Member Info for WolfofWarks

This will affect the younger home owners quite dramatically where they have stretched themselves to get on the ladder in the first place.

However the time value of money is kind on those with mortgages so anyone who is ten years plus through their mortgage is probably very comfortable with it as a % of there total income and take a hit on increased interest payments.

A lot of folk have been overpaying for years while money has been cheap. Overpayments have jumped up quite a bit as well as interest rates have gone up as people try and clear down more loan before their remortgage falls due.

'I trust you're not suggesting Ian H just makes stuff up as he goes along?'

Perish the thought :)

Ian - you’re talking absolute rubbish.

So how do you know they have applied then? To which UK authority?

Why would they need to apply to the Canadians, CW doesn’t trade in Canada does it?

'The elephant in the room which the judge is ignoring for now and also pushing for a sale. Is that the UK and Canada have not approved chapter 11. Cineworld applied for them to approve this. They are yet to respond. Both cannot approve this, as this will open the floodgates for other businesses to use this path to try and negotiate with their lenders.
So unless this is sold, with shareholder approval. This will end up in the courts for years to come .'

Who has to approve it Ian? Where have Cineworlds applied? Which docket is this? Who hasn't responded?

There's been no love lost between me and Elvis in all fairness.

Unless you're suggesting there is some contrived good cop bad cop routine which is quite frankly ridiculous.

The studios should be getting paid for post petition work as that is what the DIP is for. CW will still be around afterwards it’s only the ownership that is changing.

The current shares won’t exist though as everything moves to newco. The SP is irrelevant.

Elvis - the roadmap to normal conditions is still two years away. Investors do not apply premium valuations to equity in times of high interest rates and inflation. Surely you've come across DCF before?

Cineplex will get pennies in the pound as an unsecured creditor.

I think maybe a token slice of Newco at the judge's insistence but CW think this is not expected to happen per the RNS. I think ROW is probably the bit most likely to be sold and it appears from the court session that's were buyers interest is.

Elvis - I read the SOW they are indeed advising on the D4E transaction. I think they'll both happen though. Some of the assets will be sold and D4E in whatever is left on whatever debt remains.

This is where you'll also understand why they were taking tax advice all throughout the process as part of their planning.

I always thought it was more of a USA thing.

Tegop - there is no equity in just the C11 group. The equity will be at the plc level which is why you will be diluted . The C11 group is for the purposes of the automatic stay from legal action by creditors.

The RNS is pretty much telling you that the lenders are expected to take all of the equity.

Elvis - a recovered CW back to pre pandemic levels of profitability might get $4bn if you used a PE ratio of 10-15 times. But they would be dependent on how many business they end up keeping to reach that level of profitability.

Evraz - It matters not a jot regarding what Russia is doing - the shares are held in the UK stock exchange. If you read the latest trading update you will know that the sanctions have effectively tied the boards hands behind their back, So if you think they can transfer or sell the current Plc shares into a new overseas company then I'll have some of what you are smoking.

Tegop - a valuation is not used - it's whatever anyone is prepared to pay for it.

Tegop Amazon Prime is an all encompassing package - you get next day, free delivery, etc, plus other benefits. So it's hard to quantify whether it makes them any money or not I expect because the subscription covers a multitude of sins.

The takeover code wouldn't apply in event of an asset sale because the company is not being taken away. The assets can be sold without shareholder approval because the company is in bankruptcy proceedings and shareholders do not have any power - the creditors are in control of the proceedings.

Elvis - I can't think of any modern method of valuation that would have the value of the company anywhere near $6bn. Not on assets, PE ratio, etc.

The shares are basically now penny stock trading. Posters like Sharable, Maid, Poor, etc, will ramp this up and then leave as soon as they make a bag. So there is a market for the shares as long as PIs continue to be happy with the risk.

Also re the family trust loans they are nothing to do with CW as they are contained within Mooky's family holdings structure. The only reason anyone knows about them is because the FT did the digging around the time of the C11. The loans were not made to the company and are nowhere in any of the previous accounts or debt information contained in the C11 dockets.

Revenue is returning 2025. I'd hope profitability would return before then - which is why I was pushing RI for an answer on the box office break even point.

The MGM deal was done a couple of years ago I think so it's not a recent development necessarily anything related to their theatrical ambitions. I'd say they were more buying the James Bond back catalogue and royalties associated for Prime.

'77blackbridge, Cinema is an experience, nothing at home can replace it. Your big screen TV, with you sat by yourself, in your living room, is not an experience. Take the Mrs or girlfriend out to the cinema and you will see the difference.'

No one would dispute that. The questions is how does that rank compared to other forms of social entertainment (eating, bowling, experience venues, etc) and does the quality of films, given how much money has been diverted into streaming, increase sufficiently to make people want to go and make Cinema's profitable again.

'No, streaming will not replace Cinema. They will coexist.'

I agree. I just find this idea that Cinema is on some massive upward momentum doesn't ring true. It's trying to recover back to where it was 4 years ago and CW themselves in the interims so not expect this to happen to 2025. So that's six years of zero growth.

The idea that Wall Street has fallen out of love with Streaming makes me chuckle. Disney, Netflix, Amazon, etc, are still pouring billions of $ into streaming. the $1bn amazon are putting in is out of a £14bn entertainment budget. Who gets the rest - music and streaming. There is no fact in 'Fact is'.

So RI, one for you, given what you've put below:

1) Why are Amazon allocating such a small amount of their budget to theatrical releases?
2) Given the resurgence in Cinema why are buyers not lining up to take over the whole of CW and AMC? Surely D4E shouldn't be in the picture.
3) How much of the box office revenue accrues to CW and what margin from there do they need to breakeven?

I quite respect you so lease drop the 'shorters/FUD' narrative, makes you sound like Maid it.

‘ how boring. sitting at home watching films on your big screen tv. drinking cans beer from Tesco. I would like to think people have more of a life than that’

You’re looking at it from a younger persons perspective.

What about those with families , older folk, etc.

Poor - for me the death of cinema isn't necessarily about streaming. It's the emergence of the box set as a phenomenon and the lack of originality with films. The upcoming slate is sequels into the 3/4/5's. Movies are basically franchised out now. It's a bit like the Fifa games on the playstation.

Cinema is the best way to watch a film, they just need to be re-imagined though.