RE: Prem21 Mar 2022 07:49
Everybody wants to know what their shares could be worth. On this occasion, I agree with Snowking....., people didn't invest because they thought the price would drop.
There are of course 3 pieces to the share price puzzle. Value of what is in the ground, how much it will cost to get it out, how many people share the profit (number of shares in distribution shareholders).
Value of what is in the ground, volume x unit cost. Would be nice to get some reserves updates. As much as technology advances, I believe this still holds some question marks until the shovels are out.
Cost seems to be a guessing game but we can come up with a worst-case scenario as a percentage of the product.
How many people, we know how many shares are in circulation.
I guess you have to throw in a stability factor, which is something likely to upset the supply and create an additional cost/reduce the value, like an unstable govt.
All in all, it may be a guess, but the better we know these 3 numbers, the better the guess is, so can add variables like a P10, P50, P90. Its still a guess but narrows it down surely.
I have heard many times that a rule of thumb for the value of a mine, once exploitation is approved, is 10% of the value of what is in the ground.
I'm interested to hear if anybody has an alternative to this or if in fact, you all think this is nonsense.
POSTED IN THE HOPE OF A SENSIBLE CONVERSATION, OR SOMEONE HIGHLIGHTING WHAT I HAVE MISSED RATHER THAN SOMEONE JUST SHOOTING IT DOWN AND SAY ITS BULL***T
Good luck all.