RE: Prospects2 Apr 2023 17:45
I was in a meeting the other day and it just so happened indirectly that an investment banker from JPM in the US ended up on the call. He was advising us on the likely decrease in interest rates that will be coming as part of our turnover is connected with the construction industry. His thesis is that the current level of debt in the system is not sustainable at the current level of interest rates and the stress that we have seen with the smaller regional banks and CS/DB is only the start potentially if interest rates continue to rise. So I think at the first signs of this coming into fruition this will be a buy for definite.
I was reading in the IC the other day the PSN are particularly exposed to the ending of HTB due to them being at the lower end of the housing market, which at the time I thought would actually be a positive catalyst. Other HBs in the mid to upper markets customers tend to be less reliant on low deposit mortgages, have more equity, cash deposit, etc.
So this is one taking a more prominent position on the watchlist. Other positive catalysts are rental properties dropping off the market, meaning rents are increasing even higher than inflation and there will be an increased compulsion to go that extra mile for FTB to get on the ladder.