Member Info for Wolster

I suppose it depends on your viewpoint of how attractive the assets of the company are to other oil companies (not MM's/II's or other shareholders) as the game we are now in, is do we think an oil company would buy us right now.

So obviously oil companies (along with a great many other companies) are worth less in a recession & if we take worse case senario we are in one. As long as we all know (inc BOD) we wont get top dollar for our assets & trim our expectations accordingly then you would expect our aging BOD to be more inclined to sell.

Ok so what do oil companies want during a recession.

I would say low cost produced oil, transport cost reductions & big oil hits vs scrabbling around for less cost effective dregs.

We offer all those things via OBA, CPO-5 & are in a stable oil producing nation to boot.

Therefore I say we are attractive, as long as all parties are reasonable a sale is probable & given the likely £ drop during this process all parties may get rewarded well.

As for the SP during the process you would expect the offers to be the base, but otherwise will fluctuate alot.

Spread low all day & bot transactions struggling to ring any shares out of anyone.

Seems quite tight, surprising after last few days upward march.

115k shares bought in 4 mins @ 11.27am share move up 0.04p lol.

Any bets on closing drop.

I'll go with a drop of 0.50p from day trading average, same as every other bloody day lol.

In addition it does bug me that ONGC have done all of the following:-

-Dragged their feet over all drilling past & current
-On finding decent oil (on 2 separate strikes) immediatley pulled up sticks & sodded off (at remarkable speed) into the wilderness (without really finding out what they found)
-Whilst using the same pad as indico (& drilling in the direction of wilderness) felt the need to turn off production - how convienient (we really couldn't have forseen this & moved the drill sight a little more distant)
-When heading back to Indico after our wilderness trip, dragged our feet as slow as possible(omg we really dont wanna find more oil yet)

Whilst we 30% ers just bemoan their slow methodology & quaint old world workings, no chance they are robbing us blind, screw them. Get that feckin spud done u lazy(clever) gits.

For all we know everything except CPO-5 is for sale.

Why on earth would we sell CPO-5 when the next drill(s) is(are) likely to be massive.

If it were me, I'd tell the world (ONGC) that its off the sale table until that rig has peppered Indico (& found OWC at a minimum) so delay your drill as long as you like, we aint selling it till we know whats down there, its safely in its own subsidiary company anyway.

As for the rest, sell & keep the shareholders happy

I doubt a single investor in Amerisur really wants to lose our lake of oil for chump change, a couple of months short of the bonanza.

I say ONGC make your decent offer or we begin dialing up the political pressure from our friend (El Presidenti & local media) about how the wealth of Columbia is being held hostage by a bunch of medieval forigners, who really need to be removed from the process, Oh & btw the tiny 30% holders of the plot are ready to ramp up the drill count & send the place into orbit & have just sold 4/5ths of their company & while they were just about to send a divy out to all shareholders instead thought sod it lets use this cash & buy out 70% of the rest of the field.

I know Ive gone off at an angle but you never know the games that could yet be played :)

Well they really wanted to pegg that at 18.5p at the end no matter how many buys were flooding in.

I think it depends on time frame for me.

RE anything before 31st October stays in dollar safe assets.

After well ill see what bargins can be found.

Its now the second time the BOD have expressly said, do not sell you will be sorry.

The fisrt time you may have thought in response to the laughable 17p offer - & therefore write off comment.

But the second time ......

Not to mention delaying till 31st October 2019 Brexit Pound shock could suit all parties.

We get spud news/results, they get the extra funds to pay for it via better exchange rates.

Everyone is a winner.

The MM's appear to be testing our resolve today, on the back of lower oil prices, no spud news & no offer news.

Don't they realise they are dealing with a hardened core who stuck with this at 12p fake value, or maybe they think we are all in & carn't accumulate further - a spent force.

Plenty of II's slowly accumulating, means nothing to worry about here imo.

I just keep adding + small bits of trading with a purpose to add more.

I'm determined to get my pay out after all this time from this company.

Seems the MM's are being extra cautious today, prolly Trump tariff talk unsettled them across whole oil sector.

Thankfully we are in the bid process otherwise another cream crackering would've been inbound.

In such a senario, wouldn't the II's involved in the deal be aquiring under the radar.

Therefore not welcome the open bid process.

rossannan

25p trot out W*****

Whilst puitting that asset valuation up, I am not suggesting we will get that figure.

Merely thats the bargin these bidders maybe playing for, even as they low ball up & the management high ball down.

Personally if the bids stalls at 25p I worry the management will walk from the table (& the SP nosedives) as soon as we get beyond 25p I reckon the deal is on & the risk comes off the table of a collapse.

After 25p im in till the end game, I wont care what the end deal will be, just reckon past 25p we are onto a winner.

As requested

As per ColonelDrake:-(+edits from me)

Rough Calcs

1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative)
2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m
3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m
4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below)
5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)

Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m)
Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m)
Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised)
Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)

I also posted :-

Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.

Regarding the Oxy valuation.

The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-

Our 50% should read $93m + $19m = $112m+(5%Control est) + (5%highest bid est) = $124m

+The Credit for the bit we sold $93m + $19m = $112m less cash recieved $19m = $93m Oxy Credit.

Therefore the total is more likely $124m + $93m = $217m (less any 50% of any OXY spends incurred (no idea if they done much yet)).

That total includes nothing but the OXY involved land.

Ofc the CPO-5 30% is already packaged in a separate subsidiary company.

So in theory it could be split off quite easily from the whole.

Obviously I can not send the email, my spelling is awful, when my boss wanders past my desk.

Per BBC news (Pherhaps soomeone ought to send them an Email - Amerisur low cost producer :)

French energy company Total plans to assets worth around $5bn (£4bn) to focus on low projects that can withstand low oil prices.

It made the announcement as it reported a 19% drop in underlying second quarter profits, in part because of the low oil prices compared with the second quarter of 2018.

"Markets remained volatile with Brent averaging $69 per barrel in the second quarter, an increase of 9% compared to the previous quarter but natural gas prices were down 36% in Europe and 26% in Asia," Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive, said.

Cheers.

Last Friday was the most panicked Ive been in awhile moving investments about at speed.

Extra minutes are very necessary at times.