…… it’s inflation making a comeback.