Member Info for WolfofWarks

That’s hardly indicative of the whole industry though.

If that was the case then they would unlikely exist.

Most of them are tucked away offshore anyway with no public ally available information.

Next?

There's no no way in the world Shein is more agile than Boohoo with its test and repeat and localised manufacturing.

You cannot be agile with a two week lead time shipping from China!

'Since the 90s hedge funds have underperformed against trackers. '

TFG - I'd expect this to be absolute nonsense. Where do you get the data form that backs this up? Hedgefunds are not public entities right?

Increasing treasury yields make almost every other investment less attractive. Mad to think the US 10 year is nearly at 5%, pretty much much risk free and outpaces virtually every dividend yield on the stock market other than the old banks, miners and insurance companies.

It stands to reason to me that those shares that felt the most pain from the changing macro conditions should benefit the most when they turn around. Highly simplistic I know but Boohoo has certainly been the victim of the economics.

It will take a patience and a strong stomach though and certainly not somewhere to have all your cash parked, although this is the case with any stock.

Hi Carefree - Debenhams commission hasn't been stripped out. On the analysts call they specifically stated that one of the reasons the non-core revenue drop is so large is because of Debehams revenue stated as commission rather than pure revenue so not really comparing apples with apples.

It’s unlikely that Shein have the money to buy Boohoo in my view.

If I was a betting man I would wager that the Boohoo demographic is one of the least affected by the cost of living crisis, especially at times of all time high employment.

Less likely to be affected by food, mortgage and energy inflation.

Plus I still think the COL crisis is overplayed by the media. I dont know about you guys but whenever I go out to a restaurant, cinema, etc, they are still very busy.

I think the COL crisis affects the more more than anything. Interesting stats around record savings levels as well although this might be expense of the markets.

This is why you should look at EBITDA and not just profit. Boohoo are cycling through large capital expenditure.

Profit does not equal cash and vice versa.

'Method is very simple and assumes stupidly conservative assumptions.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between 58 million pounds to 70 million pounds. So assume middle of that range £64m and apply typical x10 multiple. That's £640m enterprise value. Double the current SP.

Or for future assume 100% peak to trough decline in sales. Assume net sales stabilise at £1,000m (40% below today on annualised basis). That's prudent! Assume they hit top of the EBITDA range 8%. That's £800m EV at x10 EBITDA.

But this assumes sales stabilise at much lower level and there is no sales growth for years.

All IMHO DYOR

Happy'

Happy - Enterprise value is market cap plus debt

Re the sale of the building it doesnt matter what happens to the London office market, which is actually improving. What determines the value of the building is the different potential uses and redevleopment potential. After all the streets of London are paved in gold.

They dont need to sell anyway but it could be a lever that could be pulled if need be. Personally I didn't think it was a decent use of cash in the first place. With hindsight I'm sure they wouldn't have bought it.

'Give it up mate! Hedge funds aren't all that smart. Hardly any of them beat the market for one. '

This comment piqued my interest. What do you base this on? Most hedge funds are private companies in tax havens right?

Plus Mike Ashley is a businessmen and only invests in retail companies which are strategic investments aligned to his businesses rather than playing the markets.

So I think your average hedge fund guru probably understands far more about the markets than Mike ever would.

The disparity between the UK and US markets at time is ridiculous. My Uk shares are a sea of red whereas my US shares are flying today. Tesla is almost 6% up. Hopefully this feeds through to the UK tomorrow.

In all honesty I don't see what in the results could make the shorts want to close. I think if I was them I would feel confident for at least the next six months unless there is serious ungraded guidance, which seems extremely unlikely at this point in time.

We're talking incremental improvements at this point and no big drawn down of debt. I'm still wondering myself what the rationale is for keeping the RCF fully drawn down, to me it looks like we are incurring unnecessary finance costs which seems daft given all the measures being taken to improve costs.

Oke - I order aftershave and it came in a Debenhams box which suggests to me it would have come from Boohoo in Sheffield.

Realistically I think you are looking at Putin gone and acceptable successor to the west and obviously a retreat from Ukraine,

Neither of them is likely to happen in the short to medium term.

Insurance currently has its own tax - ITP which has risen in recent times from 5% to 12%. They might be able to give it parity with vat but at what cost to London?

That's just reminded me - they mentioned that some of the non-core sales decline was down to product being supplied via the Debenhams market place where they are recording commission rather than full sales, which the commissions being more profitbable.

Hi Oke - They must be supplying some of Debenhams stuff from the FCs as I've had an order delivered in a Debenham box unless they are using 3PL or supplying the companies with boxes.