Member Info for WolfofWarks

Mooky is a director so he is restricted on when he can sell, particularly if he is in receipt of information that is not in the public domain, more so the point who would want to buy them knowing what's coming up?

So it's unlikely that he would have been able to get out even if he wanted to. It's also been reported that his holding here has been used as collateral for other loans within his ownership structure so he's potentially not in control of them anyway.

The problem Mooky has now is he is someone who is trustworthy enough to contract with?

He's pulling out of leases, the Cineplex deal and now advertising contracts.

It's hard to see any resolution that doesn't involve the creation of Newco, which would be a disaster for existing holders.

To be completely honest with you I don’t see how they have a position of strength. Without the DIP they would be bankrupt. They can’t refinance with the current structure and all credit is maxed out.

“ @bullsbears
The Greidinger family own 20.08% of CINE, so the CEO's interests are aligned with ours. If he "did shareholders over", he would harm his own family.”

That would be dependant on what he could potentially walk away with after the D4E. There’s reports of him buying out the ROW business if I recall correctly.

Can’t remember what the source was but someone posted it here last week.

It’s be more close to $6bn with the current DIP draw down.

MIKODX - I think you would be pushed for the whole debt free enterprise to be with $3bn let alone just Regal.

I think if this transaction happened you would see the CP claim disappear and the secured lenders partly appeased. They would still want their pound of flesh for the rest of the group though.

TFG - do you think there is any chance of a value trap in those names though given we are likely heading into recession?

I started a position in PSN in the summer thinking we had hit the bottom and am about 30% down. Just waiting for a bottom now to add but think we are a long way off in these consumer/inflation sensitive companies.

Hi Grey - Sentiment is down, now it just depends on what happens with the actual trading fundamentals over the next 18-24 months.

My point about the shops is a direct reply to hopeful who mentioned about the HOF shops closing.

You’ve only got to look at ASOS cash flow statement, if they burn cash at the same rate as last year (bearing in mind the trading outlook will most likely be considerably worse) they’ll be getting stuck. No wonder they have had to go back to their banks. All this business with the supply chain and credit insurers hadn’t happened by accident.

You might think my comment is daft, this is the realty of what he does though and very successfully.

Tegop - the likelihood is that unless something can be pulled out of the bag, which I think given the priming facility is unlikely, the DIP lenders will ultimately decide CINE’s fate as they will have control when it comes to the creditors voting on whatever the D4E restructure is that Mooky is putting together.

I didn’t say anything about it having a £1 valuation. Only that whether or not the merger is appealing to lenders is dependant on the valuation they attach to Regal.

Hexam - completely agree mate. Would still be fun giving it a go though.

He doesn’t just buy shops. That’s his base though, then he acquires the brands to sell though to the shops. He owns a lot of the HOF supply chain now.

He’s been purchasing online business recently as well because the online model is in trouble, lots of them are not making any money and there is no sign of the end - we’re not even in recession yet.

You’ve just got to look at what he does when he invests in other companies. The only reason this might be different is that his son in law in now in charge. I’d be amazed if he’s not ultimately pulling the strings though as he doesn’t look like kind of guy who gives up control.

Hopeful - Mike Ashley’s starting point is a negotiation with landlords. If they don’t bend to his will he’s got no problem shutting shops. It’s an aggressive model - he’ll only keep a store open that’s got sustainable rent and will make money.

It’s pretty common sense when you think about it.

I said it’s a signal. Mike Ashley is a shark, he’s not daft. Debenhams is a good example as that’s exactly what he tried to do, albeit it failed. It’s worked plenty of times though, Frasers, French Connection, Evans Cycles, etc.

Asos having a few liquidity problems with their banking covenants and supply chain and Ashley turns up like a wolf at the door. He’s not made his money buying thriving companies, that’s for sure. He’s a turnaround specialist.

The bottom end of the market, the likes of Primark will always be on the high street as an online market for their offering isn't viable.

I think it's a signal that Ashley thinks ASOS is going to fail and he'll be building his holding bit by bit before swooping in at the first sign of administration.

He's already got bits of online, for example he's got a sizeable stake in Hugo Boss.

I haven’t got a clue mate.

I’ve never tried to out one of the models together other than needed for an exam. I usually look at PE, short interest and general background research for my own investments. Anything more sophisticated requires time that I don’t really have.

When I retire I reckon it’s the kind of thing I would look to do to keep the old grey matter ticking over.

Valuations don't quite work like that. It would depend on how much any potential acquirer would value the future free cash flows, plus how much debt those businesses have attached to them.

Don't forget that Cineworld do not expect pre COVID attendance in either FY22 or FY23.

It's worth pointing out that they will be paying the secured lenders who own the CINE debt, not the current CINE organisation. So current shareholders would not benefit from any deal, other than the CP claim falling away.

Hi LTH - it wasn't in the official court docs - there was some reporting on it the other week, completely unofficial of course.

"Dont think CP got a chance in hell of getting anything that easy, this chapter 11 being handled in US is nothing like how the case was handled in Canada with a bias judge who has close family ties with the CP CEO etc."

This would be a negotiation between CP and the first lien lenders (the DIP group). If that appeal fails Cineworld is basically finished in it's current legal form, although it probably is already as I think a Newco will emerge.