Member Info for wwguk

Sorry, this was the old one.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273369-sirius-minerals-sruxf-ceo-chris-fraser-q2-progress-update-conference-transcript

Fred, the message reappeared, in an image in the Facebook account :)

Hi, Fred, so the name may be a real one and it should not be included it in our posts explicitly. Still hope the info is true though, as this is one of the ways to ensure the bond to be fully sold without dilution.

jonesrichard, I saw the post on gov support by Steve Watkiss some hours ago this afternoon. However, it seems to have been removed (or I went to a wrong place in the second visit?).

MP urges Prime Minister to support Whitby potash mine:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is being urged to support a North Yorkshire based company trying to secure funds to develop what would be the world's largest potash fertiliser mine.

Scarborough and Whitby's Conservative MP, Robert Goodwill, says he's made representations at "the highest possible level".

Any things leaked? or anyone can find anything on what happened?

GK: "... I don't think there is time left to change the offer. ..."

I gather what CF/JPM did first after the withdraw was to contact its major (big) investors, rather than to change the offer.
In the recent Times article, it mentioned cornerstone investors, i.e., those invested before or at the time SM went public. As SM has now more big institutional investors, including many from stage 1 and stage 2, they must have approached all the big ones for their support in the initial bond issuance (i.e., to commit certain amount by each of them to be used as backup, just in case there will be a shortfall from the h.y.bond purchasers in the U.S. market). They should have done this for more than one month by now, and would know how much such backup has been collected. If these are more than enough, they should have already started their revisit (as the market condition has been good enough in the early part of this month and if the withdraw was really due to the changing of the market condition).

If not or in parallel, they may also have had a try to contact gov/IPA and explored the possibility to add some amendments (e.g., warrants or gov guarantee) to the previous offer (as the previous offer is not in public domain, they do not have to issue RNS on the changes) .

Whichever the cases, they should have already started their revisit or should revisit very soon as the market condition is already better than what they had when they started the roadshow at the end of July.

Morning GK, thanks for the Ishares index for US high yield corporate.

Yes, all the charts we saw confirmed that the SM first visit was at the worst time (i.e., a rate spike) of the year. Since then, the rate dropped to a level lower than the beginning of the spike. The market condition on this regard has improved. CF mentioned that all the decision made is about a good execution (for the whole series of the h.y.bond tranches). As you mentioned the first is very important as it sets the tone for the following 5 to 7 tranches.

The market condition relating to the U.S and China trade war has also improved greatly. They resumed talks. More importantly, both sides have shown goodwill to each other: China will exempt many U.S. products, including agricultural products, from additional tariffs; while U.S. will delay tariffs to mid-October (i.e., after the 1st of Oct. Chinese national day celebration). The trade war has calmed down. There should be no problem in the rest of September.

Now seems to be a best time for the SM bond issuance.

The stock market condition is also very good. Actually, it becomes too good to keep the rising momentum (i.e., way overbought). There is a potential danger that if the Feb cut is not as expected (i.e., if it is 0.25% rather than 0.5%), or some other not so positive event happens, S&P 500 and DJIA may fail to reach new highs (to break the head-and-shoulder pattern), and instead drop sharply.

Hope the revisit will happen very quickly in next week, so as to take the advantage of the current good market conditions, and avoid the potential change of the market condition.

Market conditions as reflected by the trend of Fed rate reduction and the h.y.bond rate reduction are getting much better than that just after the Trump tweets. Feb is going to cut again in a few days and the average h.y.bond rate (as indicated by the CCC index) has dropped below the level seen before the 5th of August (now at 11.84% dropped from 12.49%).

The overall stock market, as reflected by S&P 500 and DJIA, rised sharply in past few weeks. It is also at the best level in these two months.

Now, it seems the best time to issue the SM bond (if these were the problems that stopped the issuance in the first visit).

However, the stock market has very likely reached a short term peak. The S&P proprietary short range oscillator (Cramer’s favorite market indicator, now at 8) is signaling stocks ‘way overbought’ (with -8 as way oversold). In addition, a head and shoulder pattern also starts to emerge. At such level, any negative event may trigger a sharp drop. If this happens, investors may take a risk off position again by moving out of stocks and moving into (low risk) investment grade bonds (rather than high risk h.y.bonds).

Therefore, SM/JPM should act quickly, better next week, as the stock market may change direction in next couple of (or next few) weeks.

Typo: "Polygon is now new" should be "Polygon is not new".

Jack, see my previous post. Polygon only added 0.03% on the 10th (to reach 0.52%), as it had 0.49% since 19 Jun 2019.

Jack, Polygon is now new. It had shorted for a long time (added and reduced from time to time). Most recent ones were:
0.49% 19 Jun 2019
0.52% 7 Jun 2019

The overall shorts above 0.5% reduced (from 5.81% to 5.63%):

HBK Investments L.P., reduced 0.21%, from 0.86% from 0.65% on September 11
Polygon Global Partners LLP, added 0.03%, from 0.49% to 0.52% on September 10

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

Bryce Elder:
The important things to remember with Sirius is that it's worth nearly nothing now, so moves get amplified, and it gets flung about by randoms on bulletin boards making stuff up.
Today's move seems to be on the idea that management has approached government about a bailout.
How that would work, and why government would think it's a good idea, I do not know.
But since we're on it, do read Antonia Cundy's excellent write from last month about the people who were bilked into putting their life savings into this thing: https://www.ft.com...-8a88-aa6628ac896c

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2019-09-12/

Citadel added 0.13%, now with 0.94%
HBK reduced (-0.10%), now with 0.86%
Total: 5.81% (increase slightly, i.e., 0.03%)

HBK reduction is significant, as it is one of the largest hedge funds in the world.
It established its short position after the bond withdraw, and then added, and now reduced yesterday, from these we can infer their sentiment on the bond market revisit.

There are again lots Buys (20m) reported after hours (not sure when and where they were happened), and they are much more than the canceled/corrected ones (i.e., those with a minus sign).

These indicate lots of trading /exchanging activities in big numbers just before the crucial dates for the bonds.

LSE: SXX Share Trades in Negative Volume, like something brought then returned?

Dillondog: "...Any thoughts on Highbridge dropping their short position by 0.33% . They are owned by JPM".

Highbridge had 2.70% in May, and had reduced a few times in past few months, to 2.26% by 4 September.
They are still the largest shorter (and a SM CB holder at the same time). As pointed by many, they shorted, in part, for hedging purpose. However, it is still encouraging to see they gradually reduced their shorts in recent months. Let's see if they would do this again ...

Cherokee101: "Jupiter sold 20m shares? Source?"

Hi, Cherokee. It is from the following website. The -0.29% is around 20m. No sure if it is up to date. I noticed that some numbers are not consistent across different sites.

Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. 307,701,931(-0.29%)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/ownership/fi-aoe827?ownershipType=institutional