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I think there’s some very under researched posters on here.
Having traded at 19p+ this year and in light of the recent dilution but countered, hopefully, by a “significant” increase in production. Let’s say conservatively estimating once all up and running again at circa 3500bopd ( considerably less than current full potential ) against what looks to be a stable, if not increasing crude value of $80+ then it’s very reasonable to assume 15p is not an unreasonable figure at all, within the next 3-12 months. Some would argue that’s very low others very high. For me it’s a very fair target based on the facts.
One of those facts is that the sp is not reflective, at all, of the actual assets and current capability of production. Currently capped and reflected in the sp.
This is not including the JV and any upside that might bring.
As suspected, i think many here not fully aware of the implication of installing significant engineering changes. Quite obvious we would see substantial offline periods whilst the systems are installed and checked. Let's hope WTI holds or increases and see how things are when all systems go.
Many wells will have to be shut down. It's not simply plug and play.
What matters is what we are consistently achieving when everything showing green for go.
Excellent summary and much appreciated, I’ve slightly over estimated the capacity site wide then, but still very positive figures.
When copl got Atomic and posted 5000bopd achievable; it’s always obviously been a target. I’m expecting some issues with the GGS.. but hoping for at least 3000bopd EOY, so not far off your 2700. Looks relatively reasonable that oil should remain between the $70-90 region. Plenty of reports saying more but prefer an under promise over deliver approach.
With the amount of efforts regarding funding here, I hope that the team also are targeting 2500+ near term.
Especially with JV negotiations in play.
Thanks Eazy for that post
Also believe they are buys.
“The Company commenced upgrading its gas gathering system in the second quarter to debottleneck restrictions at certain well locations, to recover produced gas back to the gas plant and to reduce gas flaring. COPL is pleased to announce that the gas gathering system is functioning and was commissioned on time and under budget in July 2023”
Sorry to question this, been so busy lately.
Do we know if the entire GGS is now fully operational site wide and working as it should.
And If anyone has done so already, I’m trying to work out each wells full working capacity load limits? Trying to get a better picture of current production versus achievable production from current infrastructure.
Every share drifts innnews blackouts and will be traded and influenced as punts are made.
It’s quite clear that the only way we will see a sustained rise and rerate is web. The company proves itself.
This will only happen if the company can demonstrate it’s not a going concern. Is producing at much better levels and can easily service debts and or get a JV across the line.
Otherwise this is just a play thing for opportunists and punters and will continue to be so until it proves itself.
Sadly. Yet one still hopes that significant positive change is on its way.
I agree with the Harry. Certain I am not, historically speaking it’s been incredibly poor to date with let down after let down and many know I’m openly both disgruntled and also considerably down on my investment, even having increased my holding 10 fold over the years..
But why borrow so much and acquire so much asset if a no go.
Art has done his best but it wasn’t enough, it’s a tough game. It’s needed tough decisions, and it’s been painful. But we are still here.
High pressures countered with upgrading infrastructure, acquiring permits to flare. New discoveries being validated, additional borrowing to get neighbouring lands creating greater opportunities and ownerships. But the battle has been negotiating debt and deals against currently low production.
But as soon as we can operate at capacity the picture changes quickly. Probably very.
Clearly negotiating with low production for borrowing and or a partner has been complicated and we’ve been very vulnerable.
A JVP will understand the tightrope we walk but also know that our position grows stronger with every extra barrel achieved and alongside a strong crude price.
I’m not afraid to speak out about the negatives, I hold a large number of shares and at a loss. So I’m annoyed and rightly so! We’ve been led down the garden path a bit.
But surely, if the new systems work and we announce a partner that is is mutually beneficial then things should start to look much better.
I’m waiting for the days when when we see blue everyday rather than red! it’s been a long road down but it should be an even longer up if they can pull it off.
End of the day, simply it’s all about profits exceeding total debt and costs.
As stas says, we should get an update on how that side of things is going. Let’s hope it’s backed up with positive wording.
Bob I suppose a current risk would be how well the upgrades have gone. In regards to GGS etc, the odds are quite high there will be, has been teething problems / issues.
Of course the good news to that is we have flaring permissions to cope with the high pressures and mitigate some risk.
However it seems clear the company is working with an obvious goal of making it work, however frustrating it is waiting.
We know we can produce, we know we have accessible and extraditable resources and placed in a very good position for it all, geographically & infrastructure wise.
I doubt we would have got more borrowing had the potential not been likely.
Of course, it’s incredibly difficult to be invested with so many unknowns and carrots always present.
But the recent LOI, board change up does still hint that we are once again on the cusp.
It will be a battle between COPL & any JV partner/s to come to agree on both sides to compromise but there are countless benchmarks for which such deals have been made. Not to mention Legal stuff takes ages!
Thankfully we have a decent crude prices to counter our current poor production levels and obviously it’s in the companies best interest to improve that, both for cash flow & negotiations.
It is however just a shame public relations are so poor here. Understandable in someways but also very disrespectful and unmindful of its effect on the general market.
Still, although I could easily be incredibly negative about things, I’m still hopeful this will get better.
My main concern for a while has been the contempt for investors and what that might mean moving forwards.
It would be very good to get an interview to steady the ship.
Ps, to all decent posters. This week try and make efforts not to get sucked into school yard debates, just ignore obviously distributive posters, don’t become one. So much more effective. And see how much better this forum would be.
The fact they’ve organised so much borrowing and acquired additional assets / discoveries.
Stas, the company should, logically, be planning to make it work.
It might be nearing 3 years since we thought that might happen but.. maybe it’s close.
We just need them to be able to release news that is unquestionably positive for once. No double edged swords but sentiment and cash flow repairing instead.
Surely, after everything it must be due.
Will we get news this week, and by that I mean something that really finally gets think to rerate.
Surely, after all this time we must be close.
We’ve had a fair share of knock downs, can we get a few pick me ups please.
Buy oil. Look at the price just before the “going concern” RNS.
Then adjust the sp according to the dilution that came next against it.
The price isn’t 3p.
Copl has suffered from terrible sentiment due to complete lack of coms and a series of lies ( publicly documented, one being a no placing interview swiftly followed by a huge placing ) this sort of thing has happened often.
Just look at the RNS versus Sp.
You will notice every piece of news is followed by a significant fall in value.
Partly this is due to growing the business, grabbing as much asset as possible but countered by some absolutely terrible borrowing matches with misguiding information from Art.
Ifs pretty obvious that COPL need to:
- stop diluting.
- increase production
- secure better financing ( either by the unicorn RBL that we got told would be complete a year ago.. or via this potential JV )
- seriously make efforts to change sentiment.
The market views COPL as both a lifestyle company and also have priced it to fail.
A handful of us have been here for years now and still waiting for it to do what it’s supposed to.
That’s get production up so we are cash positive and self financing to make the most of a 40 year incline curve.
To date it’s been awful. It is what it is.
The time has come for COPL to get serious and start delivering. No real investor wants to get involved with this company until they start showing the market that they actually intend to support shareholders! At the moment it’s all punters and traders.
Big money will come when COPL prove themselves.
We continue to wait.
It’s a little creepy when multiple posters who are clearly the same person like to fall in love and congratulate themselves on these boards.
Ps I know this as I’m a paid troll, I’ve already made over £1 this morning
FR that’s simply incorrect.
This is why shares drift between news…
Small sells make a difference in quantity. Even a few sells can drop a percent or two.
It’s just mms making a market.
It’s fundamental.
Before social media and trading on phones it was very different.
A few £500 £1000 buys or sells can easily happen if someone is talked in, or out of a share because they use a forum as valid research..
The same people who believe news stories on Facebook etc.
It didn’t used to happen but now everyone can make a trade and there’s a lot of algorithms trading now.
This is why copl fail, the coms are so poor it allows the sp to drift due to low sentiment. A lot of old companies have no idea how much social media etc can effect an sp.
Ha yes would be so nice to retire from being a troll, this whole 50p a post thing just isn’t paying the bills lol
Interestingly stas that the 50p value placed by Art was current for that time, not including high pressure upgrades and subsequent potential output. But say 25p then for arguments sake. I can’t remember exactly what production was at the 50p comment but it can’t of been much more than 800-1200?
So if we can get between 1200-3000 by EOY ( a second year waiting for substantial change by EOY… ) then it’s probably back to around the 50p figure including dilution.
But we are struggling to hold 3p. 50p is what, a 16 “bag” from here now. That’s a lot. ( of course getting to 150 used to be only a couple of bags… just shows what a crashing sp can do to getting back to value!!
Anyway. 25-50p still seems a reasonable target to me, even if it seems outrageous to think when we at 3p. Perhaps I’m just and always have been delusional with this company.
A buy out at 5x our current sp would be 15p. So it would be a steal.
A 10x sp takeover would be low ball.
Be so good to get some clarity on up to date actual production ( and full capability ) and the JV.