RE: Valuations23 Jan 2022 13:56
Ok so here we are, I’m all our different guises. And all so what agreed for arguments sake or fair value without discovery of £1 - £3
The new discovery we are all reckoning prices, again for arguments sake from £3 - £30
Now short term we should be looking to attack £1 just to get close to what we already have.
Short term we also may confirm a huge oil discovery.
Long term that discovery has the potential to bring us those higher estimates 1-3 years say.
Arthur is only 54 years old and on a good salary of nearly 400k a year, not including his share option value and personal assets. Basically he’s alright for cash.
I don’t think he will be selling this company at this stage or soon unless it’s a very, very good price. I think he wants to become a proper oil man leading his own major company and retire / sell, feeling like he achieved his goal.
Which is why I’ve been thinking he might do or has done another placing ( he’s got new drills to fund, licences to acquire and Cuda to buy, manage his borrowing and running costs etc etc, plus it’s been a cold winter with lower production. For now.
He’s not going to hang around to save up bit by bit. He will want to go full throttle.
Right now the market has our lower production figures, a unverified discovery and a history to look upon, recent placing shares to shift and also Atomics owner cashing in his shares as well from the sale. And this is all set to change in a heartbeat.
I guess what I’m saying is there is only really two options if this cpr confirms what he said.
1) we go it alone, have a few raises on the way up and within 2-4 years look back from many multiples. Easily £10 _ £15 share even with more dilution. Now, 10k invested now to be cashed in at those figures is a seriously good return for waiting a year or two.
2) Majors, the real financial guys looking at the risk / reward here, the big companies. This is on the radar, it has to be. They will be watching and talking and planning, and are most likely. There is a real chance of a takeover or JV etc, but Art won’t be giving it away, he is not a stupid man.
3) “acts of god’ will always be there, there is always a complete unknown that can change anything. And can’t be planned for. However climate change will increase the oil price as sea level sites are lost or abandoned. Countries will look to produce more on their own lands. Oil is here for a decade easy. Too many vehicles and needs for it not to be a commodity for a good while yet. The transition to new energy is coming but it comes way past our peak operation targets a few years away!
As so many shares in private hands I feel the real short term risk is looking past the short term manipulation and holding on to your holding. Stop losses will be attacked I’m sure.
In conclusion, for my Sunday thinking, and for the above, we must be at the edge of some real major change.
Nigeria always lurking.
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