Member Info for WolfofWarks

I think he's been watching too much Erin Brockovich.

Even point 3) is problematic.

Has he even verified the shareholders. At the minute he’s looking to commence legal action based on a list from unverified random blokes off the internet who as soon as they realise these lawyers charge hundreds of pounds an hour will be gone in a flash.

Hi Penta that’s correct. Anything post petition is being paid from the dip funds so everything being fought over relates to pre C11. So ongoing costa are being paid and the business has had continuity throughout, albeit everything being paid out has to be approved by the court.

AMC are not a bankrupt company in C11 proceedings.

You’re not comparing apples with apples.

They should be as they are all in the same class.

‘4. If the Equity is “in the money”, meaning that the valuation exceeds Debt, they see a fair chance of success and of pushing back the RSA’

You are absolutely screwed on this one. If the valuation exceeded the debt the company would have been sold already. Keep saying it - the maths doesn’t work.

Just to mention that the supplier are now being paid for the post c11 bills as that’s what the dip money is for, although they did say in the 4th Jan presentation that they were delaying and structuring payments to aid cash flow. I’d expect this to be property related ie rents, service charge, etc, as they wouldn’t want the large producers pulling their services.

That’s not a C11 though maid.

Why’s he dressed like an anaesthetist?

‘ Is Mooky not going to be part of the corporate board?’

This is the unknown. According to the RSA the board has yet to he appointed - which makes sense as this hasn’t been stamped with approval yet although at this stage I think it’s a relative formality in the light of there being no viable options.

They what makes all these letters to solicitors and accusations of misrepresentations all the more ludicrous.

Patience won’t see any of the relevant points though as he has shut himself off to everything that isn’t hopium.

This is what happens with unsecured debt though. It’s the risk you take when dealing with other companies and their boards no that without security there is little hope of a recovery.

Hi Penta - the biggest unsecured creditors are cineplex ($?bn) and BNY melon ($213bn). Then after them it’s the trade vendors like landlords, producers, concession manufacturers, etc.

There was an initial list from the CW ledger on the kroll site but it got added to as more parties come forward to make their claim.

Hi Tegop - if you’re interested in the academic theory around this look up the ‘efficient market hypothesis’.

The unsecured creditors are getting shafted. They are owned over $1bn and are getting $20m.

They’ll be happy with that thou go because they’ll know how these things work and would have only expected cents in the dollar anyway. They would have already have written the money off in their accounts.

‘Wolf - i agree, the haircut is significant, but in short, they are getting a business that can potentially recoup it all at a resale. their 4b lost can be recovered once cine is done & dusted. ‘

This is speculative though, it’s by no means a certainty.

Regarding the 4% the lenders are not going to let £160m go - they are not a charity or the government. If they were to let that go it would be down to the unsecured lenders who are next in the queue. Like I said before the maths doesn’t work.

Penta - the problem here mate like I said in the other thread is the size of rhe haircut the secured lenders are being asked to take. Those secure lenders also have absolute control of the voting process. Something like 83% of the first lien class and then I think it was 63% of the next class.

In voting terms no one can beat them.

I don’t think they’ll be putting up $2.2bn themselves. I’m sure they’ll sell a bond to their underlying investors or go to the market.

I expect they’ll get their money back by selling or IPOing in 3-5 years time after they have turned it around. Then it becomes about recovery from covid, new golden age, etc, etc.

‘ Wolf - with your experience - is there no room for debate from the judge ? Are plans always just approved? or is there a back & forth after inital proposal?’

For me the maths doesn’t work. If you look at the amounts the senior lenders are having to write off how can they justify giving shareholders and unsecured creditors anything under the mechanism they are working to.

If there is a slight chance of compassion from the judge it would be that these shares have largely passed from iis into the hands of pis who are now sitting on huge losses. In my experience there’s little sentiment in business and the judge has to follow the process.

Bottom line the debts are too big evidenced by the slither the unsecured creditors have been given, something derisory like $20m.

‘ I would say it's easy and acceptable by some to be critical in certain situations when you are not on the receiving end. This guy is trying to do all he can to not only try all avenues open to him but in his attempt to do this he is also helping others to try and achieve what he is trying g for himself.
Good luck ?? to him’

I’d reserve judgement till you see the quote for the legal fees. Someone offered to chuck in two grand yesterday. That’ll get you a letter and two phones calls.

Waffen - at no point have I said cineworld will go out if business, at current levels even on the 2027 projection CW wouldn’t have cleared the debt interest. Do I think this is the golden age of cinema - no. Do I think there’s a viable business underneath debt free - yes. From the outset of c11 I have pretty much set out exactly what has happened . Not by being Nostradamus but by researching c11 process and crunching the numbers and having a financial background including experience of dealing customers and suppliers who have gone under.

The judges options are sign the agreement or let the company go out of business. There are no other way the numbers work and the company has told you this on numerous occasions.