Member Info for WolfofWarks

2018

Month Cumulative Gross % of Year Releases Average Average Drop #1 Release Gross % of Total
December $1,191,105,506 10.3% 60 $19,851,758 -31.7% Aquaman $335,061,807 28.1%
November $1,401,803,039 12.1% 81 $17,306,210 -8.3% The Grinch $270,620,950 19.3%
October $797,336,253 6.9% 82 $9,723,612 -31.4% A Star Is Born $215,288,866 27%
September $607,020,013 5.2% 92 $6,598,043 -24% The Nun $117,450,119 19.3%
August $746,836,329 6.4% 84 $8,890,908 -32.1% Crazy Rich Asians $174,532,921 23.4%
July $1,057,492,397 9.1% 55 $19,227,134 -25.1% Mission: Impossible - Fallout $220,159,104 20.8%
June $1,504,755,724 13% 74 $20,334,536 -23.2% Incredibles 2 $608,581,744 40.4%
May $815,708,876 7% 66 $12,359,225 -12.4% Deadpool 2 $318,491,426 39%
April $1,228,204,805 10.6% 76 $16,160,589 -36.3% Avengers: Infinity War $678,815,482 55.3%
March $785,605,664 6.8% 86 $9,134,949 -11% Ready Player One $137,690,172 17.5%
February $1,122,522,198 9.7% 65 $17,269,572 -34.7% Black Panther $700,059,566 62.4%
January $351,971,197 3% 51 $6,901,396 -42.4% Insidious: The Last Key $67,745,330 19.2%

Tegop - you haven’t even got your seasonality right. Have a look at that BoJo site.

August is one if the poorest months.

2019

Month Cumulative Gross % of Year Releases Average Average Drop #1 Release Gross % of Total
December $1,366,977,654 11.9% 45 $30,377,281 -34.6% Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker $515,202,542 37.7%
November $1,247,209,603 10.9% 76 $16,410,652 -40.1% Frozen II $477,373,578 38.3%
October $866,395,003 7.6% 71 $12,202,746 -27.7% Joker $335,451,311 38.7%
September $623,557,823 5.4% 68 $9,169,967 -27.1% It Chapter Two $211,593,228 33.9%
August $730,102,450 6.4% 81 $9,013,610 -14.4% Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw $173,956,935 23.8%
July $1,203,544,975 10.5% 53 $22,708,395 -15.7% The Lion King $543,638,043 45.2%
June $991,015,842 8.7% 58 $17,086,480 -9.8% Toy Story 4 $434,038,008 43.8%
May $1,154,972,357 10.1% 83 $13,915,329 -23.4% Aladdin $355,559,216 30.8%
April $1,278,903,638 11.2% 72 $17,762,550 -34.2% Avengers: Endgame $858,373,000 67.1%
March $979,350,168 8.6% 89 $11,003,934 -17.1% Captain Marvel $426,829,839 43.6%
February $608,007,220 5.3% 51 $11,921,710 -23.6% How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $160,799,505 26.4%
January $393,903,804 3.4% 45 $8,753,417 -30.5% Glass $111,048,468 28.2%

Hi Tegop - are the earlier figures in 2022 covid affected?

It would be interesting to see similar numbers for 2018 & 2019.

‘ But clearly summer doubling the revenue of jan or feb is not a pipe dream as you put it.’

Come on Tegop - that’s not what I said. I said the $4bn was a pipe dream not the seasonality. You could be a politician with all these pivots :)

'Here is 2022 January to July. Source: Boxoffice mojo

July $1,133,500,919 15.4% 91 $12,456,054 Minions: The Rise of Gru $320,494,170 28.3%
June $968,869,952 13.1% 94 $10,307,127 Top Gun: Maverick $362,159,641 37.4%
May $785,885,790 10.7% 88 $8,930,520 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $376,528,475 47.9%
April $571,022,697 7.7% 96 $5,948,153 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $157,528,706 27.6%
March $589,385,878 8% 96 $6,139,436 The Batman $338,200,421 57.4%
February $365,862,371 5% 80 $4,573,279 Uncharted $84,618,436 23.1%
January $389,782,780'

So if this is presumably the global numbers how much of this accrues to Cineworld?

I went to see Minions and Sonic. I went to see Lightyear as well - thought that would be on the list.

'They do not report losses just to hide from their shareholders that they are secretly profitable'

I wasn't suggesting for a moment they were!

As I said before we were talking about the producers to start with, not the streamers. You've gone off piste.

Tegop - you'll be able to find out their financials - they must have underlying companies behind them.

Tegop - I simply used an average. You're going to need massive turnover in the summer then - double current numbers, to make it to $4bn.

Disney, Paramount and HBO are not pure streaming services.

Plus we were talking about whether or not the producers were making money originally.

Tegop - it's easy maths. $4bn by twelve months is $333m per month. December and January were both in the $200m to £220m mark.

December's margin dropped 3.5% though from November and then recovered in January.

'Star wars and LOTR are corporate trying to extract as much value from IP as possible. '

This describes the whole of cinema for the last one years

'Streaming is a loss making endevour for studios not named netflix and will continue to be so.'

Do you know this for a fact? Do you know how their finance model has adapted and changed to take in PPV model and royalties associated with broadcast rather than theatre?

Do you honestly believe with the amount of content going onto streaming platforms that no one is making any money? What about Apple, Amazon, etc? Surely they are paying the producers for their content.

If the incentive to make good original films didn't work pre covid, I'm not so sure what's so different this time round. What are these new original films on the horizon? We roughly know the slate for the next year or so right?

'The problem is that you are seeing movies as only the franchises. There is more to movies than fast and furious 12 or something. I already lost count.

New creative writers, directors, actor, studios, etc will make more new movies. Some surprise hits or new series of movies will show up. A new genre or an enhanced experience with the help of new tech like IMAX or 3/4DX. Spending per person can and will increase.

CINE is estimated to have around 4B rev on 2023. Not pre pandemic level, but close to profitable. Source:stock pedia'

Tegop - the problem here is that Cinema hasn't been anything other than franchises for a very long time. It's lost its mojo. I've said it before not necessarily it's own fault as box sets and Netflix, etc, have come into prominence and where those production dollars go has been shifted. For example we now have Star Wars and LOTR series rather than films. Hopefully that changes.

$4bn revenue for 2023 looks a pipe dream from here. You're talking over a 50% increase in turnover per month from the improved December/January months based on the revenue in the monthly operating reports.

That’s a very good post

The thing is though the company won’t exist ins its current form to pay out any settlement.

That reference will be in relation to the ongoing Regal claim, which I think I’m right in saying still hasn’t been settled fully.

'The lenders, in my view are perfectly capable of doing multiple/hybrid deals and will be looking at 3 to 5 year business cycles. They will be as influenced by trajectories and projections as any mature, sensible investor can be. As with any other business, including banks - Lol . If they are convinced of potential turn-around they are quite likely to consider a renegotiated survival package, if they can agree upon anything. '

Be that as it may, you're talking about a turnaround needed to wipe out a debt the size of the market cap of Sainsbury's or Next. I think the viability of this going forward requires the film industry to adjust and adapt from the current franchise model to bring back some originality in the content in order to bring in a wider crowd past Marvel fans.

My understanding was that they are locked onto a lot of these bonds and they are not easily sellable. Pretty stupid to put so many of your eggs into one basket.

Plus I take it you mean SVB and not the Swiss National Bank!

Ian - Do you think the tiny amount of money they have most likely already have written off will be weighing heavily on the minds of the CS board here?

They are also part of the ad hoc group so are first lien. You get that much stuff repeatedly wrong that I actually think you might be on a massive wind up here.

Cineworld doesn't have a dissenting shareholders action so it's clearly in reference to the regal case.

That's awfully naive Warren. There is plenty of information about. Forecasts, operating statements, presentations, etc, etc. While they don't give you a year end accounts pack they can certainly give someone with a decent financial or accountancy understanding a reasonable picture of what is going on.

If you only ever draw your information from published account you're always going to be well behind the curve.

It’s not that simple though Tegop. Unless you know the exact contents on what they are referring to. If you look at some of the other legal bills it looks like they always have a draft RNS on the go which they must adapt and change as circumstances change. Remember once they know something concrete they are bound by rapidly having to deliver an RNS before.