Member Info for wwguk

Thanks OR for the link. The fast single day was 72 metes in the crossrial:
"72 metres by Ellie on 16 April 2014 between Pudding Mill Lane and Stepney Green. Crossrail tunnelling progressed at a collective average of 38 metres per day."

After the few km, the whole tunnel (i.e., MTS) sits in the Redcar Mudstone layer. The Redcar Formation is a grey, fossiliferous mudstone and siltstone with low permeability, i.e, dry and not so hard stone formation.

The Stella Rose may go even faster (than 40m it ready reached a few days ago) when it is in the Redcar Mudstone layer.

Very interesting 360 degree view of the tunnel. We can see on the top part of the images that the conveyor fixing has already been changed from previous hanging chain to metal frame fixed on the wall.

Simon Clarke, prospective MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, was joined by Tory trade secretary, Liz Truss as the pair campaigned in Marton.

Standing under an umbrella on rainy Knaresborough Avenue, Marton, on Tuesday morning, Liz Truss said: "The Government needs to look across the board at projects and make sure they're the right projects and often those discussions take place internally. [SM not the right one?]

Simon Clarke added: "We were told, frankly, that the company would close if it didn't get that Government backing and it hasn't [the gov stayed on the sideline, so far it had not closed as SM indicated?], it's restructured its plans, it's continuing to excavate the site, bring out the polyhalite.

"What we want it to do is succeed on its own terms as a commercial venture [it is commercial project, not the sort of thing the cons. gov would help; life or die they have to compete in the market and live their life?], I'm confident it will do so."

[The gov does not provide not because the worry of the taxplayer's money under some risk, but because they do not see it as the type of projects they would help].

[If the shareholders want the support from a new gov, they might have to look for different ones (both the MP and the gov; although not sure if the other would provide a filled cheque as promised]

Inside [ ] are the comments.

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/sirius-minerals-trade-secretary-quizzed-17319288

"There has been no change to the project situation since our last market update on 11 November - some work is continuing and other work has been paused or is gradually reducing while pathways for funding are explored." Further detail available in the update: http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/sirius_minerals/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?newsid=1344049&cid=485

Hi, GK, I am fine, thanks. Another (welcome) pattern to repeat could be if their selling is done, the balance of supply and demand changes, then sp rises counter-intuitive to their shake reduction.

Capital Group sold 2.08% 146m shares in past few weeks, and dropped below 3% (it has been removed from the SM top II list on the SM website).
This should be reported in an RNS.
Will history repeat itself?

So was the drop

The largest collection so far this year of evidence, practical experience and feelgood factors of the positive benefits of polyhalite – as Polysulphate – and potash has just been shared at a major crop nutrition event in China.

The theme of the 13th IPI-CAU-ISSAS International Symposium was “Potash and Polyhalite: Potassium, Sulphur, Magnesium and Calcium for Efficient Balanced Plant Nutrition”.
https://polysulphate.com/news/major-crop-nutrition-event-in-china-has-the-feelgood-factor/

"Polysulphate is a relatively new product in China. However, with the growing awareness of the effective nutrition it delivers for a wide range of crops, demand is rapidly increasing. Fertilizer retailers came to the Kunming Symposium to add to what they know but also to share their experiences in supplying it to their farmer customers. Amir Gerber, FertilizerpluS Marketing Manager at ICL Fertilizers, was particularly interested to hear what they had to say."

“Polysulphate development in the Chinese market is really inspiring. I was very impressed from what one of our biggest customers from Yunnan province said when he explained how it ‘feels better in the heart’ to promote this natural and environmental-friendly fertilizer".

Thanks, Myo, for identifying the new (Nov 2019) flyover videos on its three construction sites.
Now, we can see clearly where the SBR is: partially assembled and stored, waiting for the funding to proceed with its installation in the service shaft.

sorry, 7.6p cost per share is for 75% dilution immediately after the £600m raised.
After the rest of $2.5b raised:
cost per share: £3.57b/22.65b = 16.21p (75% dilution)
£3.57b/15 = 24p (50% dilution)

ffc, even if $200m by strategy partner and $400m via. bonds, I gather the dilution would still be higher than what you suggested, i.e., 10b shares. As $400m bonds are not likely pure debt; they are very likely convertible bonds or bonds with warrants. 14b shares, i.e. a 50% dilution, would already be quite good under the current condition; as it could be a 75% dilution if the investors push harder. In case after the $600m, the rest $2.5b could be raised by debt only, the 50% dilution would still give us a £3.57b/15 = 24p cost per share. 75% dilution would give us a 7.6p per share. Either cases would be much better than the current sp.

I thought that the gov rejected the guarantee requests mainly due to the worry on the high possibility that the money could not be returned and therefore become the burden of the tax-payers; rather than due to EU rule. Isn't this the case (both SM and the gov, in my memory, had never mentioned any EU rule as a problem)?

An interesting article, which relates the chance of gov support to Brexit results. Based on what the leaders of labour and conservative said in public, I thought it might be easier to get such support from a labour gov than a conservative gov; however, the author of the article had opposite opinion:
"Brexit - once Brexit is decided upon in terms of the outcome from the general election, then raising funds, particularly from foreign investors, will become a lot easier;
... government refused (in previous requests), partly due to the fact that the guarantee would have drawn scrutiny from the EU, so if the next government is a conservative government and takes the UK out of the EU, then there is much greater likelihood of some kind of tacit assistance from the government. If a Liberal Democrat government (unlikely) or remain coalition government ( - more likely) wins the next election, then it is likely that the UK is staying in the EU, and no tacit support is likely to be forthcoming."

Sirius Minerals plan to bring polyhalite to Teesside by lorry - but only 63 journeys allowed a day

The First Shipment, a very significant event, could happen well before the tunnel usable.

This is the first change of shorts after the Nov 11 RNS and provides a positive signal.
Lets see what would happen to the shorts in next few days; if such change continue then a short term up trend may emerge.
It would be great if the daily MACD lines could move up above zero in next few weeks.

wwguk: "SM must have been extremely disappointed and lost any hope for gov support; as in their new funding path has left no option for a packaged solution to raise the $600m + $2.5b together. Or, they must have got clear hint for a successful raise of the $600m from a combination of a (specific) strategy partner and financial investors (one of them specific)."

Another supporting evidence for the above hint is that in the letter to the PM, the local leaders/business man asked for the gov support (guarantee) to avoid the delay of the project, rather than to rescue the project from collapse (as these MPs have been in close contact with the company management and aware of the situation (relating to strategy partners and the 2 stage plan)). If this is really the case (plus the rumor on recruitment/re-man), then a new RNS on the strategic partner (and financial investors) could come sooner, e.g., before Xmas.
No matter how onerous terms of the raising might be, it would be much better than now or other worst cases for shareholders (being acquired or placed in adm).

casa: "The terms for that raise will be extremely onerous, after all it is high risk money with the prospect of no return unless the second element ,$2.5 billion is forthcoming."

SM must have been extremely disappointed and lost any hope for gov support; as in their new funding path has left no option for a packaged solution to raise the $600m + $2.5b together. Or, they must have got clear hint for a successful raised of the $600m from a combination of a (specific) strategy partner and financial investors (one of them specific).

I had expected SM would still leave an option for a full funding deal, similar two the previous bank group and JMP plans, that have the Chicken and Egg issue addressed; therefore, it becomes very easy to raise the first part (i.e., the $600m), evidenced by the previous $400m convertible bonds being oversubscribed multiple times of the required amount (as the lenders seeing the rest of the needed money committed; and the lenders of the second part of the money seeing the first part committed (or raised in escrow)).

The PM has said he would try his best to help, and the opposition lender also publicly expressed willingness to help. The new election might have provided SM a chance to try to make a full funding deal (involving the strategy partners and financial investor for the $600m, and uncovered and covered (by gov guarantee) loans from the bank group) again. As the new plan has the major concerns of the gov addressed (i.e., strategy partners and investors for the more dangerous parts, and the gov only covered the parts without the big risk, money return in three years after the full production); and most important the company is in desperate for help - all the IPA criteria met.

STRATEGIC REVIEW OBJECTIVES
o Maximise value to shareholders
o Minimise dilution

But on Monday analysts suggested that a new plan, put forward by boss Chris Fraser, could bring Christmas early for the shareholders, some of whom expected the value of their holding to be seriously damaged. “There are still many unknowns, but there may be scope for a much less dilutive solution than we had previously modelled,” said Richard Knights, an analyst at Liberum.

Sounds encouraging for the large number of existing shareholders!

The RNS mentioned the SBR for the service shaft has been assembled into modules that are ready to be placed and installed in the shaft. This should be the reason why it cannot be seen from distance (i.e., it will not be assembled into an over 40m tall structure as it was done for testing in Germany and placed into the shaft as whole; rather it will be placed and assembled in the shaft).

The following new article shows shows a part of SBR, one module at the bottom:
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/11/11/new-funding-plan-throws-lifeline-to-small-sirius-minerals-invest/

If the new 2 stage fundraising is successful, the new cost at the completing of the fundraising would be

cost: 0.2b (planning)+ 1.15b (st1)+0.425b (st2 share) + 0.6b (st2 initial)= $2.2b + $2.5b = $4.7b (£3.67b at exchange rate $1.28/£1)

The share count (in the worst case with 75% dilution for the $600 as mentioned my previous post): 22.65b shares

Cost per share: £3.57b/22.65b = 16.21p per share

If the fundraising of the two-stage plans are both successful, of course, the share price by then should be much higher than the cost per share.